User Name: Password:      Register - Lost password?

Forex News Blog
Back to The Headlines
Wednesday January 19, 2005 - 11:28:57 GMT
Black Swan Capital -

Share This Story:
| | Email

A bullish bond (and dollar?) forecast

A friend sent to me the Hoisington Investment Management 4th Quarter Review and Outlook. Hoisington is fixed income manager serving primarily institutions. And they are very good at what they do because their economic analysis is excellent.

Early in ’04 they were bullish on long bonds, when the consensus was not. And we know the rest of the story. Again this year the consensus (I plead guilty) expects long bonds to get clobbered as the Fed hikes interest rates. But Hoisington says “the potential will again lie in the long end of the market.” Slower economic growth and lower than expected inflation are why.

I believe much of Hoisington’s forecast has implications for the dollar, for example:

1) On the falling dollar’s inability to stimulate export growth: “Most forecasters expect U.S. exports to improve this year because of the two year decline in the dollar, but this view may be too optimistic…We believe that global excess capacity and a fear of losing U.S. market share caused these importers to hold the line on prices despite the falling dollar.” [In addition, the impact of tighter monetary policy and higher energy prices means the major economies will be stagnant in ’05.]

2) Why we should see increased savings and less spending this year:

a. “Household debt levels imply that the financial condition of the typical American household is stretched. Household debt was a record 115.3% of disposable personal income in the third quarter, an all time high for the series… Repairing the consumer's extended balance sheets will serve to stunt spending.

b. Oil shock: "Each of the preceding oil shocks were associated with recessions [the current shock is the third largest of five since 1970]…Historically, the first response of consumers is to reduce saving to pay for higher interest expenses and energy bills, and only later do they decrease their purchases for discretionary spending."

3) Why inflation will surprise on the low end: “When the Fed says that it wants low inflation, and that it is willing to further tighten monetary conditions, the record suggests that it should be taken at its word…Thus, the macro economy will be characterized by too many goods chasing too little money, the condition that produces disinflation.”

“In the past twelve months the CPI increased 3.5%. This advance reflected a 56% surge in oil prices from the end of 2003 to the close of last year, as well as large increases in some key commodity price indexes to all time highs. In the present situation, such events are contractionary, not inflationary, even if they temporarily lift the core inflation rate. They are only permanent if the Fed monetizes them by accelerating monetary growth. The rate of increase in M3 like that of M2 dropped to a nine year low in 2004, effectively isolating the higher oil and other commodity prices. The CPI should reverse sharply to the downside this year, and the multi-year low in the core inflation rate lies ahead.”

Though Hoisington believes the Fed will continue to hike short-term rates, the sharp reduction in inflation due to slower growth, more consumer savings, falling commodities prices, and a stagnant global economy will push inflation rates sharply lower in 2005. The Fed achieves what it wants: higher real interest rates and slower monetary growth. And according to Hoisington, long bond investors get what they want: “…a safe and very rewarding investment.”

This economic scenario supports the view that a weak dollar does little to help reduce the US current account deficit. Yet it provides the backdrop for increased US savings (reducing the need for foreign funding of US deficits at the margin) and rising real interest rates. Both would be good news for the buck.

Jack Crooks.


Forex Trading News

Forex Research

Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."

Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.

Register To Test Your Amazing Trader

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 9 July 2018
AA 12:00 EZ- Draghi EU Parliament Testimony
Tue 10 July 2018
AA 08:30 GB- Ind/Prod Output, Trade
AA 09:00 DE- ZEW Survey
Wed 11 July 2018
A 12:30 US- PPI
A 14:00 CA- Bank Of Canada Decision
A 14:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 12 July 2018
AA 12:30 US- CPI
Fri 13 July 2018
A 14:00 US- Prelim University of Michigan
John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner,

Global-View Affiliate Program

We are starting an affiliate program to market some of our products.

Send me an email if you would be interested or if you know someone who would like to be an affiliate. Generous commissions payout for those accepted.

Put the word "affiliate" in the email subject line.

Contact us

Start trading with forex broker Markets Cube

Max McKegg's Daily Forex Trading Forecasts

Veteran FX Trader, Max McKegg, forecasts all the Major currencies and the Australasians; providing Daily and Medium Term Trading forecasts to subscribers, who include large Banks the world over, as well as individual traders in more than 30 different countries.

Request a TRIAL of Max's Forex Service.


Retail Forex Brokerage Changing!

Are you looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are more critical things to consider than you might have thought.

We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.

Our Best Brokers listing section includes:Forex Broker Reviews, Forex Broker Directory, Forex Broker Comparisons and advice on How to Choose a Forex Broker

If would like guidance, advice, or have any concerns at all ASK US. We are here to help you.

SEE Our Best Brokers List

Currency Trading Tools

  • Live rates, currency news, fx charts. 

  • Research reports and currency forecasts.

  • Foreign Exchange database and history.

  • Weekly economic calendar.

Directory of  Forex trading tools

Terms of Use    Disclaimer    Privacy Policy    Contact    Site Map

Forex Forum
Forex Trading Forum
Forex Forum + forex rates
Forex Forum Archives
Forex Forum RSS
Free Registration

Trading Forums
Currency Forum Guide
Forum Directory
Open Forum
Futures Forum
Political Forum
Forex Brokers
Compare Forex Brokers
Forex Broker News
Forex Broker Hotline

Online Forex Trading
Forex Trading Tools
Currency Trading Tools
Forex Database
FX Chart Points
Risk/Carry Trade Chart Points
Economic Calendar
Quicklinks to Economic Data
Currency Futures Swaps
Fibonacci Calculator
Currency Futures Calculator

Forex Education
Forex Learning Center
FX Trading Basics Course
Forex Trading Course
Forex Trading Handbook

Forex Analysis
Forex Forecasts
Interest Rate Forecasts
Central Bank Forecasts

FX Charts and Quotes
Live FX Rates
Live Global Market Quotes
Live Forex Charts
US Dollar Index Chart
Global Chart Gallery
Daily Market Tracker
Forex News
Forex Blog
Forex News
Forex Blog Archives
Forex News RSS
Forex Services
Forex Products
GVI Forex
Free Trials
FX Bookstore
FX Jobs and Careers
Jobs USA
Jobs UK
Jobs Canada

Forex Forum

The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.

Forex News

The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.

Currency Trading

Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by

Forex Brokers

The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.

Forex Trading

Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.

FX Trading

Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.

Forex Blog also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.



By using this website, you are agreeing to our Privacy Policy and Terms of Use, and Cookie Policy

Copyright ©1996-2014 Global-View. All Rights Reserved.
Hosting and Development by Blue 105