Wednesday January 19, 2005 - 01:27:10 GMT
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Forex: Daily Forecast for the U.S. Dollar vs Japanese Yen 19th January 2005 Price:
Resistance: 102.35 ... 102.55 ... 102.78 ... 102.98
Support....: 101.90 ... 101.67 ... 101.46 ... 101.20
We expect a 101.90 - 102.78 range today
A good rally seen from our support area to just below the 103.19 resistance. We are expecting to see some range trading today with 101.85-95 supplying the base and 102.78 the ceiling for trading. Thus buy the current dip but take profit early. A stronger bullish stance is only implied on a break above 102.78-00 and if seen would provoke further gains to 103.39. Further resistance is found at 103.86-96.
Support seen between 101.59-70 and this area needs to break to see losses extend lower. More likely we expect a range between 101.90-102.78 and thus the higher area provides a selling opportunity with stops placed above 103.00. However, any dip from 102.78 would not be expected to reach 102.00 on the first attempt. Thus a stronger bearish stance requires a break below 101.67-85 which would imply losses down to 101.20. Further support is found at 100.81 and 100.30.
Elliott Wave Comments:
17th January 2005
With the drop from 1.8936 to below 1.8644 we are considering a more bearish structure now. This will mean that 1.9548 will have completed the move higher and as such we are in a bearish decline. The initial drop to 1.8644 may well have completed Wave (iii) though we feel that this is more likely to represent Wave (a) of Wave (iii). We consider the correction to 1.8936 could well have completed Wave (iv) but with daily cycles finding a low around now we that it may have been Wave a of Wave (iv) which is occuring within a complex correction. This implies a flat, expanded flat or triangle and we need to proceed with caution until the pattern is more strongly developed.
19th January 2005
The low at 101.67 yesterday appears to favor a short Wave -c- to complete Wave (iii) and while normally we would expect a 50% pullback of Wave (iii) we note that yesterday's retracement ended at 102.98 which marked a 38.2% retracement. This could have completed Wave (iv) but we feel that there is more chance of seeing a sideways consolidation for a day or two in the form of a triangle to end around 102.50 which would then imply a Wave (v) target around the 99.75 area - which is where the weekly and daily targets lie. However, given that this low is expected to be the major low for the year any drop below 101.20 would be sufficient to complete the basic pattern lower. Thus care should be taken once below 101.20.
(c) FX-Strategy Inc 2005
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