- US equities made up for yesterday afternoon's sell off in the pre-market this
morning, with all three major indices opening stronger and extending gains in
the early going. Equities turned over in the wake of a National Association of
Realtors report, which indicated Q1 real estate activity was -12.9% y/y and
-4.88% q/q, and forecasted a continued reduction in commercial real estate
activity for next 6-9 months. Front-month NYMEX crude tested above $62 to hit
six-month highs before trading off a bit with equities, while gold breeched
$940/oz. Commodities are getting a boost from real weakness in the greenback,
with the euro, pound, loonie and Swiss Franc all making fresh multi-month highs
against the dollar.
- Treasury Secretary Geithner is testifying before the Senate this morning on
the financial sector. This comes after the Treasury said the vaunted
Public-Private Investment Program (PPIP) would commence within the next six weeks,
in line with recent comments on timing out of the White House and the FDIC.
Note that yesterday the FDIC had said it might go ahead with plans to float a
"pilot sale" of toxic "legacy" assets without any
government financing, implying that there could be a part of the program
lacking a "public" component, although the Treasury has said nothing
regarding this proposal today. Geither has also noted that there is $124B of
funding left in TARP. In addition, the Wall Street Journal reports that the
Obama Administration is working out plans to give a Federal agency authority to
police mortgages and other consumer-oriented financial products as part of the
broader overhaul of financial regulation.
- Shares of Bank of America are up 8% in the early going after the company
confirmed that it has sold 1.25B shares since May 8th, or just short of 20% of
its market cap, worth $13.5B, in its quest to satisfy government capital
requirements that emerged from the stress test. The bank also said it is
considering a conversion of preferred shares to common equity as the means to
raise the rest. Citi has also risen somewhat in the early going, while the rest
of the leading banks have dropped into negative territory.
- In earnings, Target outperformed in the first quarter, beating earnings
expectations and meeting revenue targets. Executives displayed confidence on
the conference call, noting that the credit card business is improving,
economic conditions seem to be stabilizing a bit. Warehouse retailer BJ's came
in more or less even with expectations and guided in line. TGT is up 6%, while
BJ has steadily sunk into the red after making modest gains before the open.
Manufacturing giant Deere was a bit ahead of
the Street, although its sales guidance for the next quarter and the rest of
the year still projects big double-digit declines. HP reported in line
yesterday after the close. Shares of the tech giant are headed lower in early
trading, down 5% as investors focus on the firm's weaker revenue forecasts.
Troubled homebuilder Toll Brothers reported preliminary second-quarter revenue
results, noting that revenue was running ahead of expectations. The CFO warned,
however, that numerous other aspects of the overall economy are keeping the outlook
unclear at this point.
- In currencies, higher commodity prices in both energy and metals fed into
broad USD weakness during the New York
session. The dollar was lower against its major European, Asian and North
American counterparts as several critical levels were breeched. Market
participants continue to believe that the worst of the financial and global
crisis is over and risk appetite continues to rise. The Portugal Finance
Minister shook things up this morning, stating that the EU has no concerns over
stronger a euro, also forecasting that the EU economy would hit bottom in
current quarter, helping to propel EUR/USD above the 1.3650 level to test just
below 1.38, its highest level since the first week of the year. Dealers are now
eyeing the 1.3740 as the key short-term pivot point for insight on the directional
momentum in the pair.
- The GBP/USD hit fresh 6-months highs and broke above the 200-day moving
average of for the first time last July as it tested 1.5625. USD/CHF dipped
below the 1.0980 level during the course of the NY morning to also retest its
lowest level since Jan 5th. The loony hit fresh seven-month highs against the
USD as the USD/CAD pair kissed 1.1400. Looking ahead, the focus will turn
towards the BoJ policy meeting later this week and to see whether it decides to
accept foreign debt as collateral for its funding operations. The BoJ is
expected to upgrade its economic assessment in the upcoming monthly report.
USD/JPY was at 95.30 as the New York
morning wound down.
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Mon 19 Mar 2018 Tue 20 Mar 2018 AA 9:30 GB- CPI A 10:00 DE- ZEW Survey Wed 21 Mar 2018 AA 03:00 AU- Employment AA 9:30 GB- Employment A 12:30 US- Current Account AA 14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales A 14:30 US- EIA Crude A A18:00 US- Fed Rate Decision A 21:00 NZ- RBNZ Rate Decision Thu 22 Mar 2018 AA All Day flash PMIs AA 9:30 GB- Retail Sales AA 12:00 GB- Bank Of England Decision A 13:30 US- Weekly Jobless Fri 23 Mar 2018 AA 12:30 CA- CPI/Retail Sales A 12:30 US- Durable Goods A 14:00 US- New Homes Sales
John M. Bland, MBA co-founding Partner, Global-View.com
Veteran FX Trader, Max McKegg, forecasts all the Major currencies and the Australasians; providing Daily and Medium Term Trading forecasts to subscribers, who include large Banks the world over, as well as individual traders in more than 30 different countries.
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