Forex Blog - European Market Update: German economic sentiment rises for the seventh straight month; Risk appetite theme remains intact
European Market Update: German economic
sentiment rises for the seventh straight month; Risk appetite theme remains
*** ECONOMIC DATA ***
- (SP) Spain Mar Trade Balance: â‚¬ v -â‚¬5.87B prior
- (JP) Japan April Machine Tool Orders Y/Y: -80.4% v -80.4% prior
- (HU) Hungarian Avg Gross Wages Y/Y:4.3 % v 3.8%e
- (SP) Spain Mar Industrial Orders Y/Y: -20.6% v -31.3% prior
- (SW) Sweden Q1 Total number of Employees Y/Y: -0.8% v 0.3% prior
- (IT) Italian Mar Trade Balance: â‚¬82.0M v â‚¬336.0Me; Trade Balance EU: -â‚¬85.0M
v -â‚¬105.0M prior
- (NO) Norwegian GDP Q/Q: -0.4% v -1.0%e, GDP Mainland Norway Q/Q: -1.0% v
- (HK) Hong Kong Apr Unemployment Rate: 5.3% v 5.4%e
- (UK) April CPI M/M: 0.2% v 0.4%e; Y/Y: 2.3% v 2.4%e; Core CPI Y/Y: 1.5% v
- (UK) Apr RPI M/M: 0.1% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: -1.2% v -1.1%e; Retail Price Index:
211.5 v 211.6e, RPI Ex mortgages: 1.7% v 1.7%e
- (GE) May ZEW Survey Econ Sentiment: 31.1 v 20.0e; Current Situation: -92.8 v
-90.0e; Seventh straight increase for the Economic sentiment while the eleventh
consecutive decline for the current situation component
- (EU) May ZEW Econ Sentiment: 28.5 v 18.0e
- (EU) Mar Construction Output M/M: -1.0% v -0.6% prior, Y/Y: -8.7% v -8.6%
- In equities: European equity markets snapped their trend of lower openings
with a strong pre-market and opening level. Bullish, risk appetite rolling over
from NY and into the Asian session transferred into the European morning. This
sentiment ignored moderate earnings reports out of large cap UK
firms including Vodafone [VOD.UK], ICAP [IAP.UK] and SSL International
[SSL.UK]. Disappointing FY numbers, and an expected dividend cut out of Marks
and Spencer [MKS.UK] moved those shares, and the UK
based retail sector lower in early trades. This, however, was the only negative
equity movement. All other sectors significantly outperformed, UK banks
[RBS.UK], [LLOY.UK] were buoyed by comments that the Treasury may be shopping
stakes to sovereign wealth and private investment funds out of the FT. Steel
and heavy manufacturing moved higher, aided by an analyst action on
ArcelorMittal [MT.NV]. Continued bids in energy markets strengthened the
European energy complex with Total [FP.FR] ENI [ENI.IT] and Royal Dutch
[RDSA.UK] (ahead of what is expected to be a cantankerous AGM) all trading
higher. Markets broadly trended higher through the European morning and into
the 4:00EST hour. Outside of some regional retail underperformers, all equity
sectors and names traded up on broad risk appetite. 4:30EST data for UK April
CPI and RPI came in below market expectations, but in positive territory,
furthering the equity rally. Markets pulled back ahead of the 5:00EST German
ZEW survey for May, but the 7th consecutive positive result, at 31.1, well
ahead of the 20.0e pushed European bourses to their best levels. As the 5:00EST
hour developed, equities trended off their best levels remaining broadly
positive. By 5:15ESt, the DAX continued to outperform, up +1.60% while the CAC
and FTSE remained under the +1.00% hurdle.
