User Name: Password:      Register - Lost password?

Forex News Blog
Back to The Headlines
Thursday May 14, 2009 - 12:47:27 GMT
Black Swan Capital - www.blackswantrading.com

Share This Story:
| | Email

Poking at a little thing called demand, again.


Key Reports Due (WSJ):
8:30 a.m. Initial Jobless Claims For May 9 Week: Expected: +10K. Previous: -34K.
8:30 a.m. Mar Producer Price Index: Expected: +0.3%. Previous: -1.2%.
8:30 a.m. Mar Producer Price Index,ex-food & energy: Expected: +0.2%. Previous: 0%.
10:00 a.m. DJ-BTMU Business Barometer For May 2: Previous: -0.8%.
10:30 a.m. May 8 EIA Natl Gas Inventories, in billion cubic feet

Free Webinar – Thursday, May 14th at 4:30 p.m. EDT
If you would like to learn more about our long-term view and how to play them using FX Options listed on the International Securities Exchange (ISE), please join me and Steve Meizinger, Director of Education for the ISE on Thursday, May 14th.  The ISE will be graciously sponsoring a webinar on “Spotting Longer-term Trends in the Currency Market and Using FX Options to Ride Those Trends” where I will expound on the key issues I discussed above and show you what we look at to develop our long-term alternative views.

To register to attend this event, please follow this link:  https://ise.webex.com/ise/onstage/g.php?p=7&t=m

Currency Camp – Friday, May 29th from 9 a.m. to 3 p.m. CDT
Black Swan Capital will be holding a one-day seminar in Chicago on May 29th. There we’ll discuss our global macro views, top trading ideas, mechanics of the FX market, various currency trading instruments and more. Click here to read more.

To register to attend this event, please follow this link:
http://www.blackswantrading.com/seminars/register

 


Quotable
“Very little of the great cruelty shown by men can really be attributed to cruel instinct. Most of it comes from thoughtlessness or inherited habit. The roots of cruelty, therefore, are not so much strong as widespread. But the time must come when inhumanity protected by custom and thoughtlessness will succumb before humanity championed by thought. Let us work that this time may come.”

            Albert Schweitzer

FX Trading – Poking at a little thing called demand, again. 

Let me quick say that stocks and the US dollar have turned this week. Sure, I may have been a few days early in expecting the move; but in watching the reaction to the news so far this week, risk-appetite has a few extra days (at least) to go hungry. As it pangs, we’ll find out whether a resumption of investor confidence and growing risk-appetite is in order ... or whether potential renewed economic and/or financial concern surfaces to significantly pressure risk-bound investments.

Ever since the beginning of bailout and stimulus efforts, the goal became: resurrect demand. It was almost an obvious plan of attack, since that’s what bolstered emerging markets, powered cheap-goods China, empowered consumption-happy Americans, emboldened risk-blind investors and virtually pumped the global economy along.

It was when demand hit the brakes that this whole system came unwound. [See Richard Bookstaber’s A Demon of Our Own Design where he discusses ‘tight coupling’ if you want a more academic account of how and why most everything came unraveled at once.]

The demand for natural resources – a very popularized topic during the inflationary boom time – was among the first indications that the global economy was shifting. Metals, energy and other materials used in manufacturing and construction took the hit. Specifically, when crude oil plummeted from record highs at nearly $150/barrel to roughly $45/barrel in less than six months, well ... let’s call it an ‘oil price shock.’

Crude would eventually push a few bucks lower. Since then it rallied to just over $60/barrel as of this week. But $60/barrel is a critical level, alone offering resistance to climbing oil prices.

The thing is, though, a chart of crude oil and a chart of the S&P 500 look a lot alike:

 (Charts unavailable in text format.)

Crude oil has followed the S&P 500 on the same dominant risk-appetite theme that had its grip around the markets for many, many months now. The potential for recovery drove stocks higher; rising stocks drove confidence higher; rising confidence garnered further risk-taking in the form of rising commodity prices. In other words, potential recovery implied potential demand. Demand (along with supply) drives commodity prices.

I saw a headline yesterday, I think it was, talking about OPEC and their decision to increase the supply of crude oil ... thinking they’ve now done enough to stem falling oil prices.

Then this morning: IEA predicts sharp fall in oil demand. For 2009, the International Energy Agency expects the sharpest decline in oil demand since 1981.

It’s news like this, absent less-bad-than-expected optimism that’s dominated the last two months, and softening prices that are going to have investors reconsidering the potential for recovery. Whether you think the answer to the economic crisis lies in demand stimulation or not, it seems obvious that prosperity won’t ensue until something major happens.

That may mean substantial demand growth. Or it may mean something more, structural rather than cyclical, if you will. Maybe China holds the key to door number one; or maybe they’re trying their hardest to pick the lock. But it’s going to take more than China to unlock door number two, in case door number one is welded shut. [I also noticed Chinese exports fell 23% in April, compared to only 17% in March.  That’s not exactly zoom-zoom to me.]

What’s bad for crude is good for dollars:

 (Chart unavailable in text format.)

