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Forex Blog - European Marlet Update: China says global economy might not have bottomed out yet; German State inflation lower across the board

Today 06:00am EST/10:00am GMT
European Marlet Update: China says global economy might not have bottomed out yet; German State inflation lower across the board

*** ECONOMIC DATA ***

- (FR) French May Consumer Confidence Indicator: -40 v -40e

- (FR) French May Business Confidence Indicator: 72 v 73e, Production Outlook Indicator: -50 v -16e; Own Company Production Outlook: -29 v -32e

- (GE) German May CPI - Saxony M/M: 0.1% v 0.1% prior, Y/Y: 0.2% v 0.7% prior

- (SP) Spain Apr Retail Sales Y/Y: -8.4% v -7.6% prior, Adjusted Retail Sales Y/Y: -7.5% v -8.0%e

- (SW) Swedish May Economic Tendency Survey: 77.0 v 72.0e

- (SW) Swedish May Consumer Confidence: -11.0 v -18.0e

- (SW) Swedish Apr Trade Balance: SEK8.4B v SEK8.1Be

- (IT) Italian May Consumer Confidence Indicator: 104.9 v 105.1e

- (TT) Taiwan Apr Leading Indicators M/M: 2.6% v 1.5% prior

- (GE) German May CPI - Hesse M/M: 0.0% v -0.1% prior, Y/Y: -0.4% v 0.3% prior

- (GE) German May CPI - Brandenburg M/M: -0.1% v 0.1% prior, Y/Y: -0.1% v 0.5% prior

- (IT) Italian Hourly Wages M/M: 0.1% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: 3.5% v 3.6%e

- (UK) Apr BBA Loans for House Purchase: 27.7K v 28.0Ke

- (IT) Italian Large Company Employment NSA Y/Y: -1.2% v -1.0% prior

- (GE) German May CPI - Baden Wuerttemburg M/M: -0.1% v 0.0% prior, Y/Y: 0.0% v 0.7% prior

- (SA) South Africa Apr CPI M/M: 0.5% v 0.4%e, Y/Y: 8.4% v 8.3%e

- (GE) German May CPI - North Rhine Westphalia M/M: -0.1% v 0.2% prior, Y/Y:0.1% v 0.8% prior

- (GE) German May CPI Bavaria M/M: -0.1% v 0.1% prior, Y/Y: 0.3% v 1.0% prior


*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***

- In equities: -In equities: Equity markets in Europe continued the rally from yesterday's session that started following better than expected US consumer confidence numbers. In light pre-market news, European futures traded higher in line with a strong Asian equity session (Hang Seng +4.87%). Further comments regarding Rio Tinto [RIO.UK] out of the Chinese media speculated again that Chinalco was reviewing its proposed deal for an 18% stake and that Posco would not be willing to accept a Nippon Steel style 33% reduction in ore prices. Rather, Posco would seek a cut of 40%, according to Chinese sources. Reported success of ANZ Bank's (ANZ.AU) capital raise, in part to pay for RBS [RBS.UK] acquired ABN-AMRO units sent RBS shares higher in early trades. Retail names traded broadly lower as markets expect April retail sales figures out of Spain and Italian consumer confidence. Another sector underperforming is European auto names, with Fiat [F.IT] trading lower. Today (Wed, 27) had been mentioned by German sources as the day Germany would select its candidate for an OPEL bidder, but those expectations seem to have been delayed by Econ Min Guttenberg's statements yesterday that any potential decision would most likely be put back. Markets broadly held their opening gains and by 3:30EST traded in a +0.04% to +0.70% range. In choppy trading markets trended lower through the European morning. Leading up to German supply at 5:00EST, the FTSE and DAX moved through the unchanged mark and traded in negative territory. This speculative move was surrendered after the German auction results with a bid to cover at 1.9x, higher than the previous 1.5x. Following the German results, the DAX followed by the FTSE recovered and returned to their previous trading ranges. By 5:30EST, markets maintained their positive trend, trading on in-line volumes, in a range between +0.17% to +0.50%.

-In individual equities: Northern Foods [NFDS.UK] Reports FY09 Net £2.5M v £8.1Me, Pretax £48M v £43.7Me, Rev £975M v £978Me; Proposes dividend of 4.5p. Net debts at £206.7M v £200.2M y/y. Revolving Credit Facility (RCF) in place through to 2012. CEO: "We anticipate that next year will be equally challenging, with the continuation of food inflation and competitive pressures. Our operational and financial strengths position us well to benefit when markets recover." || Rio Tinto [RIO.UK] Chinalco mulls revisions to transaction with the company - Caijing. Chinalco's President Weiping does not disclose what changes might be pursued, but denies that his company will cut its stake in Rio Tinto to 15% from 18%. || Air Berlin [AB1.GE] Reports Q1 Net loss €88.4M v loss €90Me; Rev €661Mm v €643Me. Exec: Fare yields in Q1 were +15.4% y/y. Increased price sensitivity within business class travelers has raised demand within airline. Reaffirms expectations for positive EBIT in 2009 y/y. 2009 fuel hedging levels at 77.8% at end of Aprl 2009. || Arcandor [ARO.GE] German Fin Min Steinbrueck: Cannot rule out aid for Arcandor. || Sea Drill [SDRL.NO] Reports Q1 Net $243M v $154Me, Rev $697M v $719Me. - Reported EPS $0.55, continues to expect increased cash generation over the next several quarters. || Edison SpA [EDN.IT] Receives €600M 3-yr credit facility. ||

