- In equities: Equity markets opened to the downside for the second straight
session. The heavy equity tone seen in the NY afternoon and through the Asian
trading session carried into the European morning. Disappointing earnings out
of UK listed
names, including Wolseley [WOS.UK] and Man Group [EMG.UK] aided to the opening
weight. News that Germany's
OPEL decision would be officially delayed until at least Friday meant that
uncertainly continued to move auto sector names to the downside [F.IT]. Steel
names traded lower following comments out of Posco [PKX] that the group had
accepted iron ore price cuts in line with Nippon Steel (-33% y/y) compared to
the sought after -40% y/y. Markets opened below the -1% mark on first calls
across Europe and held those ranges through the first 30 min of trade. Equity
markets positioned themselves for German unemployment at 3:55EST by moving
lower from the opening range. German May unemployment came in ahead of
expectations, with a rate of 8.2% v 8.4%e but labor office comments that
extraordinary effects in the accounting had lowered numbers muted the true
effect of the number. VDMA comments on German industrial orders, seen at -58%
y/y, the largest yearly decline since 1950, drove further selling into pan
European industrials and export names. Market volumes remained depressed across
European exchanges and this was represented by the choppy nature seen in both
the DAX and CAX while the FTSE maintained a tight range throughout the session.
Past 5:15EST, equity markets showed signs of recovery as both the CAC and DAX
floated towards their best levels, down less than -1.0%. Trading patterns
remained choppy on thin volumes.
- In individual stocks: RBS: [RBS.UK] According to FT, the plan to sell off
some of its Asian assets is facing delays in securing bids. HSBC and Standard
Chartered failed to place bids for RBS' retail and commercial operations in 8
Asian countries. ||Tesco [TSCO.UK] Moody's lowered its outlook to negative from
stable; ratings reaffirmed at A3. Stated that debt protection rates were at
increasing risk due to volatile cap markets. || Wolseley [WOS.UK] Reported 9
Month Pretax: Â£72M, which was down-80% y/y; Rev Â£12.1B +0.2% y/y; cutting FY
CAPEX. Markets have continued to weaken in March and April against the
background of deteriorating economic conditions. || Man Group [EMG.UK] Reports
FY09 Net fee income $358M v $936M y/y, AUM $46.8B v $74.6B y/y. ROE 13.5% v
41.6% y/y, || Tate & Lyle [TATE.UK] Reported FY09 Adj pretax Â£245M b
Â£243Me, Rev Â£3.55B v Â£3.4Be. || Ahold [AH.NV] Reports Q1 Net income â‚¬196M v
â‚¬236Me, Op profit â‚¬396M v â‚¬389Me, Rev â‚¬8.7B v â‚¬8.6Be. Q1 retail op margin 4.8%,
Group is taking aggressive actions in CEE region, Have seen margins hold up in
Dutch and US units. Took net provision of â‚¬66M on lease provisions. ||
ThyssenKrupp [TKA.GE] CEO: Seeking partners for a ship yard operation; eyeing
consolidation in stainless steel -Manager Magazine. Offers CVRD a larger stake
in Brazilian facility. Still seeking larger consolidation in stainless steel
- Speakers: S&P Senior Analyst commented that the US AAA sovereign rating
was not under immediate threat. The agency would comment on US sovereugn
ratings over the few days. S&P noted that the Obama Administration has a
good plan to reduce debt and that the US
economy remained highly resilient and flexible. S&P stated that the US
economy would be one of the first nations to recover from recession. Thus
S&P believes the US
is supported by stronger medium term outlook ||| ECB Nowotny commented that
there were signs of green shoots in economy and improvements in capital
markets. He reiterated that he expected low rates of growth following crisis
and bemoaned on the lack of EU penalty for excessive budget deficits|| RBA
Board Member Corbett commented that he would not necessarily support more
fiscal stimulus. He expected more quarters of economic contraction, but saw the
economy near a turning point ||| Polish Central Banker Filar commented that CPI
could hit 2.5% next year. He did not rule out any change in the central bank's
easing bias but noted that any interest rate hikes was unlikely. He saw Q1 GDP
well above the 0.0% level with economy bottoming out in Q2 ||| Czech Central
Banker Singer commented that further interest rate cuts were possible if ECB
lowered their refi rates. He also noted that disinflation and any deepening of
the global crisis could also spur additional interest rate cuts ||| Turkish
