Concerns around US debt. US treasury yields rose sharply, 10yrs up 17bp,
despite a solid 5yr auction (well bid by foreigners). The attributed catalyst
was the rebalancing of mortgage book hedges for convexity reasons, but there is
a larger theme of record bond issuance driving yield curves higher (and to
historically steep levels) at play here. This aversion to 10yr bonds was duly
noted by US equities, the S&P500 falling in the last 2 hours to close down
1.9%. That, in turn, seems to have negatively affected risk currencies. Also
contributing to a moderately stronger US dollar was Chinas central bank saying
their economy is still under downward pressure; and Standard & Poor's
saying there is no credible replacement for the USD as reserve currency, the UK rating revision was not a warning message to the
US, and the US's credit rating was very safe. Moody's also
weighed in, saying the US rating was safe despite increased debt.
EUR weakened in a choppy manner from around 1.40 to just under 1.39. GBP
bucked the trend to rally from 1.5935 to 1.6085. USD/JPY dipped from
95.50 to 94.65, recovering to 95.20.
AUD spent much of the London and NY sessions clustered around 0.7850, with a
sudden drop an hour ago to 0.7770.
NZD ranged around 0.6200, the sudden drop this morning to 0.6160.
AUD/NZD edged higher to a 1.26 to 1.27 ranged, and will remain nervous ahead of
the NZ budget release at NZT.
US existing home sales continue to
see-saw, most recently rising
2.9% in April, although the annualised pace remains within the 4.49mn to 4.74mn
range that has prevailed since November last year (down from 2005's 7.25mn
peak). On this basis, we can increasingly confidently call the
"bottom" for this sector of the US housing market, as long as we recognise that
sales are being supported by the distressed vending of foreclosed properties at
knockdown prices. That view is supported by the price data, down 15.4% yr
compared to April 2008; the excessive supply of unsold homes is likely to keep
that downward pressure on prices for some time yet.
US FHFA house prices down 1.1% in
March. The separate government
house price measure, based on homes that have been sold at least twice and
financed via Freddie Mac or Fannie Mae, resumed its downtrend back in March
after surprise gains in the first two months of 2009. The annual rate of
decline for this index in Q1 was -7.1% yr, compared to the cycle low of -8.3%
yr in Q4 last year. This single digit pace of decline compares to the much
steeper annual falls recorded by the NAR price data above and Tuesday's
S&P-CS measures, both well into double digit negatives. Those measures have
broader coverage of housing transactions across the US and tend to feature more distressed sales than
the FHFA data.
Treasury Secretary Geithner said the economy was showing some initial signs
of stability although we would characterise most of the data as indicating a
slower pace of decline.
Japan's trade balance close to expectations at
-JPY52bn s.a. The raw balance
was +JPY69bn, which is the relevant number for the analysis of financial flows.
Exports moderated their rate of decline to -39% from -46%yr, while imports
recorded a 36% rate of decline (-37% in March). Also today, small business
confidence for May showed a modest uptick from 30.8 to 34.1, with one-month
ahead expectations factoring in a further gain to 37.4.
The annual German inflation rate fell
to zero this month, the lowest
since records for reunified Germany began in 1992, beating the previous low-point of
0.2% yr in 1999. The annual inflation rate peaked just ten months ago in July
2008 at 3.3% yr.
UK banks issue 28k mortgages in April. The number of new mortgages approved by UK banks bottomed out at 18k per month in November
last year (down from the 87.5k peak earlier this decade), but had shown some
signs of recovery earlier this year. However that upswing seems to have stalled
in recent months. Industry wide data will be published by the Bank of England
next week (the banks currently have a 68% share of new approvals).
The NZD is sitting on 0.6150 minor support right
now, a break pointing to 0.6100 which should hold on the day, barring event
shock (such as an S&P downgrade tonight after the budget). Market consensus
is for NZ's AA+ rating to remain intact, but with the negative outlook
attached; that scenario would likely produce only a small relief rally at best.
Daily Forex Market News Forex news reports can be found on the forex research
headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports
provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex
market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found
Forex News Real-time forex market news reports and features providing
other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the
headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest
forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less
recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines
and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports
from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."
Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.
Mon 10 Sep 2018 AA 08:30 GB- GDP, Trade, Output Tue 11 Sep 2018 AA 08:30 GB- Employment Decision A 09:00 DE- ZEW Survey Wed 12 Sep 2018 A 12:30 US- PPI A 14:30 US- EIA Crude A 18:00 US- Beige Book Thu 13 Sep 2018 A 1:30 AU- Employment AA 11:00 GB- Bank of England Decision AA 11:45 EZ- European Central Bank Decision A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless AA 12:30 US- CPI Fri 14 Sep 2018 A 08:30 GB- GDP AA 12:30 US- Retail Sales A 13:15 US- Industrial Production AA 14:00 US- prelim University of Michigan
John M. Bland, MBA co-founding Partner, Global-View.com
Global-View Affiliate Program
We are starting an affiliate program to market some of our products.
Send me an email if you would be interested or if you know someone who would like to be an affiliate. Generous commissions payout for those accepted.
Put the word "affiliate" in the email subject line.
Veteran FX Trader, Max McKegg, forecasts all the Major currencies and the Australasians; providing Daily and Medium Term Trading forecasts to subscribers, who include large Banks the world over, as well as individual traders in more than 30 different countries.
looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are
more critical things to consider than you might have thought.
We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View
has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've
seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.
The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.
The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.
Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by Global-View.com.
The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.
Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.
Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.
Global-View.com also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at Global-View.com. This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.
WARNING: FOREIGN EXCHANGE TRADING AND INVESTMENT IN DERIVATIVES
CAN BE VERY SPECULATIVE AND MAY RESULT IN LOSSES AS WELL AS PROFITS. FOREIGN
EXCHANGE AND DERIVATIVES TRADING IS NOT SUITABLE FOR MANY MEMBERS OF THE
PUBLIC AND ONLY RISK CAPITAL SHOULD BE APPLIED. THE WEBSITE DOES NOT TAKE
INTO ACCOUNT SPECIAL INVESTMENT GOALS, THE FINANCIAL SITUATION OR SPECIFIC
REQUIREMENTS OF INDIVIDUAL USERS. YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER YOUR FINANCIAL
SITUATION AND CONSULT YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISORS AS TO THE SUITABILITY TO YOUR
SITUATION PRIOR TO MAKING ANY INVESTMENT OR ENTERING INTO ANY TRANSACTIONS.