- In equities: -In equities: Equity markets surged on the open following a
sharp pre-market session. Following its cue from Asian equity trading, the
second straight positive open was fueled by continued signs of growth of China
with a May PMI showing continued improvement. Signs of stabilization out of
China strengthened miners/basic resource names, industrials and exporters who
would be assumed to benefit most directly from a resurgent Asian demand. Energy
names trekked higher as oil continued to climb, Total [FP.FR] traded up over â‚¬1
and Royal Dutch Shell [RDSA.UK] sustained its upward lift following a JV find
with StatoilHydro [STL.NO]. Other major corporate news continued to be
dominated by the on-going saga regarding GM and its impending bankruptcy
(confirmed by US gov sources) and the divestiture of OPEL to Canadian/Russian
Magna. Shares of GM listed in Frankfurt [GMC.GE] and Fiat [F.IT] both traded
lower on the German decision and the possibility of political fallout began to
circle within Merkel's conservative coalition with Econ Min Guttenberg offering
a resignation (that was not accepted). Equity markets accelerated following the
open setting then session highs by 3:30EST with the CAC and FTSE over +2% and
the DAX over +3%. A wave of European PMI's out of Italy, Sweden, Spain, Germany
and the UK showed continued improvement, readings showed the highest levels
since Sept of 2008 (pre-Lehman). Through 4:00EST and into 5:00EST, markets held
their strong opening ranges on the back of same sector and regional strengths
as that seen at the open. By 5:30 the FTSE stood +1.75%, the CAC +2.50% and the
-In individual equities: General Motors [GM] Magna to acquire OPEL operations
in Germany. Germany to provide â‚¬1.5B in funding. OPEL to cut 11K jobs,
including 2.6K in Germany. OPEL to be placed under stewardship of trustee
group, shares of GM Europe to be temporarily shelved. Russian Sberbank (60%
state owned) and GM to take 35% stakes, Magna International 20%, OPEL employees
10%. GAZ to serve as industrial party with OPEL. Seen as success for PM Putin
in initiative for spreading Russian state supported business into Europe.
Russia is Germany's largest international trade partner. German Chancellor
Merkel: Blames GM for mismanaging the company. OPEL situation putting US-German
relationship under strain. Notes that Econ Min Guttenberg argued against OPEL
bailout. || Barclays [BARC.UK] Vanguard Group has bid $5B for iShares -
Telegraph. The bid from Vangard competes with the $4.86B offer from CVC. In
April, CVC agreed to pay $4.86B for iShares and Barclays has until June 18 to
seek a higher bid. CVC has the right to match any bid. || Royal Dutch Shell
[RDSA.UK] Has made North Sea gas discovery -Finansavisen. Gro field estimated
to have 300B and 1T cubic meters of gas. Overall production seen at 40% of
total reserves from the field. || Vodafone [VOD.UK] Company plans to bring back
2% pay increases after posting FY09 profit - Independent. The company has
10,000 UK workers. The company's decision to pay bonuses comes amid anger from
UK workers. In March, Vodafone said that it would not pay bonuses and freeze
the salaries of its UK workers. || Danone [BN.FR] is not looking to invest in
the company or Granolaro - Le Figaro. || BASF [BAS.GE] Dupont files lawsuit
against co. over herbicide tolerance. Claims BASF infringed biotechnology
traits similar to those used in DuPont's Optimum GAT trait. The lawsuit was
filed in the U.S. Federal Court in the District of Delaware. || Iberia [IBLA.SP]
The company and British Airways have scheduled meetings this week to resume
their merger talks - Sunday Telegraph. Note: On 5/22, it was reported that the
merger talks stalled and that a deal was "several" months away, due
to differences between the two companies regarding governance. ||
- Speakers: Polish Central Banker Filar: Economic situation warrants ending of
monetary easing cycle |||South African Reserve Bank's Mboweni: Current level in
Rand could mitigate inflation, but strength 'unwelcome' for balance in economy
||| Australia's Treasurer Swan commented on the April retail sales data
released earlier and noted that government stimulus contributed positively to
Retail Sales data and that the data was viewed as encouraging . ||| Former BOE
member Blanchflower commented that he expected UK jobless to average up to
100K/month in 2009. He did noted that there were some signs that the global
decline had slowed as confidence and consumer spending helped by lower mortgage
rates. He cautioned "green shoots" are very tentative and could be
- In Currencies: USD remained under broad-based selling pressure with Chinese
and Indian PMI data series again providing fresh hope that the worst of the
global economic recession was behind at this time. European PMIs also helped as
multi-month highs confirmed that confidence has bottomed out and that growth
will start to stabilize in the second half of the year. Energy and metal prices
were broadly higher in the session on the 'green shoot' scenario. Spot gold
approached the $990/oz levela dn NYMEX July Crude futures tested above the
$68/barrel level. The EUR/USD hit fresh 2009 highs above the 1.4240 level.