Banking Regulator commented that he saw profits at domestic banks in-line with
2008 levels and noted that the bad loans ratio rising to 7% to 8% of bank
assets by the end of 2009 under a 'worst case scenario' ||| German Labor Min
Weise stated that the German jobless total unlikely to hit 4M in 2009 |||
Russian Central Bank Ignatyev commented that interest rate could be cut again
in June. He noted that it might sell US Treasuries and purchase IMF bonds. He
noted that Russia
could experience some deflation in some months during 2009 and that the Russian
economy can restore growth in Q2 or Q3. Capital outflows might be much lower
than $70B forecast for 2009. Lastly, the central banker noted that further
appreciation by 1-2 rubles against the basket will be concern || S&P
Analysts commented on European European economic prospects as it trimmed its
2009 Euro-zone GDP estimate to -4.25% from -4.0% prior. It noted that a period
of low growth seen lasting through 2010 and that growth could slowly edge
upwards in next few quarters. S&P noted that early signs of recovery need
to be treated with caution as they saw forces against consumer spending to
continue to rise, specifically rates of job losses. S&P noted that it was
unwise to expect a strong economic upturn
- In Currencies: The JPY maintained a softer tone during the European morning.
The USD/JPY pair moved above the 97 handle for the first time since May 13th.
Dealer took notice of two large Toshin funds being launched yesterday and
rumored to total $2.7B. Dealers' noting that money was 'leaving Japan
in search of higher yields'. EUR.JPY was up almost 200 pips at 134.10, GBP/JPY
at 154.20, up 170 pips from its opening levels in Asia.
- The Euro retraced some of its losses encountered on Wednesday. German May
unemployment number came in better than expectations and rose just 1K and was
much better than expected 64K increase expected. The release also followed the
improvement in Italian May business confidence. EUR/USD at 1.3870 area, up 40
pips from its Tokyo open.
- The commodity-related currencies moved into positive territory ahead of the
NY morning. USD/CAD trading at 1.1180 and AUD/USD at 0.7830 area. NYMEX crude
little changed from its pit-trading close of 63.45 and Gold holding steady at
-In Fixed Income: Government bonds are weaker in Europe
this morning with bear steepening a common theme on both sides of the Atlantic.
Having moved below the all time high of 275bps in treasuries, 2s10s are at
record highs of 268pbs in Gilts at the time of writing, and at their widest
level since 1997 in Germany
at 225bps. Gilts have under performed, whilst the Bund has traded at or above
parity with the 10y Note throughout the session. Italy
sold â‚¬7B in 3 and 10y BTPs and â‚¬1.8B in floating rate BTPs with typically
robust results. The UK
successfully sold Â£1.25B in 2023 linkers, with results in line with previous
auctions. 3M Euribor fixed steady 0.94% where it appears to have reached a
floor, whilst â‚¬ swap spreads are wider in the belly and longer parts of the
curve. || Dealers noting widening of spread within Euro-Zone members. Spread
between Italian/German 10-year was at +103bps, around 3.5bps wider this
session, while the spread between Greek/German 10-year widened by 6bps on
chatter on reopening of Greek 10-year issue
- I n Energy: OPEC President Vasconcelos commented that it was better to wait
to cut at this time before making any new output cuts. ||Qatar Oil Min stated
that OPEC would not cut production at today's meeting ||
- Credit Crisis: FSA statement on its use of stress tests: UK
authorities have not applied stress testing in the same way as in the US.
FSA's noted that its use of stress tests has not been a one-off exercise, but
instead embedded in our regular supervisory processes, the FSA will not, as a
matter of practice, be publishing details of the stress test results. The
current stress scenario models a recession more severe and more prolonged than
those which the UK
suffered in the 1980s and 1990s and therefore more severe than any other since
the Second World War. It assumes a peak-to-trough fall in GDP of over 6%, with
growth not returning until 2011 and only returning to trend growth rate in
2012. It models the impact of unemployment rising to just over 12% and,
crucially, the impact of a 50% peak-to-trough fall in house prices and a 60%
peak-to-trough fall in commercial property prices.
