- In equities: -In equities: Equity markets in Europe snapped a two-day
negative opening streak following a strong close in NY and Asian equity bourse
movements. Markets were cheered by Indian Q1 GDP coming in better than expected
at 5.8% for Q1. Seen as a further sign in a trend of macro recovery, exporters,
manufacturers' and basic resources firms initially traded higher on the
expectation of demand increases out of South Asia.
Equity stories in Europe continue to be dominated by the
same themes that have continued throughout the week. Fiat [F.IT] has again
expressed its interest in OPEL and willingness to work with all partners.
Comments out of Germany's
Guttenberg that a German decision would be delayed until Friday seem to be
little believed, no, expectation regarding OPEL is now expected until at the
earliest next week. Continuation of discussion between Arcandor [ARO.GE] and
the German gov regarding loan guarantees into next week delay the prospects of
any decision on that firm's future, most likely until the June 12th date set by
the firm as major financing deadline. Nordic region data at 3:30EST out of
Sweden and Denmark provided little new direction as equity markets held tight
ranges from the open between +1.0% to 1.25%. Data out of Europe
throughout the European morning came in broadly in line and had little overall
effect on equity trading. Continued weakness in the USD and strength in hard,
soft and energy commodities drove markets higher. By 5:30EST, equity markets
were holding their ranges +1.0% and began eyeing the approach of the US
preliminary GDP figure due at 8:30EST.
-In individual equities: Severn Trent [SVT.UK] Reported FY09 Net loss Â£57.8M v
gain Â£175.7Me, Rev Â£1.64B v Â£1.6Be. Proposes dividend of 67.34p/share (+2.6%
y/y). || BA [BAY.UK] Moody's lowered ratings one notch to Ba2 from Ba1; affects
$990M in rated debt. Cites weakening profitability and higher fuel charges;
weakness in demands and yields. || Danone [BN.FR] Launching rights issue at
â‚¬24.73 (31.43% discount from Friday's close). Rights issue to be placed through
preferential rights to existing share holders || Puma [PUM.GE] The company is
evaluating the future of its UK retail platform - FT. Property agents have been
circulating details of all but one of Puma's retail outlets in the UK market,
raising questions about the commitment to a high street presence by the brand
in the UK || Strabag [STR.AS] Reports Q1 Net loss â‚¬129.3M v loss â‚¬120Me, Rev
â‚¬2.1B v â‚¬1.9Be. Guides FY09 inline with FY08. Sees further negative market
developments. Q1 Output â‚¬2.19B, Q1 Backlog â‚¬12.9B v â‚¬12.6B y/y. || Tiscali TIS.IT:
Board approves second stage capital increase of â‚¬46.5M and 3rd stage of â‚¬25M
capital hike. Confirms plans for â‚¬190M capital raise through share sale. To
hold EGM to discuss operations. || Fraport [FRA.GE] To end shortened working
hours for cargo unit as of next week. Have won additional contracts, see
volumes reaching acceptable levels. || Bombardier [BBDB.GE] Russian RailRoads
planning to buy 54 trains for approx â‚¬500-550M, Trains for 2013 Olympic games
in Sochi. ||
- Speakers: ECB Trichet's commented that non-standard policy tools have worked,
but that the ECB priority remains price stability. Upside inflation risks have
diminished and long-term inflationary expectations anchored at target. Thus he
reiterated the view that price stability remained the 'needle in the compass'.
He defended the central bank's action noting that the ECB has acted 'swiftly,
flexibly and decisively' during global crisis and lowered interest rates by
historic amount during crisis
|||ECB Draghi commented that deflationary risk appears to be slight (change in
language). He saw encouraging signs in economic and financial indicators and
reiterated that global economic growth was expected to restart in 2010.
However, he noted that the global markets remained volatile and that if banking
sector health was not restored, the recession could be longer. He saw interest
rates increasing over next two years due to big government borrowing. Interest
rates pressures would increase once the recession ends. He stressed that
governments need to substantially lower public debt following the crisis
||German Fin Min Steinbrueck commented that Germany must ensure Maastrict
Stability Pact is not endangered; must protect credibility ||| ECB's Bonello
commented that it was unlikely to see major economies recover until well into
2010 |||French PM Fillion commented that he sees unemployment rising across
Europe. Noted that positive impact on the back of stimulus plan could be seen
as soon as this summer and noted that Consumer spending remained resilient ||
EU's Junker commented that he believes that have yet see the end of financial
crisis. He noted that currency exchange rate volatility remained excessive.