Crude is an inflation hedge of sorts.  And the degree to which deflation will shock the crowd, we think it will be seen in oil prices quickly.  And of course, creeping deflation despite its insidious impact on the overleveraged, tends to be good for the world reserve currency at the moment.

Regards,

John Ross Crooks, III
Black Swan Capital LLC
www.blackswantrading.com

 

Forex Trading News

Forex Research

Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



Elevate Your Trading With The Amazing Trader!

The Amazing Trader includes:
  • Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.
  • Live trading strategy sessions.
  • Market Updates with Trading Tools.

Register To Test Your Amazing Trader


Trading Ideas for 18 October 2017

Register for the Amazing Trader

1.

Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

Wed 18 Oct
12:30 US- Housing Starts & Permits
14:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 19 Oct
01:30 AU- Employment
08:30 GB- Retail Sales
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 20 Oct
12:30 CA- Retail Sales & CPI
14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales

Forex Trading Outlook


Trading Opportunities


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue-- 08:30 GMT GB- CPI top tier confirmation of Inflation.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT DE- ZEW Survey second most important German monthly Survey.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT EZ- final HICP revision to flash report. Revisions are usually minor.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 13:15 GMT US- Industrial Production. Top output indicator.



  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 12:30 GMT US- Housing Starts and Permits revision to flash report. Useful housing leading indicator.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 14:30 GMT US- EIA Crude. Top WTI inventory measure.



  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 01:30 GMT AU- Employment. Top economic indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 02:00 GMT CN- GDP. Top economic indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Thu-- 08:30 GMT GB- Retail Sales. Top consumption indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 12:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless. Employment Indicator.



John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Daily Trading Chart Points Updated

EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Free Forex Database updated




TRADER ADVOCACY ARTICLES

Trader's Advocate Articles..

pic

Retail Forex Brokerage Changing!

Are you looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are more critical things to consider than you might have thought.

We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.

Our Best Brokers listing section includes:Forex Broker Reviews, Forex Broker Directory, Forex Broker Comparisons and advice on How to Choose a Forex Broker

If would like guidance, advice, or have any concerns at all ASK US. We are here to help you.

SEE Our Best Brokers List

Currency Trading Tools

  • Live rates, currency news, fx charts. 

  • Research reports and currency forecasts.

  • Foreign Exchange database and history.

  • Weekly economic calendar.

Directory of  Forex trading tools

 
Terms of Use    Disclaimer    Privacy Policy    Contact    Site Map


Forex Forum
Forex Trading Forum
Forex Forum + forex rates
Forex Forum Archives
Forex Forum RSS
Free Registration

Trading Forums
Currency Forum Guide
Forum Directory
Open Forum
Futures Forum
Political Forum
Forex Brokers
Compare Forex Brokers
Forex Broker News
Forex Broker Hotline

Online Forex Trading
Forex Trading Tools
Currency Trading Tools
Forex Database
FX Chart Points
Risk/Carry Trade Chart Points
Economic Calendar
Quicklinks to Economic Data
Currency Futures Swaps
Fibonacci Calculator
Currency Futures Calculator

Forex Education
Forex Learning Center
FX Trading Basics Course
Forex Trading Course
Forex Trading Handbook

Forex Analysis
Forex Forecasts
Interest Rate Forecasts
Central Bank Forecasts

FX Charts and Quotes
Live FX Rates
Live Global Market Quotes
Live Forex Charts
US Dollar Index Chart
Global Chart Gallery
Daily Market Tracker
Forex News
Forex Blog
Forex News
Forex Blog Archives
Forex News RSS
Forex Services
Forex Products
GVI Forex
Free Trials
FX Bookstore
FX Jobs and Careers
Jobs USA
Jobs UK
Jobs Canada

Forex Forum

The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.

Forex News

The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.

Currency Trading

Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by Global-View.com.

Forex Brokers

The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.

Forex Trading

Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.

FX Trading

Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.

Forex Blog

Global-View.com also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at Global-View.com. This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.

 

WARNING: FOREIGN EXCHANGE TRADING AND INVESTMENT IN DERIVATIVES CAN BE VERY SPECULATIVE AND MAY RESULT IN LOSSES AS WELL AS PROFITS. FOREIGN EXCHANGE AND DERIVATIVES TRADING IS NOT SUITABLE FOR MANY MEMBERS OF THE PUBLIC AND ONLY RISK CAPITAL SHOULD BE APPLIED. THE WEBSITE DOES NOT TAKE INTO ACCOUNT SPECIAL INVESTMENT GOALS, THE FINANCIAL SITUATION OR SPECIFIC REQUIREMENTS OF INDIVIDUAL USERS. YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER YOUR FINANCIAL SITUATION AND CONSULT YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISORS AS TO THE SUITABILITY TO YOUR SITUATION PRIOR TO MAKING ANY INVESTMENT OR ENTERING INTO ANY TRANSACTIONS.

Copyright ©1996-2014 Global-View. All Rights Reserved.
Hosting and Development by Blue 105