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Forex Blog - European Market Update: Indian GDP data helps commodities rise; USD sentiment on the ropes as diversification fears grow

Today 05:56am EST/09:56am GMT

European Market Update: Indian GDP data helps commodities rise; USD sentiment on the ropes as diversification fears grow

*** ECONOMIC DATA ***

- (IN) India Q1 GDP Y/Y: 5.8% v 5.0%e; prior quarter revised higher to 5.8% from 5.3%

- (GE) German Apr Retail Sales M/M: 0.5% v 0.5%e; Y/Y: -0.8% v -0.3%e

- (UK) UK May Nationwide House Prices M/M: 1.2% v -0.9%e; Y/Y: -11.3% v -13.7%e

- (HU) Hungary Apr Producer Prices M/M: -1.9% v 0.7% prior; Y/Y: 7.2% v 8.3%e

- (CZ) Czech Apr Preliminary Industrial Output Y/Y: -23.2% v -19.0% prior

- (TH) Thailand Apr Total Trade Balance: $619M v $2.17B prior; Current Account Balance: $426M v $650Me

- (TH) Thailand Apr Manufacturing Production Y/Y: -9.7% v -16.1%e

- (DE) Denmark Apr Unemployment: 3.3% v 3.2%e

- (SP) Spain Mar Current Account: -€6.55B v -€10.2B prior

- (SW) Sweden Apr Household lending Y/Y: 8.0% v 8.1% prior

- (SW) Sweden Q1 GDP Q/Q: -0.9% v -2.7%e; Y/Y: -6.5% v -6.6%e; Prior Quarter revised lower to -5.0% from -2.4%

- (IT) Italy Apr PPI M/M: 0.5% v -0.5%e; Y/Y: -5.3% v -5.4%e

- (NO) Norway Mar AKU Unemployment Rate: 3.2% v 3.2%e

- (NO) Norway Q1 Manufacturing Wage Index Q/Q: 0.9% v 1.0% prior

- (NO) Norway Apr Retail Sales Volume M/M: 1,4% v 0.6%e; Y/Y: -3.2% v 1.9% prior

- (PD) Polish Q1 GDP Y/Y: 0.8% v 0.8%e

- (EU) Euro-Zone Apr M3 Y/Y: 4.9% v 4.5%e; 3M Avg: 5.2% v 5.1%e

- (IT) Italy May Preliminary CPI (incl tobacco) M/M: 0.2% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: 0.9% v 0.9%e

- (IT) Italy May Preliminary CPI EU Harmonized M/M: 0.2% v 0.3%e; Y/Y: 0.8% v 0.9%e

- (EU) Euro-Zone May CPI Estimate Y/Y: 0.0% v 0.2%e

- (SZ) Swiss May KOF Leading Indicator: -1.86 v -1.78e


*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***

- In equities: -In equities: Equity markets in Europe snapped a two-day negative opening streak following a strong close in NY and Asian equity bourse movements. Markets were cheered by Indian Q1 GDP coming in better than expected at 5.8% for Q1. Seen as a further sign in a trend of macro recovery, exporters, manufacturers' and basic resources firms initially traded higher on the expectation of demand increases out of South Asia. Equity stories in Europe continue to be dominated by the same themes that have continued throughout the week. Fiat [F.IT] has again expressed its interest in OPEL and willingness to work with all partners. Comments out of Germany's Guttenberg that a German decision would be delayed until Friday seem to be little believed, no, expectation regarding OPEL is now expected until at the earliest next week. Continuation of discussion between Arcandor [ARO.GE] and the German gov regarding loan guarantees into next week delay the prospects of any decision on that firm's future, most likely until the June 12th date set by the firm as major financing deadline. Nordic region data at 3:30EST out of Sweden and Denmark provided little new direction as equity markets held tight ranges from the open between +1.0% to 1.25%. Data out of Europe throughout the European morning came in broadly in line and had little overall effect on equity trading. Continued weakness in the USD and strength in hard, soft and energy commodities drove markets higher. By 5:30EST, equity markets were holding their ranges +1.0% and began eyeing the approach of the US preliminary GDP figure due at 8:30EST.

-In individual equities: Severn Trent [SVT.UK] Reported FY09 Net loss £57.8M v gain £175.7Me, Rev £1.64B v £1.6Be. Proposes dividend of 67.34p/share (+2.6% y/y). || BA [BAY.UK] Moody's lowered ratings one notch to Ba2 from Ba1; affects $990M in rated debt. Cites weakening profitability and higher fuel charges; weakness in demands and yields. || Danone [BN.FR] Launching rights issue at €24.73 (31.43% discount from Friday's close). Rights issue to be placed through preferential rights to existing share holders || Puma [PUM.GE] The company is evaluating the future of its UK retail platform - FT. Property agents have been circulating details of all but one of Puma's retail outlets in the UK market, raising questions about the commitment to a high street presence by the brand in the UK || Strabag [STR.AS] Reports Q1 Net loss €129.3M v loss €120Me, Rev €2.1B v €1.9Be. Guides FY09 inline with FY08. Sees further negative market developments. Q1 Output €2.19B, Q1 Backlog €12.9B v €12.6B y/y. || Tiscali TIS.IT: Board approves second stage capital increase of €46.5M and 3rd stage of €25M capital hike. Confirms plans for €190M capital raise through share sale. To hold EGM to discuss operations. || Fraport [FRA.GE] To end shortened working hours for cargo unit as of next week. Have won additional contracts, see volumes reaching acceptable levels. || Bombardier [BBDB.GE] Russian RailRoads planning to buy 54 trains for approx €500-550M, Trains for 2013 Olympic games in Sochi. ||


