Bounce on data. Investors returned from their long weekend in
an optimistic mood, sending the S&P500 2.6% higher. Most of the gains
occurred in the first hour of the session, after consumer confidence showed the
biggest monthly jump in 6 years, and the Richmond Fed manufacturing report beat
expectations. The Nasdaq's 3.6% gain was boosted by a broker upgrade for Apple.
Risk aversion barometer VIX slipped to the pivotal 30 level. US treasuries
suffered, the 10yr up 9bp in yield, despite good interest in the 2yr auction
(where 54% of bids were indirect - a proxy for foreign buyers). Commodities oil
(+1.1%) and copper (+1.9%) followed the positive tone.
EUR was sold until London on weak current account and industrial orders
data, falling from 1.4000 to 1.3860, but rebounded completely after US equities
opened strongly. GBP fell to 1.5780, but then made a new 2009 high at
1.5970.USD/JPY drifted sideways in 94.50 to 95.15 range.
AUD followed EUR down to 0.7705, and back up to
0.7865, equalling Friday night's high.
After a dip to 0.6090, NZD
shrugged off any budget concerns to reach 0.6255 early this morning, a level
last seen in October 2008. AUD/NZD continued the recent downward trend, finding
support at 1.2560 for now.
The Richmond Fed factory index stands out in May as being the first of the many regional
manufacturing surveys to rise back into positive territory (4 from -9). Its
strongest reading since March last year reflected rising orders and shipments,
although not jobs (though they are falling at a slower pace). The Dallas Fed
index headline more closely mirrored the "slower pace of contraction"
story of the other regional Fed surveys for New York and Philadelphia. The Richmond survey also includes services (unchanged at
-29) and retail (weaker at -13 from -11) components so the apparent factory
upswing does not seem to have spread to optimism in other sectors this month.
The Conference Board's consumer
confidence index jumped by a steep 14 pts for the second month running, but once again it was the
expectations index doing most of the work: it rose by about 20 pts in each of
April and May, whereas the present situation index averaged gains of just 3.5%
in the two months. The CB index's two month gain of 28 pts is the steepest
since at least the 1970s. It seems that hopes about the eventual turnaround in
the economy are being boosted by the stock-market rally and some
over-enthusiastic media reporting of the so-called "green shoots" of
recovery, whereas the way respondents currently feel is little improved. That
said, there was a further modest improvement in the assessment of the job
market, though the -39 reading is still seriously weak.
The S&P Case Shiller House Price
index fell a further 2.2% in March.
Sales were boosted by cheap foreclosed properties which weighed heavily on
prices. Nationally, prices are now down 32.2% from their July 2006 peak, and
seem to have some ways further to go, although the pace of monthly decline has
slowed somewhat from January's -2.8%.
Japan's April corporate services price index fell
2.4% in March. The embattled
corporate sector, squeezed between declining sales and an uncompetitive yen,
are in cost cutting mode. Pricing power in the provision of services to
corporates would seem to be nil.
German GDP growth was unrevised a
-3.8% in Q1, for an unrevised
-6.9% yr annual decline. The detail showed a 7.9% plunge in capital investment,
a 2.6% fall in construction, but a 0.5% rise in private consumption. Exports
fell at nearly double the pace of imports (-10% vs -5%).
Other Euroland data included a 0.8%
fall in industrial orders in March;
also there was a 0.8% fall in May import prices in Germany.
NZD upward momentum
continues, and any pullbacks should be limited to around 0.6200 today. Event
risk to that view includes today's Fonterra 2010 payout forecast, as well as
this afternoon's business confidence survey.
Country Release Last Forecast
27 May NZ
May NBNZ Business Confidence â€“14.5% â€“
Westpac-MI Leading Index â€“5.1% â€“
US Mar House
Prices 0.7% 0.2%
Home Sales â€“3.0% 2.0%
Shokoâ€“Chukin Small Bus Index 30.8 â€“
Balance s/adj Â¥bn â€“97.1 â€“17.5
Ger May CPI
Prelim %yr 0.7% 0.1%
UK May Bank
Mortgage Lending Â£bn 26 28
28 May NZ
Budget 2009 NZDbn 5.64 â€“1.50
Deputy Governor Battellino Speaking
CAPEX Intentions, AUDbn 79.9 â€“
â€¢ NZ Weekly
Forex Outlook (25 May)
â€¢ NZ Budget
2009 Preview (21 May)
â€¢ NZ Weekly
Forex Outlook (18 May)
â€¢ NZ Q1
Retail Sales Review (15 May)
â€¢ NZ Weekly
Forex Outlook (11 May)
papers/publications are available on Online Research on Westpac
Daily Forex Market News Forex news reports can be found on the forex research
headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports
provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex
market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found
Forex News Real-time forex market news reports and features providing
other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the
headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest
forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less
recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines
and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports
from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."
Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.
Tue 19 June 2018 A 12:30 US- House Permits/Starts Wed 20 June 2018 A 14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales A 14:30 US- EIA Crude Thu 21 June 2018 AA 11:00 GB- Bank of England Decision A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless Fri 22 June 2018 AFlash PMIs
John M. Bland, MBA co-founding Partner, Global-View.com
Global-View Affiliate Program
We are starting an affiliate program to market some of our products.
Send me an email if you would be interested or if you know someone who would like to be an affiliate. Generous commissions payout for those accepted.
Put the word "affiliate" in the email subject line.
Veteran FX Trader, Max McKegg, forecasts all the Major currencies and the Australasians; providing Daily and Medium Term Trading forecasts to subscribers, who include large Banks the world over, as well as individual traders in more than 30 different countries.
looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are
more critical things to consider than you might have thought.
We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View
has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've
seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.
The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.
The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.
Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by Global-View.com.
The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.
Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.
Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.
Global-View.com also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at Global-View.com. This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.
WARNING: FOREIGN EXCHANGE TRADING AND INVESTMENT IN DERIVATIVES
CAN BE VERY SPECULATIVE AND MAY RESULT IN LOSSES AS WELL AS PROFITS. FOREIGN
EXCHANGE AND DERIVATIVES TRADING IS NOT SUITABLE FOR MANY MEMBERS OF THE
PUBLIC AND ONLY RISK CAPITAL SHOULD BE APPLIED. THE WEBSITE DOES NOT TAKE
INTO ACCOUNT SPECIAL INVESTMENT GOALS, THE FINANCIAL SITUATION OR SPECIFIC
REQUIREMENTS OF INDIVIDUAL USERS. YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER YOUR FINANCIAL
SITUATION AND CONSULT YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISORS AS TO THE SUITABILITY TO YOUR
SITUATION PRIOR TO MAKING ANY INVESTMENT OR ENTERING INTO ANY TRANSACTIONS.