- The sell-off that got started yesterday afternoon following the release of
the April 29th FOMC minutes has carried over to NY morning trade, with US
equity indices opening down and heading lower. The downbeat message of the Fed
minutes, with its outlook for a steeper GDP decline and greater unemployment in
2009, has been compounded by yet another all-time high in weekly jobless
claims. The May Philly Fed Index was slightly lower than expected (although
employment and inventory subcomponents were markedly better than in April). The
Congressional Budget Office added its two cents, noting that its March economic
forecast was too optimistic and would be revised lower. On the brighter side,
Radar Logic said in March home prices rose on a m/m basis in 11 of the 25
metropolitan areas it monitors in the RPX 25-MSA, while in six more areas
prices decreased less in March than in February, marking at least a less bad if
not better trend in home values. Last night, former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan
said things have unquestionably improved globally, with "extraordinary
improvement" in the Libor-OIS spread. The US
3-month TED spread drifted below 50 basis points.
- Front-month NYMEX crude is come off the highs of recent days, falling nearly
$2 to trade around $60 eyeing the weak stock action. June natural Gas is
swooning 7% to trade at $3.66 down almost a full dollar from the May high made
a little more than a week ago. Weekly inventories rose by a robust 103 BCF in
the latest week. Other commodities are generally lower across the board as the
selling the Dollar takes a breather. Copper -4% while Corn and Wheat give back
- US Treasuries were the early beneficiary of weak stocks and continued
momentum from yesterday's FOMC minutes. Prices have moved lower though, since
the Treasury said they would be selling another $101B in notes next week. The
10-year yield is just below 3.2%.
- In tech, strong earnings reports from Tech Data, Intuit and Brocade are
helping these three firms buck the trend this morning, with shares of all three
up around 10% in early trading, while shares of Suntech power are getting
bogged down by the firm's 20M secondary offering (12.8% of shares outstanding)
despite better than expected Q1 results. Suntech managed a $0.01 per share
profit and guided moderate revenue growth next quarter, outperforming results
from fellow solar names JASO and SOLF earlier this week. STP's CEO said that Europe
continued to be the biggest source of solar demand in the first quarter,
although it expect further market diversification due to recently introduced
stimulus initiatives in high potential markets.
- Another round of retailers released varying first quarter results yesterday
and today. Department store retailer Stein Mart is the standout, doubling its
profit on a y/y basis and blowing out consensus estimates for the quarter,
despite an 8% decline in same-store sales. Note that the firm's gross margins
in the quarter doubled on a q/q basis, while its effective tax rate was down
significantly thanks to the deployment of various deferred tax assets. Shares
of SMRT are up around 50%. On the other hand, GameStop and New York & Co.
are both down more than 18% after more or less in line results. GME's guidance
for the next quarter was below consensus estimates, while NWY forecasted
another big quarterly loss in Q2 (versus expectations of a small profit. Shares
of Buckle, Ross Stores and Barnes & Noble are up 5-8% after strong quarterly
results. Note that BKS managed to cut it loss to a much smaller figure, and
expects to be profitable next quarter.
- In currencies, the economic data weighed on risk appetite with some
retracement of earlier sharp moves during the New York
session. Sterling managed to claw
its way back to only small losses sustained against the major pairs after
S&P's big call as UK
officials and rating agencies did their best to reassure markets about Britain's
budget situation. The euro saw some of its strength whittled away as dealers
focused on press speculation that Spanish regional bank Caja Madrid
might skip interest payments on two bonds due to rising defaults on mortgages
backing the debt, the first halt in such payments by a Spanish bank during the
financial crisis. EUR/USD moved off overnight highs of 1.3839 to test the
1.3730 area during the New York
morning. EUR/GBP moved off its 0.8870 highs to drift back towards the 0.8865
area. CHF was softer on chatter the Bank of International Settlements (BIS) was
"checking prices" in EUR/CHF. Commodity currencies moved off their
best levels as oil retreated from its six-month highs on concerns over the
'shape' of any economic recovery. USD/CAD retesting its pivotal hourly level of
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Mon 19 Mar 2018 Tue 20 Mar 2018 AA 9:30 GB- CPI A 10:00 DE- ZEW Survey Wed 21 Mar 2018 AA 03:00 AU- Employment AA 9:30 GB- Employment A 12:30 US- Current Account AA 14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales A 14:30 US- EIA Crude A A18:00 US- Fed Rate Decision A 21:00 NZ- RBNZ Rate Decision Thu 22 Mar 2018 AA All Day flash PMIs AA 9:30 GB- Retail Sales AA 12:00 GB- Bank Of England Decision A 13:30 US- Weekly Jobless Fri 23 Mar 2018 AA 12:30 CA- CPI/Retail Sales A 12:30 US- Durable Goods A 14:00 US- New Homes Sales
John M. Bland, MBA co-founding Partner, Global-View.com
Veteran FX Trader, Max McKegg, forecasts all the Major currencies and the Australasians; providing Daily and Medium Term Trading forecasts to subscribers, who include large Banks the world over, as well as individual traders in more than 30 different countries.
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The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.
The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.
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The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.
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Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.
Global-View.com also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at Global-View.com. This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.
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