In equities: -In equities: Equity markets in Europe continued the rally
from yesterday's session that started following better than expected US
consumer confidence numbers. In light pre-market news, European futures
traded higher in line with a strong Asian equity session (Hang Seng
+4.87%). Further comments regarding Rio Tinto [RIO.UK] out of the
Chinese media speculated again that Chinalco was reviewing its proposed
deal for an 18% stake and that Posco would not be willing to accept a
Nippon Steel style 33% reduction in ore prices. Rather, Posco would
seek a cut of 40%, according to Chinese sources. Reported success of
ANZ Bank's (ANZ.AU) capital raise, in part to pay for RBS [RBS.UK]
acquired ABN-AMRO units sent RBS shares higher in early trades. Retail
names traded broadly lower as markets expect April retail sales figures
out of Spain and Italian consumer confidence. Another sector
underperforming is European auto names, with Fiat [F.IT] trading lower.
Today (Wed, 27) had been mentioned by German sources as the day Germany
would select its candidate for an OPEL bidder, but those expectations
seem to have been delayed by Econ Min Guttenberg's statements yesterday
that any potential decision would most likely be put back. Markets
broadly held their opening gains and by 3:30EST traded in a +0.04% to
+0.70% range. In choppy trading markets trended lower through the
European morning. Leading up to German supply at 5:00EST, the FTSE and
DAX moved through the unchanged mark and traded in negative territory.
This speculative move was surrendered after the German auction results
with a bid to cover at 1.9x, higher than the previous 1.5x. Following
the German results, the DAX followed by the FTSE recovered and returned
to their previous trading ranges. By 5:30EST, markets maintained their
positive trend, trading on in-line volumes, in a range between +0.17%
-In individual equities: Northern Foods
[NFDS.UK] Reports FY09 Net Â£2.5M v Â£8.1Me, Pretax Â£48M v Â£43.7Me, Rev
Â£975M v Â£978Me; Proposes dividend of 4.5p. Net debts at Â£206.7M v
Â£200.2M y/y. Revolving Credit Facility (RCF) in place through to 2012.
CEO: "We anticipate that next year will be equally challenging, with
the continuation of food inflation and competitive pressures. Our
operational and financial strengths position us well to benefit when
markets recover." || Rio Tinto [RIO.UK] Chinalco mulls revisions to
transaction with the company - Caijing. Chinalco's President Weiping
does not disclose what changes might be pursued, but denies that his
company will cut its stake in Rio Tinto to 15% from 18%. || Air Berlin
[AB1.GE] Reports Q1 Net loss â‚¬88.4M v loss â‚¬90Me; Rev â‚¬661Mm v â‚¬643Me.
Exec: Fare yields in Q1 were +15.4% y/y. Increased price sensitivity
within business class travelers has raised demand within airline.
Reaffirms expectations for positive EBIT in 2009 y/y. 2009 fuel hedging
levels at 77.8% at end of Aprl 2009. || Arcandor [ARO.GE] German Fin
Min Steinbrueck: Cannot rule out aid for Arcandor. || Sea Drill
[SDRL.NO] Reports Q1 Net $243M v $154Me, Rev $697M v $719Me. - Reported
EPS $0.55, continues to expect increased cash generation over the next
several quarters. || Edison SpA [EDN.IT] Receives â‚¬600M 3-yr credit
- Speakers: ECB's Bini Smaghi wrote in
an Italian editorial that emerging economies might slow G7 growth
potential. He noted that Chinese FX rate should reflect
competitiveness; and that G7 countries have put pressure on China over
Yuan and currency reserves since 2003. he noted that the decline in USD
increases the problems of exchange rates with China. Since July 2008
the desirable Yuan appreciation has stopped and Chinese FX reserve
accumulation has continued
||ECB's Noyer commented that French
banks have made necessary capital level provisions . he stated that
perhaps the largest of French banking write downs might already been
made. Global crisis underlines the need for medium term monetary policy
and central banks should not follow pro- cyclicality of markets.
