- The sell-off that got started yesterday afternoon following the release of
the April 29th FOMC minutes has carried over to NY morning trade, with US
equity indices opening down and heading lower. The downbeat message of the Fed
minutes, with its outlook for a steeper GDP decline and greater unemployment in
2009, has been compounded by yet another all-time high in weekly jobless
claims. The May Philly Fed Index was slightly lower than expected (although
employment and inventory subcomponents were markedly better than in April). The
Congressional Budget Office added its two cents, noting that its March economic
forecast was too optimistic and would be revised lower. On the brighter side,
Radar Logic said in March home prices rose on a m/m basis in 11 of the 25
metropolitan areas it monitors in the RPX 25-MSA, while in six more areas
prices decreased less in March than in February, marking at least a less bad if
not better trend in home values. Last night, former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan
said things have unquestionably improved globally, with "extraordinary
improvement" in the Libor-OIS spread. The US
3-month TED spread drifted below 50 basis points.
- Front-month NYMEX crude is come off the highs of recent days, falling nearly
$2 to trade around $60 eyeing the weak stock action. June natural Gas is
swooning 7% to trade at $3.66 down almost a full dollar from the May high made
a little more than a week ago. Weekly inventories rose by a robust 103 BCF in
the latest week. Other commodities are generally lower across the board as the
selling the Dollar takes a breather. Copper -4% while Corn and Wheat give back
- US Treasuries were the early beneficiary of weak stocks and continued
momentum from yesterday's FOMC minutes. Prices have moved lower though, since
the Treasury said they would be selling another $101B in notes next week. The
10-year yield is just below 3.2%.
- In tech, strong earnings reports from Tech Data, Intuit and Brocade are
helping these three firms buck the trend this morning, with shares of all three
up around 10% in early trading, while shares of Suntech power are getting
bogged down by the firm's 20M secondary offering (12.8% of shares outstanding)
despite better than expected Q1 results. Suntech managed a $0.01 per share
profit and guided moderate revenue growth next quarter, outperforming results
from fellow solar names JASO and SOLF earlier this week. STP's CEO said that Europe
continued to be the biggest source of solar demand in the first quarter,
although it expect further market diversification due to recently introduced
stimulus initiatives in high potential markets.
- Another round of retailers released varying first quarter results yesterday
and today. Department store retailer Stein Mart is the standout, doubling its
profit on a y/y basis and blowing out consensus estimates for the quarter,
despite an 8% decline in same-store sales. Note that the firm's gross margins
in the quarter doubled on a q/q basis, while its effective tax rate was down
significantly thanks to the deployment of various deferred tax assets. Shares
of SMRT are up around 50%. On the other hand, GameStop and New York & Co.
are both down more than 18% after more or less in line results. GME's guidance
for the next quarter was below consensus estimates, while NWY forecasted
another big quarterly loss in Q2 (versus expectations of a small profit. Shares
of Buckle, Ross Stores and Barnes & Noble are up 5-8% after strong quarterly
results. Note that BKS managed to cut it loss to a much smaller figure, and
expects to be profitable next quarter.
- In currencies, the economic data weighed on risk appetite with some
retracement of earlier sharp moves during the New York
session. Sterling managed to claw
its way back to only small losses sustained against the major pairs after
S&P's big call as UK
officials and rating agencies did their best to reassure markets about Britain's
budget situation. The euro saw some of its strength whittled away as dealers
focused on press speculation that Spanish regional bank Caja Madrid
might skip interest payments on two bonds due to rising defaults on mortgages
backing the debt, the first halt in such payments by a Spanish bank during the
financial crisis. EUR/USD moved off overnight highs of 1.3839 to test the
1.3730 area during the New York
morning. EUR/GBP moved off its 0.8870 highs to drift back towards the 0.8865
area. CHF was softer on chatter the Bank of International Settlements (BIS) was
"checking prices" in EUR/CHF. Commodity currencies moved off their
best levels as oil retreated from its six-month highs on concerns over the
'shape' of any economic recovery. USD/CAD retesting its pivotal hourly level of
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Tue 17 July 2018 AA 08:30 GB- Employment A 13:15 US- Industrial Production AA 14:00 US-Powell Testimony Wed 18 July 2018 AA 08:30 GB- CPI A 12:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits AA 14:00 US-Powell Testimony Thu 19 July 2018 AA 1:30 AU- Employment AA 08:30 GB- Retail Sales A 14:30 US- EIA Crude A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless Fri 20 Jun 2018 A 12:30 CA- CPI/Retail Sales
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