Friday May 22, 2009 - 13:26:25 GMT
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Black Swan Capital - www.blackswantrading.com
Dollar Shrug! No surprise.
â€śIf you do not change direction, you may end up where you are heading.â€ť
FX Trading â€“ Dollar Shrug! No surprise.
Is Mr. Geithner speaking today? He is becoming such a joy for dollar bears, as John Ross mentioned in his closing to CC yesterday. And the dollar doom and gloom crowd is smelling blood in the water; rightly so!
There are a lot of short dollar trades on it seems. We surmise Pimco has a big dollar short position given Bond King Bill Grossâ€™s recent public musing about the US may lose its AAA rating. Comments like that shouldnâ€™t be a surprise to anyone given the US governmentâ€™s desire to take on the role of global stimulus King instead of just worrying about getting its own house in orderâ€”pathetic!
Mr. Geithner says the US depends on other countries to grow and chastises them for not throwing enough of their taxpayersâ€™ money into the â€śstimulusâ€ť program. Maybe he should take a look at that before he speaksâ€¦Of course the crony insiders tell us how â€śsmartâ€ť Mr. Geithner is, and we donâ€™t doubt his intelligence. Anyone that can avoid paying personal income taxes and still pull-off an appointment to Treasury Secretary (and run the IRS) is pretty smart. But our gripe is the fact that the guy instills negative confidence in the market place not because he lacks â€śleadership qualities,â€ť as some have suggested, but because his economics seems all screwed up in my most humble opinion.
We are in a gut wrenching transition in the global economy because the wildest orgy of debt the world has ever seen is over. Thus, excesses across all sectors, especially financial, must be removed from the marketplace in order for real quality long-term globally balanced growth to take hold. Instead, day after day we witness dinosaur saving from Geithner and friends, while stunningly they tell us this with a straight face (as straight as any government official possibly can) that we need to put more debt into the market in order to solve the problem of too much debt being in the market. Mr. Orwell call your office!
Now granted, few of us have toiled away at the top economic Ivy League institutions and rubbed elbows and other things against the top seers. Granted, we donâ€™t have the luxury of feeding our ideas and inputs into the most sophisticated econometrics models imaginable built of course by the â€śbest and brightest.â€ť But it seems our angst grows from something the power elites donâ€™t haveâ€”common sense.
Putting more debt into a system desperately working to alleviate debt is just plain stupid no matter how the Neo-Keynesians slice or dice it. Is it any wonder why the globe is losing confidence in the dollar?
It seems the guys that are supposed to be on our side consistently cow-tow to the other side. And of course, you know where Iâ€™m going hereâ€”China.
It is farcical when China criticizes the US for overconsumption and not saving enough. They were enriched precisely because of the overconsumption, besides playing our multi-national â€śleadersâ€ť like a violin by offering cheap labor and short-term riches in turn for giving them technology which sooner or later will lead to the wiping out western business and sunk shareholder value as we know it. But that is another story for another day.
The symbiotic game of China shipping containers full of stuff to the US for Federal Reserve Notes dwindling in value ended with the credit crunch. And guess which of the two formerly symbiotic players is getting crunched harderâ€”if you said China you would have been right.
But, in their Orwellian world of global chess, the Chinese pretend they are outperforming anything that moves. And their noises and lies and bluffs and fake economic numbers cannot deny the fact that if Mr. US Consumer does not get this symbiotic game of dollars for stuff going again, the Politburo may be out of a jobâ€”literally thrown out of a job, if you know what I mean.
So, instead of realizing this upper hand of consumer demand the US possesses, the US government economic â€śleadersâ€ť agree with China that yesâ€”it is highly important to stimulate the globe, we want 2001 again. If successful it would mean China continues to add global market share to their manufacturing behemoth and can avoid the dirty hard job of developing a domestic marketâ€¦a few slides below from a presentation I gave about the Chinese US trade relationship a year ago. The key slides are the symbiotic relationship slides number 3 & 4 below. The core of this game begins with credit expansion and US consumer demand.
(Charts unavailable in text format.)
I provide these to show one thing---that all of this stuff we talk about revolves around Mr. US Consumer and credit. Granted, if you are happy with Chinaâ€™s role in the world, and the riches you enjoy flowing from that, you want this game to work. I find the idea of China hegemony very scaryâ€”a cold mean dark world will follow for those not politically connected would ensue. I am talking about those who donâ€™t buy into the propaganda and silly mantra of what the west does with China has anything to do with free trade.
The US government seems to think the worst that can happen in the world is for the US consumer to save more. It goes to show how messed up their economic thinking is and goes to show how political their thinking is. Sadly, party doesnâ€™t seem to matter in this game. Both Twiddle-dee and twiddle-dumb like to play. Consumer spending is at the core. But there is one true source of from which all wealthy eventually growsâ€”savings.
â€śNot only that: for [Ludwig von] Mises the worst form of intervention would be to prop up prices or wage rates, causing unemployment, to increase the money supply, or to boost government spending in order to stimulate consumption. For Mises, the recession was a problem of under-saving, and over-consumption, and it was therefore important to encourage savings and thrift rather than the opposite, to cut government spending rather than increase it. It is clear that, from 1936 on Mises was totally in opposition to the worldwide fashion in macroeconomic policy,â€ť writes Murray Rothbard.
And so it goesâ€¦
(Chart unavailable in text format.)
Have a great weekend!
Jack Crooks, Black Swan Capital LLC
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