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FX Blog- GVI Forex Month Ahead Interest Rate Outlook for May 22, 2009

Central Bank Policy Outlook -- Key Interest Rates


Global Interest Rates


The Global-View.com Monetary Policy Outlook is prepared weekly by the trading professionals at GVI Forex. For information on the GVI Forex Service Click Here

24 May 2009

Upcoming Central Bank Meetings -- Monetary Profiles

Reserve Bank of Australia- Tuesday June 2, 2009

  • Market expects a -25bp cut in the 3.00% Cash rate target.
  • Australia unlikely to eventually move to an effective zero interest rate policy (ZIRP).
  • RBA has been very aggressive recently on interest rate cuts.
  • Economy hit by slowing global demand.
  • Inflation not an issue.

    European Central Bank- Thursday June 4, 2009

  • Market expects a -25bps cut in the 1.00% refi rate.
  • ECB has renamed QE as �unconventional measures�.

    Bank of England- Thursday June 4, 2009

  • Cut of 25bps seen in the 0.50% repo rate.
  • The Bank of England could eventually move to an effective zero interest rate policy (ZIRP). QE is now in place.
  • Keep an eye on the BOE vs. ECB rate spread. The GBP is more comfortable with a positive spread vs. the EUR.
  • Inflation not issue; economy very slow.

    Bank of Canada- Thursday June 4, 2009

  • With the overnight target rate at 0.25%, no room left for easing.
  • Energy economy hit hard by slowing U.S. economy.
  • BOC being pushed into a Quantitative Easing posture.
  • Inflation no issue.




    AUSTRALIA

    GVI Reserve Bank of Australia Policy Meeting Preview

    • Decision Anouncement: June 4, 2009 at 03:30 GMT.
    • RBA Cash Rate Target: 3.00%
    • Expected Decision: -25bp rate cut
    • The pace of Reserve Bank ease has been slowing, but the economy remains vulnerable.

    RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA Policy Objective: The policy objective is a target for consumer price inflation, of 2-3 per cent per annum. Monetary policy aims to achieve this over the medium term and, subject to that, to encourage the strong and sustainable growth in the economy. Controlling inflation preserves the value of money. In the long run, this is the principal way in which monetary policy can help to form a sound basis for long-term growth in the economy.

    aucpi

    The chart above shows year/year and the CPI target of 2% to 3% for this price index. 

    aupmi



    jobs


    s-t rates

    The chart above shows the current three month bank bill rate, the current Cash Rate target  and where the futures markets are currently trading three month rates for the specified periods in the future. The chart also includes comparisons of where these futures rates were trading most recently, a week ago and four weeks ago.  The chart provides a view on where the markets feel Australian interest rates are headed.


    interest rates

    The chart above shows the Australian overnight rate target, three month bank bills, and two- and ten-year bond yields over the past twelve months.




    UNITED KINGDOM

    GVI Bank of England Policy Meeting Preview

    • Decision: June 4, 2009 at 11:00 GMT.
    • BOE Repo Rate: 0.50%
    • Expected Decision: -25bp rate cut.
    • Risks that the economy has been falling off a cliff has underscored the need for aggressive easing actions.Quantitative ease is now underway.
    • Quantitative Eaing (QE) at hand.

      BANK OF ENGLAND Policy Objective: The Bank's monetary policy objective is to deliver price stability, low inflation, and, subject to that, to support the Government's economic objectives including those for growth and employment. Price stability is defined by the Government's inflation target of 2%.

      ezcpi

      The chart above shows year/year CPI for the U.K. relative to its 2% target for this key price index. 


      ezcpi




    s-t rates

    The chart above shows the current three month libor rate, the current Repo Rate  and where the futures markets are currently trading three month rates for the specified periods in the future. The chart also includes comparisons of where these futures rates were trading most recently, a week ago and four weeks ago.  The chart provides a view on where the markets feel U.K. interest rates are headed.


    interest rates

    The chart above shows the U.K. repo rate target, three month libor, and two- and ten-year bond yields over the past twelve months.




