US jobs data disappointed investors, prompting a broad selloff in equities. The
S&P500 plunged at the open, and remained weak to close down 1.7%. Chartists
will point to Wednesday's key day reversal as the warning, and bears will note
VIX jumped back over 30 (it appears 30 is the new 40, the psychological
demarcation between optimism and pessimism). A significant jolt to US sentiment came from Standard and Poor's
unexpected revision of the United Kingdom's sovereign (foreign currency) credit rating
from AAA to AAA (negative outlook), citing the high government debt levels
projected over the medium term. The announcement affected many asset classes in
many countries, including US 10 year treasuries which sold off by 17bp. Credit
default swaps for the UK, relative to Germany, were 5bp higher on the day. US 3mth Libor
fell, as has been usual, but by a larger 5.5bp to 0.66%.
While negative events have benefited
the USD in the cycle, expectations that the US could be in line for the ratings chopping block
saw the dollar index weaken by 0.9%. This breakdown in correlations saw EUR
jump higher to around 1.39 at midday NY, after spending the European session
fixed at 1.38 (some countries on holiday). GBP fell from 1.5800 to
1.5515 around the Standard & Poor's news, but climbed back over the next 6
hours to 1.5890, a 6-month high. USD/JPY posted a 2-month low, at 94.
AUD was supported by USD weakness, the UK's rating producing a prolonged dip to 0.7670
before recovering to 0.7795. There was speculation the RBA may have sold AUD
above 0.7800. NZD dipped a cent on the rating, to 0.6015, but is
back around 0.6100. AUD/NZD slipped to a lower 1.27 to 1.28 range. NZ interest
rate swaps rates are 5bp higher this morning, following US and AU rates.
US Philly Fed posted virtually no
headline improvement in May,
rising 1.8pts to -22.6, indeed the new orders index was slightly weaker.
Shipments and jobs, however, posted more significant gains, but even these
readings are still consistent with sharply contracting activity.
US leading index posted its first
monthly rise since June last year in April. Almost half of the 1.0% gain was due to the surging stock market;
interest rates and consumer confidence explained most of the rest although
lower initial jobless claims and the work-week also contributed. This is a
positive signal although a turning point is not usually called until three
consecutive positives are recorded.
US initial jobless claims fell 12k
to 631k last week (the prior week
was boosted by Chrysler related layoffs) but remained within the 605k to 674k
range that has prevailed since the end of January. This is the payrolls survey
week and with the 4 week claims average of 629k comparing to 648k in the same
week in April, there are grounds for expecting a modestly smaller fall in
non-farm payrolls in May compared to April.
Japanese tertiary activity index
slumps 4%. The index, which
tracks household and business spending on phone calls, power and transport,
recorded its sharpest fall in 12yrs, well below expectations of a 1.5% decline.
Coming on the heels of the horror 15.2% annualised rate of contraction in Q1
GDP, the result underscores how the export-led slump is now permeating
throughout the domestic economy.
Euroland advance PMIs showed a
further improvement in May,
still consistent with declining economic activity in the second quarter, but
not as drastically weak as Q1's 2.5% GDP contraction.
UK business investment fell 5.5% in
Q1, limiting the scope for an
upward revision to Q1 GDP growth. Also UK retail sales volumes posted back to back rises
in March and April in the newly revamped retail sales series. The April gain of
0.9% was close to our 0.8% forecast and reflected temporary factors such as the
timing of Easter and the relatively hot weather last month
Standard & Poor's revised its
outlook on the UK's AAA credit rating from stable to negative, coinciding with the publication of April public
borrowing data which revealed further deterioration in the UK's public finances.
Recall that earlier this year, Spain and then Ireland lost their AAA S&P ratings.
Monday is a London and NY market holiday, so we expect volatility
tonight from heightened position squaring. Given positions are likely long risk
currencies, any squaring should produce a selloff in NZD during the next 24
hours. Adding to the negativity, extrapolations of the UK's rating onto NZ, given the budget next
Thursday, are possible. The 0.6130 level is still important resistance, though,
and should that be exceeded for whatever reason, NZD would go much higher.
Country Release Last Forecast
22 May US
Jpn Bank of Japan Meeting
UK Q1 GDP
Revision â€“1.9% â€“1.8%
Retail Sales 0.2% 0.5%
25 May US
Jpn BoJ Monthly
Industry Activity Index â€“2.0% â€“
Ger May Ifo
Business Climate 83.7 84.9
UK Late May
26 May NZ
Apr Merchandise Trade NZDm 324 450
Inflation Expectations 2.3% 2.1%
â€¢ NZ Budget
2009 Preview (21 May)
â€¢ NZ Weekly
Forex Outlook (18 May)
â€¢ NZ Q1
Retail Sales Review (15 May)
â€¢ NZ Weekly
Forex Outlook (11 May)
â€¢ NZ Q1 HLFS
Review (7 May)
â€¢ NZ Weekly
Forex Outlook (4 May)
papers/publications are available on Online Research on Westpac
Daily Forex Market News Forex news reports can be found on the forex research
headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports
provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex
market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found
Forex News Real-time forex market news reports and features providing
other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the
headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest
forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less
recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines
and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports
from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."
Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.
Mon 23 July 2018 A 14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales Tue 24 July 2018 AFlash PMIs Wed 25 July 2018 A 08:00 DE- IFO Survey A 14:00 US- New Homes Sales A 14:30 US- EIA Crude Thu 26 July 2018 AA 11:45 EZ- European Central Bank Decision A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless A 12:30 US- Durable Goods Fri 27 July 2018 AA 12:30 US- GDP A 14:00 US- Final University of Michigan
John M. Bland, MBA co-founding Partner, Global-View.com
Global-View Affiliate Program
We are starting an affiliate program to market some of our products.
Send me an email if you would be interested or if you know someone who would like to be an affiliate. Generous commissions payout for those accepted.
Put the word "affiliate" in the email subject line.
Veteran FX Trader, Max McKegg, forecasts all the Major currencies and the Australasians; providing Daily and Medium Term Trading forecasts to subscribers, who include large Banks the world over, as well as individual traders in more than 30 different countries.
looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are
more critical things to consider than you might have thought.
We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View
has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've
seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.
The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.
The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.
Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by Global-View.com.
The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.
Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.
Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.
Global-View.com also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at Global-View.com. This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.
WARNING: FOREIGN EXCHANGE TRADING AND INVESTMENT IN DERIVATIVES
CAN BE VERY SPECULATIVE AND MAY RESULT IN LOSSES AS WELL AS PROFITS. FOREIGN
EXCHANGE AND DERIVATIVES TRADING IS NOT SUITABLE FOR MANY MEMBERS OF THE
PUBLIC AND ONLY RISK CAPITAL SHOULD BE APPLIED. THE WEBSITE DOES NOT TAKE
INTO ACCOUNT SPECIAL INVESTMENT GOALS, THE FINANCIAL SITUATION OR SPECIFIC
REQUIREMENTS OF INDIVIDUAL USERS. YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER YOUR FINANCIAL
SITUATION AND CONSULT YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISORS AS TO THE SUITABILITY TO YOUR
SITUATION PRIOR TO MAKING ANY INVESTMENT OR ENTERING INTO ANY TRANSACTIONS.