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Thursday May 21, 2009 - 16:22:18 GMT
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Forex Blog - US Market Update

Today 11:19am EST/03:19pm GMT

US Market Update

Dow -151 S&P -17.4 NASDAQ -3

- The sell-off that got started yesterday afternoon following the release of the April 29th FOMC minutes has carried over to NY morning trade, with US equity indices opening down and heading lower. The downbeat message of the Fed minutes, with its outlook for a steeper GDP decline and greater unemployment in 2009, has been compounded by yet another all-time high in weekly jobless claims. The May Philly Fed Index was slightly lower than expected (although employment and inventory subcomponents were markedly better than in April). The Congressional Budget Office added its two cents, noting that its March economic forecast was too optimistic and would be revised lower. On the brighter side, Radar Logic said in March home prices rose on a m/m basis in 11 of the 25 metropolitan areas it monitors in the RPX 25-MSA, while in six more areas prices decreased less in March than in February, marking at least a less bad if not better trend in home values. Last night, former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan said things have unquestionably improved globally, with "extraordinary improvement" in the Libor-OIS spread. The US 3-month TED spread drifted below 50 basis points.


- Front-month NYMEX crude is come off the highs of recent days, falling nearly $2 to trade around $60 eyeing the weak stock action. June natural Gas is swooning 7% to trade at $3.66 down almost a full dollar from the May high made a little more than a week ago. Weekly inventories rose by a robust 103 BCF in the latest week. Other commodities are generally lower across the board as the selling the Dollar takes a breather. Copper -4% while Corn and Wheat give back 1.5%.


- US Treasuries were the early beneficiary of weak stocks and continued momentum from yesterday's FOMC minutes. Prices have moved lower though, since the Treasury said they would be selling another $101B in notes next week. The 10-year yield is just below 3.2%.


- In tech, strong earnings reports from Tech Data, Intuit and Brocade are helping these three firms buck the trend this morning, with shares of all three up around 10% in early trading, while shares of Suntech power are getting bogged down by the firm's 20M secondary offering (12.8% of shares outstanding) despite better than expected Q1 results. Suntech managed a $0.01 per share profit and guided moderate revenue growth next quarter, outperforming results from fellow solar names JASO and SOLF earlier this week. STP's CEO said that Europe continued to be the biggest source of solar demand in the first quarter, although it expect further market diversification due to recently introduced stimulus initiatives in high potential markets.


- Another round of retailers released varying first quarter results yesterday and today. Department store retailer Stein Mart is the standout, doubling its profit on a y/y basis and blowing out consensus estimates for the quarter, despite an 8% decline in same-store sales. Note that the firm's gross margins in the quarter doubled on a q/q basis, while its effective tax rate was down significantly thanks to the deployment of various deferred tax assets. Shares of SMRT are up around 50%. On the other hand, GameStop and New York & Co. are both down more than 18% after more or less in line results. GME's guidance for the next quarter was below consensus estimates, while NWY forecasted another big quarterly loss in Q2 (versus expectations of a small profit. Shares of Buckle, Ross Stores and Barnes & Noble are up 5-8% after strong quarterly results. Note that BKS managed to cut it loss to a much smaller figure, and expects to be profitable next quarter.


- In currencies, the economic data weighed on risk appetite with some retracement of earlier sharp moves during the New York session. Sterling managed to claw its way back to only small losses sustained against the major pairs after S&P's big call as UK officials and rating agencies did their best to reassure markets about Britain's budget situation. The euro saw some of its strength whittled away as dealers focused on press speculation that Spanish regional bank Caja Madrid might skip interest payments on two bonds due to rising defaults on mortgages backing the debt, the first halt in such payments by a Spanish bank during the financial crisis. EUR/USD moved off overnight highs of 1.3839 to test the 1.3730 area during the New York morning. EUR/GBP moved off its 0.8870 highs to drift back towards the 0.8865 area. CHF was softer on chatter the Bank of International Settlements (BIS) was "checking prices" in EUR/CHF. Commodity currencies moved off their best levels as oil retreated from its six-month highs on concerns over the 'shape' of any economic recovery. USD/CAD retesting its pivotal hourly level of 1.1480.

 

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All information provided by Trade The News (a product of Trade The News, Inc. "referred to as TTN hereafter") is for informational purposes only. Information provided is not meant as investment advice nor is it a recommendation to Buy or Sell securities. Although information is taken from sources deemed reliable, no guarantees or assurances can be made to the accuracy of any information provided. 1. Information can be inaccurate and/or incomplete 2. Information can be mistakenly re-released or be delayed, 3. Information may be incorrect, misread, misinterpreted or misunderstood 4. Human error is a business risk you are willing to assume 5. Technology can crash or be interrupted without notice 6. Trading decisions are the responsibility of traders, not those providing additional information. Trade The News is not liable (financial and/or non-financial) for any losses that may arise from any information provided by TTN. Trading securities involves a high degree of risk, and financial losses can and do occur on a regular basis and are part of the risk of trading and investing.

 

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Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

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Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



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15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
15:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 21 Dec
03:00 JP- BOJ Decision
13:30 CA- CPI & Retail Sales
13:30 US Weely Jobless
13:30 US- GDP
Fri 22 Dec
09:30 US- GB- GDP
13:30 US- core PCE Deflator & Presonal Income
15:00 US- New Homes Sales
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17:00 US- early Closes
Mon 25 Dec
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