    EUROZONE

    GVI European Central Bank Policy Meeting Preview

    • Decision: June 4, 2009 at 11:45 GMT.
    • ECB Refi rate: 1.00%
    • Expected Decision: -25bps
    • Belatedly policy has finally started to focus on economic growth and financial stability. Its past obsession with inflation is broadly being seen as having been in error.

      ECB Policy Objective: The primary objective of the ECB's monetary policy is to maintain price stability. The ECB aims at inflation rates of below, but close to, 2% over the medium term.

      ezcpi

      The chart above shows year/year HICP (Harmonized CPI) for the Eurozone relatrive to its "below 2%" target level.

      ezcpi

      ezcpi




    s-t rates

    The chart above shows the current three month libor rate, the current ECB  "refi" rate target  and where the futures markets are currently trading three month rates for the specified periods in the future. The chart also includes comparisons of where these futures rates were trading most recently, a week ago and four weeks ago.  The chart provides a view on where the markets feel Eurozone interest rates are headed.


    interest rates

    The chart above shows the ECB refi rate target, three month libor, and two- and ten-year bond yields over the past twelve months.




    CANADA

    GVI Bank of Canada Policy Meeting Preview

    • Decision: June 4, 2009 at 13:00 GMT.
    • BOC Overnight Target Rate: 0.25%
    • Expected Decision: unchanged.
    • The Bank of Canada quantitative ease is in place.

      BANK OF CANADA Policy Objective: The Bank of Canada aims to keep inflation at the 2 per cent target, the midpoint of the 1 to 3 per cent inflation-control target range. This target is expressed in terms of total CPI inflation, but the Bank uses a measure of core inflation as an operational guide. Core inflation provides a better measure of the underlying trend of inflation and tends to be a better predictor of future changes in the total CPI.

      cacpi

      The chart above shows year/year CPI-X (core CPI) and the target of 2% for this price index. 

      PMI



      jobs


    s-t rates

    The chart above shows the current three month Banker Acceptance rate, the current BOC overnight rate target  and where the futures markets are currently trading three month rates for the specified periods in the future. The chart also includes comparisons of where these futures rates were trading most recently, a week ago and four weeks ago.  The chart provides a view on where the markets feel Canadian interest rates are headed.


    interest rates

    The chart above shows the Canadian overnight rate target, three month Bankers Acceptance, and two- and ten-year bond yields over the past twelve months.





    John M. Bland is an author and co-founder and partner of Global-View.com. Prior to Global-View.com, he was a Vice-President and senior dealer in a forex inter-bank and futures trading arm of a subsidiary (ContiCurrency) of the Continental Grain Company in NYC. Previous to that, he was one of the early members of the Chemical Bank corporate advisory service in NYC, and also worked in international liability management for that bank. John holds an MBA from the Hass School at the University of California at Berkeley and a bachelors degree in International Economics from Berkeley.

  •  

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    Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

    Mon 16 Oct
    01:30 CN- CPI
    21:45 NZ- CPI
    Tue 17 Oct
    08:30 GB- CPI
    09:00 DE- ZEW Survey
    09:00 EZ- Final HICP
    Wed 18 Oct
    12:30 US- Housing Starts & Permits
    14:30 US- EIA Crude
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    08:30 GB- Retail Sales
    12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
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    12:30 CA- Retail Sales & CPI
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    • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue-- 08:30 GMT GB- CPI top tier confirmation of Inflation.

    • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT DE- ZEW Survey second most important German monthly Survey.

    • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT EZ- final HICP revision to flash report. Revisions are usually minor.

    • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 13:15 GMT US- Industrial Production. Top output indicator.



    • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 12:30 GMT US- Housing Starts and Permits revision to flash report. Useful housing leading indicator.

    • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 14:30 GMT US- EIA Crude. Top WTI inventory measure.



    John M. Bland, MBA
    co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

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