unemployment is on the rise, but industrial production is rebounding firmly as
confirmed by the industrial production data and manufacturing PMI today. The
sharp downturn has been present since late 2008 and despite increasing
production, inventories continue to drop at a fast pace. The PMI data has shown
its fourth gain in a row, rising to 46.6 but below the 50 mark. It is expected
that the Gross Domestic Product in Japan will turn positive in Q2 and will
probably exceed potential growth in Q3. Japan is like to outperform several
world economies including US and countries in the Euroland, in this early
recovery phase. In the last meeting Bank of Japan upgraded its view of domestic
economy, and itâ€™s likely that we wonâ€™t more quantitative easing from BoJ, but
in the same time we wonâ€™t see any interest hike either.
The Dollar is
trading back around the $1.40 level to the single currency. Latest comments
from Fedâ€™s Fisher that he personally doesnâ€™t believe that US will lose its AAA rating,
plus comments from European Central Bank, Constancio that he doesnâ€™t see a collapse
in the dollar, has failed to do any good to the US currency.
that ran out of steam from its strong rally of recent days, as the GBP hit
several technical level. In addition the CBI distributive trades survey, didnâ€™t
provide any support. Still, Sterling remains on firm ground and looks to start
the day in a steady pace.
There will be plenty
of significant data today, such as the May flash HICP and Aprilâ€™s unemployment
figures in the eurozone. In the US we will see Mayâ€™s Chicago PMI and the
revised Q1 GDP data.
This market research report has been prepared by Tamley Global Markets. The
information herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable and
although every effort has been taken to ensure that the assumptions on which
the report is based are reasonable, we do not endorse that this is accurate or
complete and it should not be relied upon as such. This report does not intend
to be an offer, or the solicitation of any offer, to buy or sell securities
referred to herein. All opinions and data herein constitute a Tamley Global
Markets judgment as of the data of the report and are subject to change without
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