Central banks should focus more on markets to foresee imbalances |||
ECB's Constancio stated that the Euro-zone economic growth to be very
negative in 2009, but the pace of recession wass abating ||| ECB's
Nowotny commented that there were signs of economic improvement but
recovery might not be rapid. He did note that the money market
mechanisms are working again and commented that Eastern Europe would
recover quickly||| Treasury Sec Geithner will give China a "pass" on
Yuan, trade issues; to reaffirm support for strong USD and to pledge to
reduce deficit || China's PBoC commented that the global economy has
yet to hit a bottom and the trend of any Chinese recovery has yet to be
established . There was great uncertainty over global commodity prices
but that the central bank will continue to ensure ample liquidity ||
Moody's Analysts note that Turkey can make due through the summer
without IMF financing although it noted that the absence of IMF funding
would constrain economic growth || Swedish Riksbank provided results
from its spring survey. The central bank noted that risk propensity
increased in market and that half the survey believed that
economic/financial crisis has peaked || German Cabinet approved second
supplementary budget with provisions for record borrowing of â‚¬47.6B
In Currencies: The exhibited strength in the session. The GBP/USD pair
tested above the 1.60 handle for the first time since Nov 6th. EUR/GBP
cross revisited earlier monthly lows of 0.8720. Dealers did note of
chatter circulating in Asia of a "large buying" in the EUR/GBP cross at
the London fixing later today. The EUR/USD consolidated in the mid-1.39
area and dealers noted that the pair continued to lack the momentum to
successfully overcome the 1.40 handle.
||The JPY was a touch
weaker as dealer took notice of two large Toshin funds being launched
today and rumored to total $2.7B.Traders were unsure whether the demand
had been strong with one fund targeting financial sector equities and
the other fund targeting high yield emerging market investments.||| The
CAD remains strong and testing below its 200-week moving avg at 1.1147
as NYMEX crude tested above the $63 handle in the session.
Fixed Income: Germany sold â‚¬6.3B in a new Schatz with strong results.
The auction was covered 1.9 times, above the average of 1.7 in the
preceding three auctions. European government bonds are weaker this
morning, but following selling in longer parts of the US yield curve
late yesterday , the Bund is now trading less than 10bps cheap to the
10y Note, with the spread having halved from its widest levels of the
month. The 10y Gilts is now just 16bps cheap to the 10y Note, having
traded as wide as 49bps in early May |||S&P may make a decision on
New Zealand's rating by as early as tomorrow night, after the country's
budget statement . According to the report, 3 S&P executives are in
New Zealand looking at whether to take its AA+ rating off negative
watch to stable or to downgrade the rating. Fitch Analysts commented
that a budget deficit of 5% of GDP would not in itself trigger a credit
downgrade for the country ||
- I n Energy: Saudi Oil
Min commented that rising oil price reflected optimism that the economy
will improve in the future. He noted that the global economy could
handle oil at $75/barrel and was hoping for better compliance on output
targets among OPEC members || IEA's Didier commented that OPEC probably
would not see need for any new output cuts at its May meeting this
week. He noted that the US driving season, which began officially last
weekend might be busier than that seen in 2008
- Credit Crisis:
Former US Treasury undersecretary John Taylor wrote in the Financial
Time on the US debt outlkook entitled "Exploding debt threatens
America". He noted that Standard and Poor's decision to downgrade its
outlook for British sovereign debt from "stable" to "negative" should
be a wake-up call for the US Congress and administration. The article
Under President Barack Obama's budget plan, the federal debt is
exploding. To be precise, it is rising - and will continue to rise -
much faster than gross domestic product, a measure of America's ability
to service it. The federal debt was equivalent to 41% of GDP at the end
of 2008; the Congressional Budget Office projects it will increase to
82% of GDP in 10 years. With no change in policy, it could hit 100% of
GDP in just another five years. Taylor believe the risk posed by this
debt is systemic and could do more damage to the economy than the
recent financial crisis
*** NOTES ***
- Lots of
ECB speak in the session; overall tone is cautious on the growth front
but perhaps the worst of the global recession is behind . ECB's
Liikanen reiterated the view that interest rates at 1.00% were
appropriate at this time. ECB has not decided if they are at lowest
- German States May inflation data was lower across the boardâ€¦deflation or dis-inflation???
- BoJ minutes. Some members wanted to consider more steps if corporate finance worsened further
- China's PBoC: Global economy has yet to hit a bottom; trend of Chinese recovery yet to be established
- FT: Exploding debt threatens America.
- Looking Ahead: Second leg of US Treasury auctions;
- (GE) German May Preliminary CPI M/M: 0.1% expected v 0.0% prior, Y/Y: 0.2% expected v 0.7% prior
- (GE) German May Preliminary CPI- EU Harmonized M/M: 0.2% expected v 0.1% prior, Y/Y: 0.2% expected v 0.8% prior
- (PD) Polish Base Rate Announcement: No change expected, currently 3.75%
- 7:00 (US) MBA Mortgage Applications w/e: No expectations v 2.3% prior
- 10:00 (US) Mar House Price Index M/M: 0.2% expected v 0.7% prior
- 10:00 (US) Existing Home Sales: 4.66M expected v 4.57M prior; M/M: 2.0% expected v -3.0% prior
- 11:00 (US) Fed to repurchase Notes maturing between 05/31/2012 - 08/31/2013
- 12:00 (US0 Treasury's Geithner
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