*** NOTES ***
- S&P Senior Analyst: US rating not under immediate threat, will comment on
US rating in next few days
- OPEC meeting in Vienna today with no additional output cuts expected from the
total of 4.5M enacted since Sept. Compliance seen as key
- US stimulus not pushing down the long end of the curve. The U.S.
will need to sell $3.3 trillion of Treasuries FY ending Sept. 30 to fund bank
bailouts, stimulus spending and a record budget deficit. Seven year leg today
- Euro-Zone Consumer confidence at 6-month high; S&P noted that early signs
of recovery need to be treated with caution
- 7:00 (BR) Brazil May FGV Inflation M/M: 0.1% expected versus -0.2% prior
- 8:30 (US) Apr Durable Goods Orders: 0.5% expected versus -0.8% prior; Ex
Transportation: -0.3% expected versus -0.7% prior (revised)
- 8:30 (US) Initial Jobless Claims: 628K versus 631K prior; Continuing Claims:
6.745M expected versus 6.662M prior
- (SA) South Africa Central bank interest rate decision: Consensus expectations
is for a 100bps cut to 7.50%
- 9:00 (CL) Chile Apr Copper Production Total: No extimate versus 429.6K tons
- 9:30 (BR) Brazil Apr Primary Budget Balance: 12.3B expected versus 11.6B
- 10:00 (US) Apr New Home sales: 360K expected versus 356K prior
Legal disclaimer and risk disclosure
All information provided by Trade The News (a
product of Trade The News, Inc. "referred to as TTN hereafter") is
for informational purposes only. Information provided is not meant as investment
advice nor is it a recommendation to Buy or Sell securities. Although information is taken from sources deemed
reliable, no guarantees or assurances can be made to the accuracy of any information provided. 1. Information can be inaccurate and/or incomplete
2. Information can be mistakenly re-released or be
delayed, 3. Information may be incorrect, misread,
misinterpreted or misunderstood 4. Human error is a business risk you are
willing to assume 5. Technology can crash or be interrupted without notice 6.
Trading decisions are the responsibility of traders, not those providing
additional information. Trade The News is not liable
(financial and/or non-financial) for any losses that may arise from any information provided by TTN. Trading securities
involves a high degree of risk, and financial losses can and do occur on a
regular basis and are part of the risk of trading and investing.
Forex Trading News
Daily Forex Market News Forex news reports can be found on the forex research
headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports
provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex
market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found
Forex News Real-time forex market news reports and features providing
other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the
headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest
forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less
recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines
and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports
from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."
Elevate Your Trading With The Amazing Trader!
The Amazing Trader includes:
Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.
looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are
more critical things to consider than you might have thought.
We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View
has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've
seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.
The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.
The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.
Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by Global-View.com.
The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.
Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.
Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.
Global-View.com also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at Global-View.com. This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.
WARNING: FOREIGN EXCHANGE TRADING AND INVESTMENT IN DERIVATIVES
CAN BE VERY SPECULATIVE AND MAY RESULT IN LOSSES AS WELL AS PROFITS. FOREIGN
EXCHANGE AND DERIVATIVES TRADING IS NOT SUITABLE FOR MANY MEMBERS OF THE
PUBLIC AND ONLY RISK CAPITAL SHOULD BE APPLIED. THE WEBSITE DOES NOT TAKE
INTO ACCOUNT SPECIAL INVESTMENT GOALS, THE FINANCIAL SITUATION OR SPECIFIC
REQUIREMENTS OF INDIVIDUAL USERS. YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER YOUR FINANCIAL
SITUATION AND CONSULT YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISORS AS TO THE SUITABILITY TO YOUR
SITUATION PRIOR TO MAKING ANY INVESTMENT OR ENTERING INTO ANY TRANSACTIONS.