- In individual equities -(UK)
UK has started
talks with sovereign wealth funds and other investors about selling stakes in
some UK banks -
FT. UK Financial Investments Ltd, which was created to oversee the government's
stakes in various banks, has had "substantial" contact with possible
investors, including UK
institutions and oversees organizations such as sovereign wealth funds. The UK
government has a 43.5% stake in Lloyds and a 70% stake in RBS. || Marks and
Spencer [MKS.UK] Reports FY08 Net Â£508M v Â£713Me, Rev Â£9.1B v Â£8.9Be, cutting
dividend, Reports UK LFL sales -5.9% y/y:
General Merchandise LFL sales -6.9% y/y; Food LFL sales -5.0% y/y, Sees 2009/10
Gross Margin down 125 - 175bps, Sees 2009/10 CAPEX at Â£400M v Â£652M y/y, Net
debts Â£2.5B v Â£3.1B y/y. || Vodafone [VOD.UK] Reports FY09 Net Â£3.1B v Â£4.7Be,
Rev Â£41.0B v Â£40.7Be. Guides FY10 Adj Op Profit Â£11.0-11.8B. Challenging
environment; recent revenue trends assumed to continue. EBITDA margin expected
to decline at a slightly slower rate || Burberry [BRBY.UK] Reports FY08 Adj
pretax profit Â£175M v Â£165Me, Rev Â£1.20B v Â£1.2Be . Full year div maintained at
12p/shr. Net cash of Â£8M at year end (2008: net debt Â£64M). Comparable store
sales increased by 1.1% in the year (H1: up 3.4%; H2: down 0.5%). Guides FY9/10
CAPEX at Â£60M (ex Japan).
See cost savings of Â£15-20M from accelerated programs. || VW [VOW.GE]German
Lower Saxony Spokesperson: Plan to maintain 20% stake in VW following a
potential VW-Porsche tie up. No plans to raise stake. See the Porshe and Piech
families as lacking unity in decisions. Merger would have large benefits,
companies should seek foreign investors. || Gazprom [GAZP.RU] Update: Ordered
by Russian gov't to slash its dividend amidst falling demand and shrinking
exports - Times. Company would cut the payment to its investors by 86% to a
mere 37 kopecks per share - Â¾p in sterling terms. In a statement issued by
Gazprom's board yesterday, the decision to make a drastic cut in dividend was
made "pursuant to the Russian Government's directive". ||Bank of Ireland
[BKIR.IR] Reports FY09 Net â‚¬59M v â‚¬222.7Me, pre tax loss â‚¬7.0M v profit â‚¬195Me,
Op profit (pre impairment) â‚¬1.89B v â‚¬791Me. Will not pay final dividend (as
expected). Tier 1 ratio 12.0% v 8.1% y/y. Market conditions will continue to be
difficult for coming period. FY08 impairment charges at â‚¬1.44B v â‚¬227M y/y.
Expects FY09-11 impairment charges at
- Speakers: ECB's Kranjec commented that the ECB was unified on next policy
moves. He reiterated that the central bank would provide technical details of
covered bond purchases at next month policy meeting. He also noted that there
were promising sings of economic recovery taking hold
|| ECB's Tumpel Gugerell commented that she was unsure at this point in time if
economic crisis was near an end, but situation had stabilized || Polish Central
Filar commented that GDP growth was still possible for both Q1 and for 2009 as
a whole. Cutting interest rates will not alter market rates. MPC should change
its policy bias || German Deputy Econ Min commented that credit supply to face
test this summer || ZEW economists commented that there are signs that recent
optimism was supported by modest signs of recovery in real economy. However,
the officials noted that the worst has still yet to come for the labor markets.
It did note that exports and incoming orders were beginning to rise again and
that the decline in industrial production has ended. ZEW economists noted that
both" L" and "V" shaped recoveries would be in line with
survey results. It saw no signs that inflation pressures are building within
next 6 months nor did survey participants see deflationary pressure at this
time || Russian Econ Min Nabiullina commented that the Russian economy could
contract by up to 8% in 2009 and global growth seen off by 0.4% this year.
