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Forex Blog - European Market Update: European Manufacturing PMIs continue to show improvement but remain below the 50 level

Today 05:58am EST/09:58am GMT

European Market Update: European Manufacturing PMIs continue to show improvement but remain below the 50 level

*** ECONOMIC DATA ***

- (IN) India May Manufacturing PMI: 55.7 v 53.3 prior; highest reading in 8 months

- (SW) Swedbank May PMI Survey: 43.7 v 40.5e

- (IN) Indian Apr Exports Y/Y: -33.2% v -33.0% prior, Imports Y/Y: -36.6% v -34.0% prior

- (ID) Indonesia May Inflation M/M: 0.0% v 0.2%e, Y/Y: 6.0% v 6.2%e

- (ID) Indonesian Trade Balance: $2.08B v $1.675Be

- (PD) Polish May Manufacturing PMI: 42.5 v 42.1 prior

- (CZ) Czech May Manufacturing PMI: 40.5 v 38.6 prior; Highest reading in 7 months

- (SP) Spain May Manufacturing PMI: 39.8 v 34.6 prior; highest reading in 8 months

- (IT) Italian May Final PMI Manufacturing: 41.1 v 39.5e; highest reading since Sept

- (FR) French May Final PMI Manufacturing: 43.3 v 43.1e; highest reading since Aug

- (GE) German May Final PMI Manufacturing: 39.6 v 39.1e; 4th straight monthly increase

- (EU) Euro-zone PMI Manufacturing: 40.7v 40.5e

- (HK) Retail Sales- Value Y/Y: -4.4% v -6.5%e; Volume Y/Y: -5.5% v -7.6%e

- (UK) May PMI Manufacturing: 45.4 v 44.0e; highest reading in one-year

- (SA) South African Kagiso PMI: 37.3 v 35.6e, first increase since Jan



*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***

- In equities: -In equities: Equity markets surged on the open following a sharp pre-market session. Following its cue from Asian equity trading, the second straight positive open was fueled by continued signs of growth of China with a May PMI showing continued improvement. Signs of stabilization out of China strengthened miners/basic resource names, industrials and exporters who would be assumed to benefit most directly from a resurgent Asian demand. Energy names trekked higher as oil continued to climb, Total [FP.FR] traded up over €1 and Royal Dutch Shell [RDSA.UK] sustained its upward lift following a JV find with StatoilHydro [STL.NO]. Other major corporate news continued to be dominated by the on-going saga regarding GM and its impending bankruptcy (confirmed by US gov sources) and the divestiture of OPEL to Canadian/Russian Magna. Shares of GM listed in Frankfurt [GMC.GE] and Fiat [F.IT] both traded lower on the German decision and the possibility of political fallout began to circle within Merkel's conservative coalition with Econ Min Guttenberg offering a resignation (that was not accepted). Equity markets accelerated following the open setting then session highs by 3:30EST with the CAC and FTSE over +2% and the DAX over +3%. A wave of European PMI's out of Italy, Sweden, Spain, Germany and the UK showed continued improvement, readings showed the highest levels since Sept of 2008 (pre-Lehman). Through 4:00EST and into 5:00EST, markets held their strong opening ranges on the back of same sector and regional strengths as that seen at the open. By 5:30 the FTSE stood +1.75%, the CAC +2.50% and the DAX +3.25%

