- In equities: Equity markets opened to the downside for the second straight
session. The heavy equity tone seen in the NY afternoon and through the Asian
trading session carried into the European morning. Disappointing earnings out
of UK listed
names, including Wolseley [WOS.UK] and Man Group [EMG.UK] aided to the opening
weight. News that Germany's
OPEL decision would be officially delayed until at least Friday meant that
uncertainly continued to move auto sector names to the downside [F.IT]. Steel
names traded lower following comments out of Posco [PKX] that the group had
accepted iron ore price cuts in line with Nippon Steel (-33% y/y) compared to
the sought after -40% y/y. Markets opened below the -1% mark on first calls
across Europe and held those ranges through the first 30 min of trade. Equity
markets positioned themselves for German unemployment at 3:55EST by moving
lower from the opening range. German May unemployment came in ahead of
expectations, with a rate of 8.2% v 8.4%e but labor office comments that
extraordinary effects in the accounting had lowered numbers muted the true
effect of the number. VDMA comments on German industrial orders, seen at -58%
y/y, the largest yearly decline since 1950, drove further selling into pan
European industrials and export names. Market volumes remained depressed across
European exchanges and this was represented by the choppy nature seen in both
the DAX and CAX while the FTSE maintained a tight range throughout the session.
Past 5:15EST, equity markets showed signs of recovery as both the CAC and DAX
floated towards their best levels, down less than -1.0%. Trading patterns
remained choppy on thin volumes.
- In individual stocks: RBS: [RBS.UK] According to FT, the plan to sell off
some of its Asian assets is facing delays in securing bids. HSBC and Standard
Chartered failed to place bids for RBS' retail and commercial operations in 8
Asian countries. ||Tesco [TSCO.UK] Moody's lowered its outlook to negative from
stable; ratings reaffirmed at A3. Stated that debt protection rates were at
increasing risk due to volatile cap markets. || Wolseley [WOS.UK] Reported 9
Month Pretax: Â£72M, which was down-80% y/y; Rev Â£12.1B +0.2% y/y; cutting FY
CAPEX. Markets have continued to weaken in March and April against the
background of deteriorating economic conditions. || Man Group [EMG.UK] Reports
FY09 Net fee income $358M v $936M y/y, AUM $46.8B v $74.6B y/y. ROE 13.5% v
41.6% y/y, || Tate & Lyle [TATE.UK] Reported FY09 Adj pretax Â£245M b
Â£243Me, Rev Â£3.55B v Â£3.4Be. || Ahold [AH.NV] Reports Q1 Net income â‚¬196M v
â‚¬236Me, Op profit â‚¬396M v â‚¬389Me, Rev â‚¬8.7B v â‚¬8.6Be. Q1 retail op margin 4.8%,
Group is taking aggressive actions in CEE region, Have seen margins hold up in
Dutch and US units. Took net provision of â‚¬66M on lease provisions. ||
ThyssenKrupp [TKA.GE] CEO: Seeking partners for a ship yard operation; eyeing
consolidation in stainless steel -Manager Magazine. Offers CVRD a larger stake
in Brazilian facility. Still seeking larger consolidation in stainless steel
- Speakers: S&P Senior Analyst commented that the US AAA sovereign rating
was not under immediate threat. The agency would comment on US sovereugn
ratings over the few days. S&P noted that the Obama Administration has a
good plan to reduce debt and that the US
economy remained highly resilient and flexible. S&P stated that the US
economy would be one of the first nations to recover from recession. Thus
S&P believes the US
is supported by stronger medium term outlook ||| ECB Nowotny commented that
there were signs of green shoots in economy and improvements in capital
markets. He reiterated that he expected low rates of growth following crisis
and bemoaned on the lack of EU penalty for excessive budget deficits|| RBA
Board Member Corbett commented that he would not necessarily support more
fiscal stimulus. He expected more quarters of economic contraction, but saw the
economy near a turning point ||| Polish Central Banker Filar commented that CPI
could hit 2.5% next year. He did not rule out any change in the central bank's
easing bias but noted that any interest rate hikes was unlikely. He saw Q1 GDP
well above the 0.0% level with economy bottoming out in Q2 ||| Czech Central
Banker Singer commented that further interest rate cuts were possible if ECB
lowered their refi rates. He also noted that disinflation and any deepening of
the global crisis could also spur additional interest rate cuts ||| Turkish
Banking Regulator commented that he saw profits at domestic banks in-line with
2008 levels and noted that the bad loans ratio rising to 7% to 8% of bank
assets by the end of 2009 under a 'worst case scenario' ||| German Labor Min
Weise stated that the German jobless total unlikely to hit 4M in 2009 |||
Russian Central Bank Ignatyev commented that interest rate could be cut again
in June. He noted that it might sell US Treasuries and purchase IMF bonds. He
noted that Russia
could experience some deflation in some months during 2009 and that the Russian
economy can restore growth in Q2 or Q3. Capital outflows might be much lower
than $70B forecast for 2009. Lastly, the central banker noted that further
appreciation by 1-2 rubles against the basket will be concern || S&P
Analysts commented on European European economic prospects as it trimmed its
2009 Euro-zone GDP estimate to -4.25% from -4.0% prior. It noted that a period
of low growth seen lasting through 2010 and that growth could slowly edge
upwards in next few quarters. S&P noted that early signs of recovery need
to be treated with caution as they saw forces against consumer spending to
continue to rise, specifically rates of job losses. S&P noted that it was
unwise to expect a strong economic upturn
- In Currencies: The JPY maintained a softer tone during the European morning.
