US Q1 GDP second
estimate and German IFO survey feature
We are expecting a small
upward revision to US Q1 GDP in the second
estimate based on a slightly more positive contribution from net exports.
However, the depth of GDP contraction will have remained historically steep,
see chart 1. Also this week, we are looking for a second consecutive monthly
rise in the key German IFO business survey. This mirrors other European surveys
that show the regionâ€™s recession is easing, but output still contracting, see
chart 2. In addition, a plethora of speeches by ECB President Trichet and
members including Weber, will be interpreted for comments on incoming data and
clues about the likely impact of economic developments on economic policy. In
addition, the US Treasury has a heavy auction
schedule of $101bn of notes, while the outcome of the UK DMOs Â£1.25bn sale of
1.25% gilts due 2032 will be closely monitored following financial market
concern over S&Pâ€™s medium-term debt downgrade. UK and US markets are
closed on Monday.
ô€‚„ UK data will continue to be
perused for signs of the economy stabilising - house prices and the CBI distributive
trades & GfK consumer confidence surveys are all due. The market consensus
forecast is for the Nationwide house price index to have fallen close to 1% on
a monthly basis in May, compared with a decline of 0.4% in April. Whereas this
is an improvement compared with the 12-month average trend of -1.4% and may
well provide limited evidence that house price falls may be steadying, annual
prices are still dropping at a hefty pace of -13.7%. While last weekâ€™s stronger
than expected official retail sales data prepares the way for a less
pessimistic CBI distributive trades survey outcome - we expect an index level
of -12 in May, significantly better than the 12-month average of -31, the
figure is likely to be worse than +3 in April. Finally, the GfK consumer
confidence index may have worsened to -30 in May from -27 in April, indicating
that household spending may fall for the third consecutive quarter in Q2, after
1% quarterly contractions in both Q1 and in Q4 2008.
ô€‚„ Q1 annualised GDP second estimate is the key US economic data release
of the week - it may show a contraction of -5.5% compared with -6.1% in the
preliminary release, due to an upward revision in the contribution of net external
trade. Durable goods orders, excluding transport, due Thursday, are notorious
for backward revisions and any changes in the monthly series will impact on the
Q1 GDP second release outcome. Other data may enhance the view that there are
small economic improvements underway in the last few months â€“ consumer confidence,
existing & new home sales and the Chicago PMI manufacturing survey may have
strengthened. Also important, the weekly US initial jobs claim figure may be
lower again this week, but with the jobless rate still rising, continuing claims,
the total number of people filing for unemployment benefit, could break the
ô€‚„ We expect German Q1 GDP (final) to confirm a massive contraction
of 3.8% in the quarter and 6.9% on an annual basis, as investment plummeted and
exports dropped due to contracting markets and the strong euro. However, more
recent data has improved and the key IFO index of business confidence index may
rise for a second consecutive month in May, after increasing off a 26-year low
last month as significant monetary and fiscal stimulus may have started to ease
the recession. This is in line with other eurozone business surveys, such as
the PMIs, that portray a similar story. Also important, EU-16 industrial orders
which have been contracting at a massive annual rate of almost 34.5% may rise
on a monthly basis in March due to stronger German data. Despite some early
signs of the recession easing, the EU-16 unemployment rate may have risen to 9%
in April from 8.9% a month earlier and is likely to be very close to 10% by end
Any documentation, reports, correspondence or other
material or information in whatever form be it electronic, textual or
otherwise is based on sources believed to be reliable, however neither the Bank
nor its directors, officers or employees warrant accuracy, completeness or
otherwise, or accept responsibility for any error, omission or other
inaccuracy, or for any consequences arising from any reliance upon such information.
The facts and data contained are not, and should under no circumstances be
treated as an offer or solicitation to offer, to buy or sell any product, nor
are they intended to be a substitute for commercial judgement or professional
or legal advice, and you should not act in reliance upon any of the facts and
data contained, without first obtaining professional advice relevant to your
circumstances. Expressions of opinion may be subject to change without notice.
Although warrants and/or derivative instruments can be utilised for the
management of investment risk, some of these products are unsuitable for many
investors. The facts and data contained are therefore not intended for the use
of private customers (as defined by the FSA Handbook) of Lloyds TSB Bank plc.
Lloyds TSB Bank plc is authorised and regulated by the Financial Services
Authority and is a signatory to the Banking Codes, and represents only the
Scottish Widows and Lloyds TSB Marketing Group for life assurance, pension and
Forex Trading News
Daily Forex Market News Forex news reports can be found on the forex research
headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports
provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex
market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found
Forex News Real-time forex market news reports and features providing
other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the
headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest
forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less
recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines
and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports
from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."
Elevate Your Trading With The Amazing Trader!
The Amazing Trader includes:
Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.
looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are
more critical things to consider than you might have thought.
We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View
has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've
seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.
The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.
The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.
Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by Global-View.com.
The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.
Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.
Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.
Global-View.com also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at Global-View.com. This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.
WARNING: FOREIGN EXCHANGE TRADING AND INVESTMENT IN DERIVATIVES
CAN BE VERY SPECULATIVE AND MAY RESULT IN LOSSES AS WELL AS PROFITS. FOREIGN
EXCHANGE AND DERIVATIVES TRADING IS NOT SUITABLE FOR MANY MEMBERS OF THE
PUBLIC AND ONLY RISK CAPITAL SHOULD BE APPLIED. THE WEBSITE DOES NOT TAKE
INTO ACCOUNT SPECIAL INVESTMENT GOALS, THE FINANCIAL SITUATION OR SPECIFIC
REQUIREMENTS OF INDIVIDUAL USERS. YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER YOUR FINANCIAL
SITUATION AND CONSULT YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISORS AS TO THE SUITABILITY TO YOUR
SITUATION PRIOR TO MAKING ANY INVESTMENT OR ENTERING INTO ANY TRANSACTIONS.