Answers to toxic assets are satisfactory but markets actions remain
'irrational' ||| Polish Central Banker Slawinski commented that External forces
caused slowdown in GDP data. Polish economic growth could slow a bit further
and its outlook depends on investment. He guided 2009 GDP close to zero percent
growth || BoJ executive Director Nakaso commented that the stress on corporate
financing was receding. BOJ prior steps to help corporate financing has
improved outlook but the end of temporary measures is up to markets
- In Currencies: The session took note that the long term dollar outlook was back
in the spotlight as the green back continues to exhibit weakness against the
major currency pairs, emerging market pairs and commodity-related currencies.
Thus it appears the USD on the ropes. Comments earlier from South
Korea's Pension Fund that it indicated a
diversification away from the dollar fueled the sentiment in today's session.
Attempts by US officials to downplay the USD depreciation have not worked to
calm participants' sentiment. Fed's Fisher commented during the Asian session
that the US "AAA"
sovereign rating was not at risk. Dealers noting that the USD/RUB break below
31.00 level triggered some fresh buying in the EUR/USD pair. The EUR/USD moving
towards the 1.41 level as the NY morning approached. GBP/USD hit its best level
since early November as it tested 1.61. The USD weakness reinforced by higher
commodities following the better-than-expected GDP number out of India
just prior to the European morning. NYMEX July Crude futures tested the $61
handle, up almost $1.00 per barrel in its electronic session. Spot Gold firmer
by $15 to hit $974.00/oz
-In Fixed Income: Fixed income futures were higher in the session with June
Bunds at 119.60, up over 40 ticks, while June Gilts were up 65 ticks as it
approached the 119 level. The US
yield curve continued to steepen with the spread between the 2 and 10-year
Treasuries at 166 bps
- I n Energy: Pres. Obama stated that it was not in Saudi
Arabia's interest to have big spikes in US
energy prices || OPEC's El-Badri commented that continues to encourage members
to increase its compliance levels. He noted that it was too early to increase
output levels. Reported 'cheaters' included Iran,
The General Sec stated that he forecasts range of $70 to $75 per barrel by end
*** NOTES ***
- Indian Q1 GDP beats expectations and prior revised up. Commodities rise in
- Japan: Apr
Indus Output +5.2% m/m, sharpest pace in over half a century (since March 1953)
- Fisher: US AAA not at risk. No evidence China
wants to significantly shift its dollar portfolio.
- Korean Pension Fund to reduce exposure to US bonds
- US and China Treasury officials to meet next week
- Looking Ahead:
- 8:00 (SA) South Africa Apr Trade Balance (ZAR): B v -3,4Be
- 8:30 (CA) Canada Q1 Current Account: -$10.3B expected versus -$7.5B prior
- 8:30 (US) Q1 Preliminary GDP Q/Q: -5.5% expected versus -6.1% prior
- 8:30 (US) Q1 Personal Consumption: 2.0% expected versus 2.2% prior
- 8:30 (US) Q1 GDP Price Index: 2.9% expected versus 2.9% prior; Core PCE Index
Q/Q: 1.5% expected versus 1.5% prior
- 9:45 (US) May Chicago Purchasing Manager: 42.0 expected versus 40.1 prior
- 10:00 (US) University of Michigan Confidence: 68.0 expected versus 67.9 prior
- 10:00 (US) May NAPM-Milwaukee: 42.0 expected versus 39.0 prior
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Tue 19 Dec
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
13:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
13:30 US- Current Account Wed 20 Dec
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
15:30 US- EIA Crude Thu 21 Dec
03:00 JP- BOJ Decision
13:30 CA- CPI & Retail Sales
13:30 US Weely Jobless
13:30 US- GDP Fri 22 Dec
09:30 US- GB- GDP
13:30 US- core PCE Deflator & Presonal Income
15:00 US- New Homes Sales
15:00 US- final University of Michigan
17:00 US- early Closes Mon 25 Dec
00:00 Christmas Holidays
Potential Trading Opportunities
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Mon--10:00 GMT-- EZ- final November HICP. flash data are rarely changed.
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium Tue --09:00 GMT-- DE- IFO Survey. Key report but usually not a market-mover
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium- Tue --13:30 GMT-- US- Housing Starts and Permits. Leading indicators of activity
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Wed --15:00-- US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing statistic
John M. Bland, MBA co-founding Partner, Global-View.com
Max McKegg’s Daily Forex Trading Forecasts
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