The USD/JPY pair moved above the 97 handle for the first time since May 13th.
Dealer took notice of two large Toshin funds being launched yesterday and
rumored to total $2.7B. Dealers' noting that money was 'leaving Japan
in search of higher yields'. EUR.JPY was up almost 200 pips at 134.10, GBP/JPY
at 154.20, up 170 pips from its opening levels in Asia.
- The Euro retraced some of its losses encountered on Wednesday. German May
unemployment number came in better than expectations and rose just 1K and was
much better than expected 64K increase expected. The release also followed the
improvement in Italian May business confidence. EUR/USD at 1.3870 area, up 40
pips from its Tokyo open.
- The commodity-related currencies moved into positive territory ahead of the
NY morning. USD/CAD trading at 1.1180 and AUD/USD at 0.7830 area. NYMEX crude
little changed from its pit-trading close of 63.45 and Gold holding steady at
-In Fixed Income: Government bonds are weaker in Europe
this morning with bear steepening a common theme on both sides of the Atlantic.
Having moved below the all time high of 275bps in treasuries, 2s10s are at
record highs of 268pbs in Gilts at the time of writing, and at their widest
level since 1997 in Germany
at 225bps. Gilts have under performed, whilst the Bund has traded at or above
parity with the 10y Note throughout the session. Italy
sold â‚¬7B in 3 and 10y BTPs and â‚¬1.8B in floating rate BTPs with typically
robust results. The UK
successfully sold Â£1.25B in 2023 linkers, with results in line with previous
auctions. 3M Euribor fixed steady 0.94% where it appears to have reached a
floor, whilst â‚¬ swap spreads are wider in the belly and longer parts of the
curve. || Dealers noting widening of spread within Euro-Zone members. Spread
between Italian/German 10-year was at +103bps, around 3.5bps wider this
session, while the spread between Greek/German 10-year widened by 6bps on
chatter on reopening of Greek 10-year issue
- I n Energy: OPEC President Vasconcelos commented that it was better to wait
to cut at this time before making any new output cuts. ||Qatar Oil Min stated
that OPEC would not cut production at today's meeting ||
- Credit Crisis: FSA statement on its use of stress tests: UK
authorities have not applied stress testing in the same way as in the US.
FSA's noted that its use of stress tests has not been a one-off exercise, but
instead embedded in our regular supervisory processes, the FSA will not, as a
matter of practice, be publishing details of the stress test results. The
current stress scenario models a recession more severe and more prolonged than
those which the UK
suffered in the 1980s and 1990s and therefore more severe than any other since
the Second World War. It assumes a peak-to-trough fall in GDP of over 6%, with
growth not returning until 2011 and only returning to trend growth rate in
2012. It models the impact of unemployment rising to just over 12% and,
crucially, the impact of a 50% peak-to-trough fall in house prices and a 60%
peak-to-trough fall in commercial property prices.
*** NOTES ***
- S&P Senior Analyst: US rating not under immediate threat, will comment on
US rating in next few days
- OPEC meeting in Vienna today with no additional output cuts expected from the
total of 4.5M enacted since Sept. Compliance seen as key
- US stimulus not pushing down the long end of the curve. The U.S.
will need to sell $3.3 trillion of Treasuries FY ending Sept. 30 to fund bank
bailouts, stimulus spending and a record budget deficit. Seven year leg today
- Euro-Zone Consumer confidence at 6-month high; S&P noted that early signs
of recovery need to be treated with caution
- 7:00 (BR) Brazil May FGV Inflation M/M: 0.1% expected versus -0.2% prior
- 8:30 (US) Apr Durable Goods Orders: 0.5% expected versus -0.8% prior; Ex
Transportation: -0.3% expected versus -0.7% prior (revised)
- 8:30 (US) Initial Jobless Claims: 628K versus 631K prior; Continuing Claims:
6.745M expected versus 6.662M prior
- (SA) South Africa Central bank interest rate decision: Consensus expectations
is for a 100bps cut to 7.50%
- 9:00 (CL) Chile Apr Copper Production Total: No extimate versus 429.6K tons
- 9:30 (BR) Brazil Apr Primary Budget Balance: 12.3B expected versus 11.6B
- 10:00 (US) Apr New Home sales: 360K expected versus 356K prior
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Mon 12 Mar 2018 A 17:00 US- 3-Yr Auction Tue 13 Mar 2018 A 10:00 DE- ZEW Survey AA 12:30 US- CPI A 17:00 US- 10-Yr Auction Wed 14 Feb 2018 AA 12:30 US- Retail Sales A 12:30 US- PPI A 14:30 US- EIA Crude A 17:00 US- 30-Yr Auction Thu 15 Mar 2018 A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless A 12:30 US- Philly Fed, Empire PMI A 12:15 US- Industrial Production Fri 16 Mar 2018 A 10:00 EZ- final HICP A 12:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits A 14:00 US- prelim Univ of Mich
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