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FX Blog- GVI Forex Month Ahead Interest Rate Outlook for May 18, 2009

Central Bank Policy Outlook -- Key Interest Rates


Global Interest Rates


The Global-View.com Monetary Policy Outlook is prepared weekly by the trading professionals at GVI Forex. For information on the GVI Forex Service Click Here

18 May 2009

Upcoming Central Bank Meetings -- Monetary Profiles

Bank of Japan- Friday May 22, 2009

  • BOJ target rate (0.10%) already virtually at zero. No rate cut is possible.
  • Japan invented Quantitative Easing.





    JAPAN

    GVI BOJ Policy Meeting Preview

    • Decision: May 22, 2009
    • Current Overnight Target Rate: 0.10%
    • Expected decision: unch
    • Japanese interest rates virtually hit their theoretical 0% floor (0.10%). The central bank surprised many on December 22 by taking a page from the Fed's playbook and throwing everything but the kitchen sink at its weakening economy and an overvalued currency.

    BANK OF JAPAN Policy Objective: The Bank of Japan Law states that the Bank's monetary policy should be "aimed at, through the pursuit of price stability, contributing to the sound development of the national economy."

    Nationwide CPI

    The chart above shows year/year core nationwide CPI and the reported BOJ goal of between 0% and 2% for this price index. 

    Manufacturing PMI



    CHART: BOJ Quarterly Tankan Survey




    s-t rates

    The chart above shows the current three month libor rate, the current BOJ overnight rate target  and where the futures markets are currently trading three month rates for the specified periods in the future. The chart also includes comparisons of where these futures rates were trading most recently, a week ago and four weeks ago.  The chart provides a view on where the markets feel Japanese interest rates are headed.


    interest rates

    The chart above shows the Japanese overnight rate target, three month libor, and two- and ten-year bond yields over the past twelve months.





    John M. Bland is an author and co-founder and partner of Global-View.com. Prior to Global-View.com, he was a Vice-President and senior dealer in a forex inter-bank and futures trading arm of a subsidiary (ContiCurrency) of the Continental Grain Company in NYC. Previous to that, he was one of the early members of the Chemical Bank corporate advisory service in NYC, and also worked in international liability management for that bank. John holds an MBA from the Hass School at the University of California at Berkeley and a bachelors degree in International Economics from Berkeley.

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    Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



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    Mon 16 Oct
    01:30 CN- CPI
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    09:00 DE- ZEW Survey
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    Wed 18 Oct
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    • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue-- 08:30 GMT GB- CPI top tier confirmation of Inflation.

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    • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT EZ- final HICP revision to flash report. Revisions are usually minor.

    • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 13:15 GMT US- Industrial Production. Top output indicator.



    • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 12:30 GMT US- Housing Starts and Permits revision to flash report. Useful housing leading indicator.

    • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 14:30 GMT US- EIA Crude. Top WTI inventory measure.



    John M. Bland, MBA
    co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

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