- Speakers: ECB's Bini Smaghi wrote in an Italian editorial that emerging economies might slow G7 growth potential. He noted that Chinese FX rate should reflect competitiveness; and that G7 countries have put pressure on China over Yuan and currency reserves since 2003. he noted that the decline in USD increases the problems of exchange rates with China. Since July 2008 the desirable Yuan appreciation has stopped and Chinese FX reserve accumulation has continued

||ECB's Noyer commented that French banks have made necessary capital level provisions . he stated that perhaps the largest of French banking write downs might already been made. Global crisis underlines the need for medium term monetary policy and central banks should not follow pro- cyclicality of markets. Central banks should focus more on markets to foresee imbalances ||| ECB's Constancio stated that the Euro-zone economic growth to be very negative in 2009, but the pace of recession wass abating ||| ECB's Nowotny commented that there were signs of economic improvement but recovery might not be rapid. He did note that the money market mechanisms are working again and commented that Eastern Europe would recover quickly||| Treasury Sec Geithner will give China a "pass" on Yuan, trade issues; to reaffirm support for strong USD and to pledge to reduce deficit || China's PBoC commented that the global economy has yet to hit a bottom and the trend of any Chinese recovery has yet to be established . There was great uncertainty over global commodity prices but that the central bank will continue to ensure ample liquidity || Moody's Analysts note that Turkey can make due through the summer without IMF financing although it noted that the absence of IMF funding would constrain economic growth || Swedish Riksbank provided results from its spring survey. The central bank noted that risk propensity increased in market and that half the survey believed that economic/financial crisis has peaked || German Cabinet approved second supplementary budget with provisions for record borrowing of €47.6B

- In Currencies: The exhibited strength in the session. The GBP/USD pair tested above the 1.60 handle for the first time since Nov 6th. EUR/GBP cross revisited earlier monthly lows of 0.8720. Dealers did note of chatter circulating in Asia of a "large buying" in the EUR/GBP cross at the London fixing later today. The EUR/USD consolidated in the mid-1.39 area and dealers noted that the pair continued to lack the momentum to successfully overcome the 1.40 handle.

||The JPY was a touch weaker as dealer took notice of two large Toshin funds being launched today and rumored to total $2.7B.Traders were unsure whether the demand had been strong with one fund targeting financial sector equities and the other fund targeting high yield emerging market investments.||| The CAD remains strong and testing below its 200-week moving avg at 1.1147 as NYMEX crude tested above the $63 handle in the session.

-In Fixed Income: Germany sold €6.3B in a new Schatz with strong results. The auction was covered 1.9 times, above the average of 1.7 in the preceding three auctions. European government bonds are weaker this morning, but following selling in longer parts of the US yield curve late yesterday , the Bund is now trading less than 10bps cheap to the 10y Note, with the spread having halved from its widest levels of the month. The 10y Gilts is now just 16bps cheap to the 10y Note, having traded as wide as 49bps in early May |||S&P may make a decision on New Zealand's rating by as early as tomorrow night, after the country's budget statement . According to the report, 3 S&P executives are in New Zealand looking at whether to take its AA+ rating off negative watch to stable or to downgrade the rating. Fitch Analysts commented that a budget deficit of 5% of GDP would not in itself trigger a credit downgrade for the country ||

- I n Energy: Saudi Oil Min commented that rising oil price reflected optimism that the economy will improve in the future. He noted that the global economy could handle oil at $75/barrel and was hoping for better compliance on output targets among OPEC members || IEA's Didier commented that OPEC probably would not see need for any new output cuts at its May meeting this week. He noted that the US driving season, which began officially last weekend might be busier than that seen in 2008

- Credit Crisis: Former US Treasury undersecretary John Taylor wrote in the Financial Time on the US debt outlkook entitled "Exploding debt threatens America". He noted that Standard and Poor's decision to downgrade its outlook for British sovereign debt from "stable" to "negative" should be a wake-up call for the US Congress and administration. The article Under President Barack Obama's budget plan, the federal debt is exploding. To be precise, it is rising - and will continue to rise - much faster than gross domestic product, a measure of America's ability to service it. The federal debt was equivalent to 41% of GDP at the end of 2008; the Congressional Budget Office projects it will increase to 82% of GDP in 10 years. With no change in policy, it could hit 100% of GDP in just another five years. Taylor believe the risk posed by this debt is systemic and could do more damage to the economy than the recent financial crisis


*** NOTES ***

- Lots of ECB speak in the session; overall tone is cautious on the growth front but perhaps the worst of the global recession is behind . ECB's Liikanen reiterated the view that interest rates at 1.00% were appropriate at this time. ECB has not decided if they are at lowest possible levels.

- German States May inflation data was lower across the board…deflation or dis-inflation???

- BoJ minutes. Some members wanted to consider more steps if corporate finance worsened further

- China's PBoC: Global economy has yet to hit a bottom; trend of Chinese recovery yet to be established

- FT: Exploding debt threatens America.



- Looking Ahead: Second leg of US Treasury auctions;

- (GE) German May Preliminary CPI M/M: 0.1% expected v 0.0% prior, Y/Y: 0.2% expected v 0.7% prior

- (GE) German May Preliminary CPI- EU Harmonized M/M: 0.2% expected v 0.1% prior, Y/Y: 0.2% expected v 0.8% prior

- (PD) Polish Base Rate Announcement: No change expected, currently 3.75%

- 7:00 (US) MBA Mortgage Applications w/e: No expectations v 2.3% prior

- 10:00 (US) Mar House Price Index M/M: 0.2% expected v 0.7% prior

- 10:00 (US) Existing Home Sales: 4.66M expected v 4.57M prior; M/M: 2.0% expected v -3.0% prior

- 11:00 (US) Fed to repurchase Notes maturing between 05/31/2012 - 08/31/2013

- 12:00 (US0 Treasury's Geithner


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