- US equities are trading sideways this morning as another mixed batch of
housing data and plenty of caution around the financials keeps things subdued.
This morning's April existing home sales data offered a different take on
housing to yesterday's cloudy S&P/CS home price index. According to the
National Association of Realtors, sales of existing homes were up 2.9% m/m,
although there is grist for pessimistic mills in the data as well, with unsold
homes up 9% from March levels, with 10.9 months of supply in the pipeline.
NAR's Chief Economist said most sales are in lower price ranges, with activity
just beginning to pick up in the mid-price range and high-end sales still
sluggish. Front-month NYMEX crude is off its overnight highs above $63, trading
mid morning around $62.50.
- Treasury prices remain lower ahead of this afternoon's 5-year note auction.
Yesterday's 2-year results were quite strong but yields still pushed higher as trepidation
remains ahead of the longer dated paper set for auction the rest of this week
and next. The 10-year yield has moved above 3.5% sending the benchmark spread
above 260 basis points. Equity, bond and even currency traders are noting that
spread is rapidly approaching the all time highs above 274 basis points made
back in 2003.
- At a Sanford Bernstein conference this morning, JP Morgan CEO Jamie Dimon
addressed emerging concerns about commercial real estate losses, calling
commercial real estate "a shoe that's dropped" and warning that
losses from this area are increasing. He also said JPM was done building credit
card loan loss reserves and said the firms investment banking business is doing
well. Bank of America has updated investors on its capital raising program,
noting that it has placed $26B under its $33.9B plan, including the conversion
of $5.9B of preferred shares into around 436M shares of common stock.
- The FDIC discussed the performance of US banks in the first quarter of 2009.
Profits in the quarter were buoyed by revenues at a few larger firms, but
overall the credit picture remained grim as the number of banks on the brink
continued to rise and consumers and businesses increasingly fell behind on
their loans. Net profit at US banks was $7.6B for the quarter was down y/y but
much improved from the $36.9B loss in the final quarter of 2008. FDIC's Bair
said that asset quality remains a major concern, troubled tier-1 loans continue
to accumulate and costs associated with these impaired assets are weighing
heavily on banks.
- GM confirmed that its exchange offers to bondholders for $27.2B debt have
fallen flat. Yesterday there were reports that a paltry low single-digit
percentage of bond holders accepted the auto maker's to convert the debt to a
total 10% ownership stake in a reorganized GM. The company needed a 90%
exchange rate to consummate the deal. Overnight the WSJ reported that secured
lenders may get full recovery on their $6B in loans under a proposed bankruptcy
plan, with the Treasury likely injecting $50B in financing to back a GM
workout. Across the pond, the German government has paused the process of
selling Opel, calling offers from Fiat and Magna insufficient while also saying
that a bid for Opel from China's
Beijing Automotive Industry Holdings was under consideration.
- In earnings, shares of Take-Two are on a tear, up 12% in early trading after
the company reported in line with Q2 expectations and reaffirmed its full-year
EPS outlook. Note that TTWO guided a huge loss next quarter and also trimmed
its 2009 revenue forecast. Retail names in a broad range of businesses have
reported this morning. Office supplies retailer Staples met estimates, and
warned that it would not provide specific sales and earnings guidance for 2009
due to the ongoing slump. Car parts name AutoZone outperformed top and bottom
line estimates and increased its quarterly same-store sales. Bookseller Borders
Group reported half the expected loss. Apparel names American Eagle and Ralph
Lauren did notably well, with shares of both names up 5% or so. AEO met Q1
estimates and guided in line, while RL reported twice the expected earnings and
beat revenue targets as well. Executives from both firms were upbeat on
conference calls, with AEO's CEO saying the slump from last fall has leveled
off, while RL's CEO said that sales in the second half of the year would be
dominated by promotional activities. Jewelry retailer Zales offered dismal
results, missing estimates across the board, with shares of ZLC down 18%.
- In currencies, various cross currents were in play during the New
York session, as central banker trend, economic data
and bond auctions results battled it out to dictate the overall momentum. The
USD price action was mixed by the end of the New York
morning ended. Earlier the USD had fallen off its best levels on dealer chatter
that the US
might pursue a weak dollar policy to support manufacturing. EUR/USD probed the
1.40 area before retreating back below 1.3900. ECB member Provopoulos warned that
the financial crisis was still unfolding and the US
existing home sales failed to provide hard data that the worst was over, given
that total supply rose to 10.2 months from 9.6 last month. Other players had a
lot to say about the dollar as well: PIMCO's El-Erian said no other currency
could replace the USD as world reserve currency but warned that various holders
might diversify their basket of holdings, while the Russian Central Bank deputy
chairman reiterated the bank had not discussed plans to change the compositions
of the dollar/euro basket (currently 55% USD and 45% EUR). The GBP maintained
its firm tone it garnered in both the Asian and European sessions. The EUR/GBP
cross moved below the 0.87 level for the first time in three months.
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Mon 19 Mar 2018 Tue 20 Mar 2018 AA 9:30 GB- CPI A 10:00 DE- ZEW Survey Wed 21 Mar 2018 AA 03:00 AU- Employment AA 9:30 GB- Employment A 12:30 US- Current Account AA 14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales A 14:30 US- EIA Crude A A18:00 US- Fed Rate Decision A 21:00 NZ- RBNZ Rate Decision Thu 22 Mar 2018 AA All Day flash PMIs AA 9:30 GB- Retail Sales AA 12:00 GB- Bank Of England Decision A 13:30 US- Weekly Jobless Fri 23 Mar 2018 AA 12:30 CA- CPI/Retail Sales A 12:30 US- Durable Goods A 14:00 US- New Homes Sales
John M. Bland, MBA co-founding Partner, Global-View.com
Veteran FX Trader, Max McKegg, forecasts all the Major currencies and the Australasians; providing Daily and Medium Term Trading forecasts to subscribers, who include large Banks the world over, as well as individual traders in more than 30 different countries.
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