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Thursday May 21, 2009 - 12:28:17 GMT
FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com

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FX Thoughts for the day : 21-May-2009 - 1215 GMT

EURO, JAP YEN and EURO-YEN
---------------------------
Read our current comments and trade recommendations on EUR-USD, USD-JPY and EUR-JPY by registering at
http://www.kshitij.com/fxthoughts/fxthoughts.shtml#register

Our comments on Dollar-Swiss, Sterling Pound and Australian Dollar are given below
-------------------------------------------------------------


USD-CHF @ 1.1026/29...Spikes below 1.0965
-------------------------------------
R: 1.1024 / 1.1054-79 / 1.1106
S: 1.0980-65 / 1.0909 / 1.0874
The Support at 1.0980 has been tested during the day and breached for a while as it stopped us out of the Long and has since bounced back towards current levels. What led to the debacle/ spike which proved negative for us is yet to be figured out as the Dollar was gaining across the board except against Swiss.

However, the bottomline is the market is finding very difficult to break past the Support comprehensively. Till this holds, Swiss can be bought for rise towards 1.14, but a breach of this Support is likely to take Swiss lower towards 1.0750 over the next few days. If it manages to break past this Support today during the US session, we might see it being Supported near the Projected Max Low for the day at 1.0874. However, till it does not, one might like to play around the Support.
 

GBP-USD @ 1.5660/65...Sharp fall
---------------------------------
R: 1.5676 / 1.5709 / 1.5900
S: 1.5620-05 / 1.5540 / 1.5490
Cable fell sharply post bad Business Investment numbers that shows the markets might be being too optimistic of the revival happening soon. Business Investment has fallen -5.5% q/q as against an expectation of -4.0%. It spiked below the 200-DMA at 1.5540 and has since then bounced towards 1.5690. Till the Support at 200-DMA holds, chances of 1.6050 cannot be ruled out. But a break below is likely to see it dip towards 1.5383. Unemployment claims are likely to show bad numbers as indicated by the Fed yesterday which would likely keep the pair stronger. However if the rise of risk appetite (as seen over the last few days) is truncated, Cable might see a dip once again towards 1.54-1.55 where there exists a long term trendline Support on the monthly charts. To see the monthly chart of Cable, click on:
http://www.kshitij.com/graphgallery/gbpmth.shtml#mth

What a volatility? Our morning reports read "A Sharp rise" while the evening reports read "Sharp fall". The volatility has taken the market by surprise. Let's see where from here...


 
 
AUD-USD @ 0.7709/12...Mixed
--------------------------
R: 0.7744 / 0.7808 / 0.7900
S: 0.7693 / 0.7645-30 / 0.7598
Aussie, too, had fallen towards 0.7670 during the day and has then risen towards 0.7724. It has Support of the 8-DMA at 0.7640 which is likely to hold during the US session. The Projected Max Low for the day is at 0.7645. If Aussie dipes towards this level, we would like to go long. Hence we retain our Limit Buy order on Aussie. If this holds, further gains towards 0.79 may not be ruled out while a break of the Support may next target over the next few days. However, it is likely to stay within the range of 0.7645-0.7808 during the US session.

Limit Buy Order:
Buy AUD 10K at 0.7660, SL 0.7600, TP Open


Happy Trading!

 

 

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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue-- 08:30 GMT GB- CPI top tier confirmation of Inflation.

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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT EZ- final HICP revision to flash report. Revisions are usually minor.

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John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

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