GBP/USD tested above the 1.6430 level and USD/CHF approached the 1.0600 area.
Commodity related currencies were broadly higher with USD/CAD moving below 1.08
and AUD/USD testing above 0.8130. The GBP was firmer as the may U.K. house
price data (released during Asian session) rose the first time in 20 months,
adding to evidence the UK property market slump was abating ||| Looking ahead
the the European interest rate decisions on Thursday, the U.K.'s Shadow MPC
voted were split in the decision about the BoE increasing the asset purchase
target, but were unanimously behind holding the repo rate steady at 0.5%, in
line with expectations.
-In Fixed Income: In the absence of any supply and against the backdrop of an
equity rally, Government bonds are slightly weaker this morning in Europe, in
thin volumes. Three month Euribor fixed at 1.27% for the 4th successive
session. HSBC analysts announced a positive view for Government bond markets
for the first time in 2009, expressing a particularly bullish view on longer
- I n Energy: IEA Deputy Director Jones welcomed OPEC decision last week to
maintain its current output quota. People are getting over the shock from the
global economic crisis and noted that the US summer driving season might exceed
forecasts. He noted that oil market fundamentals have not changed and predicted
that market tightening would occur in the longer-term. Compliance with OPEC
quotas was declining. An increase in OPEC production would be a good sign as
the 2008 production cuts have impacted market. Expects gas market to tighten in
longer term as LNG is a buyer's market at this time || IEA's Tanaka commented
that oil demand was not rising as fast as prices and he reiterated concern that
rises in price could harm economic recovery prospects ||
- Credit Crisis: Fitch commented that it saw further deterioration in UK asset
back securities (ABS) as delinquency and charge off rates to hit new highs
*** NOTES ***
- European PMIs register multi-month highs; Readings remain below the 50 point
no change mark thus pointing to ongoing contraction in the anufacturing sector
- US Treasury Geithner in China; Reiterates belief in strong USD; Chinese
investments in US Treasuries are safe.
- China PMI Manufacturing drops slightly M/M but maintains firm foothold above
the 50 level. India hits 8-month highs at 55.7
- GM to formally file for bankruptcy protection
- Looking Ahead:
- 8:30 (CA) Canadian Apr Industrial Product Price M/M: 0.15 expected v 0.3%
- 8:30 (CA) Canadian Apr Raw Materials Product Price Index M/M: 6.5% expected v
- 8:30 (CA) Canadian Mar GDP: -0.3% expected v -0.1% prior, Q1 GDP : -6.5%
expected v -3.4% prior
- 8:30 (US) Apr Personal Income: -0.2% expected v -0.3% prior
- 8:30 (US) Apr Personal Spending: -0.2% expected v -0.2% prior
- 8:30 (US) PCE Deflator Y/Y: 0.4% expected v 0.6% prior, PCE Core M/M: 0.2%
expected v 0.2% prior, Y/Y: 1.9% expected v 1.8% prior
- 10:00 (US) May ISM Manufacturing: 42.0 expected v 40.1 prior, Prices Paid:
35.0 expected v 32.0 prior
- 10:00 (US) Construction Spending M/M: -1.5% expected v 0.3% prior
- 10:00 (BZ) Brazil May Trade Balance FOB - Monthly: $2.5B expected v $3.712B
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Mon 10 Sep 2018 AA 08:30 GB- GDP, Trade, Output Tue 11 Sep 2018 AA 08:30 GB- Employment Decision A 09:00 DE- ZEW Survey Wed 12 Sep 2018 A 12:30 US- PPI A 14:30 US- EIA Crude A 18:00 US- Beige Book Thu 13 Sep 2018 A 1:30 AU- Employment AA 11:00 GB- Bank of England Decision AA 11:45 EZ- European Central Bank Decision A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless AA 12:30 US- CPI Fri 14 Sep 2018 A 08:30 GB- GDP AA 12:30 US- Retail Sales A 13:15 US- Industrial Production AA 14:00 US- prelim University of Michigan
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