- Speakers: ECB Trichet's commented that non-standard policy tools have worked, but that the ECB priority remains price stability. Upside inflation risks have diminished and long-term inflationary expectations anchored at target. Thus he reiterated the view that price stability remained the 'needle in the compass'. He defended the central bank's action noting that the ECB has acted 'swiftly, flexibly and decisively' during global crisis and lowered interest rates by historic amount during crisis

|||ECB Draghi commented that deflationary risk appears to be slight (change in language). He saw encouraging signs in economic and financial indicators and reiterated that global economic growth was expected to restart in 2010. However, he noted that the global markets remained volatile and that if banking sector health was not restored, the recession could be longer. He saw interest rates increasing over next two years due to big government borrowing. Interest rates pressures would increase once the recession ends. He stressed that governments need to substantially lower public debt following the crisis ||German Fin Min Steinbrueck commented that Germany must ensure Maastrict Stability Pact is not endangered; must protect credibility ||| ECB's Bonello commented that it was unlikely to see major economies recover until well into 2010 |||French PM Fillion commented that he sees unemployment rising across Europe. Noted that positive impact on the back of stimulus plan could be seen as soon as this summer and noted that Consumer spending remained resilient || EU's Junker commented that he believes that have yet see the end of financial crisis. He noted that currency exchange rate volatility remained excessive. Answers to toxic assets are satisfactory but markets actions remain 'irrational' ||| Polish Central Banker Slawinski commented that External forces caused slowdown in GDP data. Polish economic growth could slow a bit further and its outlook depends on investment. He guided 2009 GDP close to zero percent growth || BoJ executive Director Nakaso commented that the stress on corporate financing was receding. BOJ prior steps to help corporate financing has improved outlook but the end of temporary measures is up to markets


- In Currencies: The session took note that the long term dollar outlook was back in the spotlight as the green back continues to exhibit weakness against the major currency pairs, emerging market pairs and commodity-related currencies. Thus it appears the USD on the ropes. Comments earlier from South Korea's Pension Fund that it indicated a diversification away from the dollar fueled the sentiment in today's session. Attempts by US officials to downplay the USD depreciation have not worked to calm participants' sentiment. Fed's Fisher commented during the Asian session that the US "AAA" sovereign rating was not at risk. Dealers noting that the USD/RUB break below 31.00 level triggered some fresh buying in the EUR/USD pair. The EUR/USD moving towards the 1.41 level as the NY morning approached. GBP/USD hit its best level since early November as it tested 1.61. The USD weakness reinforced by higher commodities following the better-than-expected GDP number out of India just prior to the European morning. NYMEX July Crude futures tested the $61 handle, up almost $1.00 per barrel in its electronic session. Spot Gold firmer by $15 to hit $974.00/oz


-In Fixed Income: Fixed income futures were higher in the session with June Bunds at 119.60, up over 40 ticks, while June Gilts were up 65 ticks as it approached the 119 level. The US yield curve continued to steepen with the spread between the 2 and 10-year Treasuries at 166 bps


- I n Energy: Pres. Obama stated that it was not in Saudi Arabia's interest to have big spikes in US energy prices || OPEC's El-Badri commented that continues to encourage members to increase its compliance levels. He noted that it was too early to increase output levels. Reported 'cheaters' included Iran, Algeria, Nigeria and Venezuela. The General Sec stated that he forecasts range of $70 to $75 per barrel by end of 2009


*** NOTES ***

- Indian Q1 GDP beats expectations and prior revised up. Commodities rise in its aftermath

- Japan: Apr Indus Output +5.2% m/m, sharpest pace in over half a century (since March 1953)

- Fisher: US AAA not at risk. No evidence China wants to significantly shift its dollar portfolio.

- Korean Pension Fund to reduce exposure to US bonds

- US and China Treasury officials to meet next week


- Looking Ahead:

- 8:00 (SA) South Africa Apr Trade Balance (ZAR): B v -3,4Be

- 8:30 (CA) Canada Q1 Current Account: -$10.3B expected versus -$7.5B prior

- 8:30 (US) Q1 Preliminary GDP Q/Q: -5.5% expected versus -6.1% prior

- 8:30 (US) Q1 Personal Consumption: 2.0% expected versus 2.2% prior

- 8:30 (US) Q1 GDP Price Index: 2.9% expected versus 2.9% prior; Core PCE Index Q/Q: 1.5% expected versus 1.5% prior

- 9:45 (US) May Chicago Purchasing Manager: 42.0 expected versus 40.1 prior

- 10:00 (US) University of Michigan Confidence: 68.0 expected versus 67.9 prior

- 10:00 (US) May NAPM-Milwaukee: 42.0 expected versus 39.0 prior

 

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