- In Currencies: The session was continued to be characterized by a renewed
sense of risk appetite. Both the USD and JPY were softer among the major pairs
as commodities continued to move higher. Growing speculation three American
banks would repay a combined $45B of government funds fueled optimism that
perhaps the worst of the financial crisis was over. German ZEW data also
provided some additional optimism as the economic sentiment rose for the
seventh straight month. EUR/USD tested 1.3655 following the
better-than-expected German data. The GBP was leading the charge in the session
as the GBP/USD pair probed its best level since mid-December at it hovered just
under the 1.55 handle and EUR/GBP regain a footing below the 0.8800 for the
bulk of the morning. The JPY was mildly weaker with the EUR/JPY cross rose over
130 pips during the morning to test 131.85 before consolidating its gains.
GBP/JPY approached the 150 area before retreating ahead of the NY morning.
- With both energy and metals in positive territory, the AUD and CAD currencies
were firmer. NYMEX July crude held above the $60 handle throughout the European
morning for its best level since early Nov 2008. Spot Gold and silver held onto
gains while copper recovered from its Asian session losses. Dealers noting that
sterling and euros for its reserves
-In Fixed Income: Government Bonds have been offered this morning as investors
jump on the risk bandwagon, with longer dated issues bearing the brunt of the
selling. The German yield curve reached its steepest level in over a decade,
with 2s10s reaching 216bpbs in early trade. Gilts received a brief lift from a
weaker than expected inflation data, before largely surrendering their gains as
the morning wore on , whilst the benchmark 10y T- Note has moved back above
3.25% for the first time in over a week. Further indications of reduced money
market tensions were evident in the swaps complex where 2y USD swap spreads
have reached their narrowest level in over two years, below 35bps. Ireland
managed to comfortably auction â‚¬1B in 2014 and 2019 Bonds, assuaging concerns
over the country's ability to fund its massive deficit and putting rest to
broader questions sustainability of the EMU, at least for the time being.
- Credit Crisis: Financial Times discussed that the hedging costs for companies
might rise due to proposed regulation. The article noted that companies using
trillions of dollars of derivatives contracts to hedge interest rate, currency
and commodity price risks could face higher costs under the proposed overhaul
of US rules on derivatives.
*** NOTES ***
- The risk appetite continues to gain as market participants continue to
believe that the worst of the global economic crisis was over. Growing
speculation three American banks would repay a combined $45B of government
funds fueled additional optimism
- German May ZEW economic sentiment survey rises for the seventh straight month
but current situation falls for the eleventh straight month. The debate between
"V" shape or "L" shape recovery will continue for some time
- South Koreas
business start up/failure ratio at 9-month highs.
diversifies out of USD somewhat as it buys GBP and EUR
- Treasury to name first group of re-payers next few weeks. GS AXP JPM almost
certain. MS wants to be.
- IMF: Consumer demand in advanced economies may not recover as much as in
- Looking Ahead:
- 8:00 (PD) Polish Apr Employment M/M: -0.4%
expected versu -0.5% prior; Y/Y: -1.5% expected versus -0.9% prior
- 8:00 (PD) Apr Avg gross wage M/M: -1.5%
expected versus 4.3% prior; Y/Y: 4.5% expected versus 5.7% prior
- 8:30 (US) Building Permits: 530k expected v 516k prior
- 9:00 (BE) Belgium May Consumer Confidence: No estimate versus -22.0 prior
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Mon 19 Mar 2018 Tue 20 Mar 2018 AA 9:30 GB- CPI A 10:00 DE- ZEW Survey Wed 21 Mar 2018 AA 03:00 AU- Employment AA 9:30 GB- Employment A 12:30 US- Current Account AA 14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales A 14:30 US- EIA Crude A A18:00 US- Fed Rate Decision A 21:00 NZ- RBNZ Rate Decision Thu 22 Mar 2018 AA All Day flash PMIs AA 9:30 GB- Retail Sales AA 12:00 GB- Bank Of England Decision A 13:30 US- Weekly Jobless Fri 23 Mar 2018 AA 12:30 CA- CPI/Retail Sales A 12:30 US- Durable Goods A 14:00 US- New Homes Sales
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