-In individual equities: General Motors [GM] Magna to acquire OPEL operations in Germany. Germany to provide €1.5B in funding. OPEL to cut 11K jobs, including 2.6K in Germany. OPEL to be placed under stewardship of trustee group, shares of GM Europe to be temporarily shelved. Russian Sberbank (60% state owned) and GM to take 35% stakes, Magna International 20%, OPEL employees 10%. GAZ to serve as industrial party with OPEL. Seen as success for PM Putin in initiative for spreading Russian state supported business into Europe. Russia is Germany's largest international trade partner. German Chancellor Merkel: Blames GM for mismanaging the company. OPEL situation putting US-German relationship under strain. Notes that Econ Min Guttenberg argued against OPEL bailout. || Barclays [BARC.UK] Vanguard Group has bid $5B for iShares - Telegraph. The bid from Vangard competes with the $4.86B offer from CVC. In April, CVC agreed to pay $4.86B for iShares and Barclays has until June 18 to seek a higher bid. CVC has the right to match any bid. || Royal Dutch Shell [RDSA.UK] Has made North Sea gas discovery -Finansavisen. Gro field estimated to have 300B and 1T cubic meters of gas. Overall production seen at 40% of total reserves from the field. || Vodafone [VOD.UK] Company plans to bring back 2% pay increases after posting FY09 profit - Independent. The company has 10,000 UK workers. The company's decision to pay bonuses comes amid anger from UK workers. In March, Vodafone said that it would not pay bonuses and freeze the salaries of its UK workers. || Danone [BN.FR] is not looking to invest in the company or Granolaro - Le Figaro. || BASF [BAS.GE] Dupont files lawsuit against co. over herbicide tolerance. Claims BASF infringed biotechnology traits similar to those used in DuPont's Optimum GAT trait. The lawsuit was filed in the U.S. Federal Court in the District of Delaware. || Iberia [IBLA.SP] The company and British Airways have scheduled meetings this week to resume their merger talks - Sunday Telegraph. Note: On 5/22, it was reported that the merger talks stalled and that a deal was "several" months away, due to differences between the two companies regarding governance. ||



- Speakers: Polish Central Banker Filar: Economic situation warrants ending of monetary easing cycle |||South African Reserve Bank's Mboweni: Current level in Rand could mitigate inflation, but strength 'unwelcome' for balance in economy ||| Australia's Treasurer Swan commented on the April retail sales data released earlier and noted that government stimulus contributed positively to Retail Sales data and that the data was viewed as encouraging . ||| Former BOE member Blanchflower commented that he expected UK jobless to average up to 100K/month in 2009. He did noted that there were some signs that the global decline had slowed as confidence and consumer spending helped by lower mortgage rates. He cautioned "green shoots" are very tentative and could be 'false dawns'


- In Currencies: USD remained under broad-based selling pressure with Chinese and Indian PMI data series again providing fresh hope that the worst of the global economic recession was behind at this time. European PMIs also helped as multi-month highs confirmed that confidence has bottomed out and that growth will start to stabilize in the second half of the year. Energy and metal prices were broadly higher in the session on the 'green shoot' scenario. Spot gold approached the $990/oz levela dn NYMEX July Crude futures tested above the $68/barrel level. The EUR/USD hit fresh 2009 highs above the 1.4240 level. GBP/USD tested above the 1.6430 level and USD/CHF approached the 1.0600 area. Commodity related currencies were broadly higher with USD/CAD moving below 1.08 and AUD/USD testing above 0.8130. The GBP was firmer as the may U.K. house price data (released during Asian session) rose the first time in 20 months, adding to evidence the UK property market slump was abating ||| Looking ahead the the European interest rate decisions on Thursday, the U.K.'s Shadow MPC voted were split in the decision about the BoE increasing the asset purchase target, but were unanimously behind holding the repo rate steady at 0.5%, in line with expectations.


-In Fixed Income: In the absence of any supply and against the backdrop of an equity rally, Government bonds are slightly weaker this morning in Europe, in thin volumes. Three month Euribor fixed at 1.27% for the 4th successive session. HSBC analysts announced a positive view for Government bond markets for the first time in 2009, expressing a particularly bullish view on longer dated Treasuries.


- I n Energy: IEA Deputy Director Jones welcomed OPEC decision last week to maintain its current output quota. People are getting over the shock from the global economic crisis and noted that the US summer driving season might exceed forecasts. He noted that oil market fundamentals have not changed and predicted that market tightening would occur in the longer-term. Compliance with OPEC quotas was declining. An increase in OPEC production would be a good sign as the 2008 production cuts have impacted market. Expects gas market to tighten in longer term as LNG is a buyer's market at this time || IEA's Tanaka commented that oil demand was not rising as fast as prices and he reiterated concern that rises in price could harm economic recovery prospects ||


- Credit Crisis: Fitch commented that it saw further deterioration in UK asset back securities (ABS) as delinquency and charge off rates to hit new highs


*** NOTES ***

- European PMIs register multi-month highs; Readings remain below the 50 point no change mark thus pointing to ongoing contraction in the anufacturing sector

- US Treasury Geithner in China; Reiterates belief in strong USD; Chinese investments in US Treasuries are safe.

- China PMI Manufacturing drops slightly M/M but maintains firm foothold above the 50 level. India hits 8-month highs at 55.7

- GM to formally file for bankruptcy protection


- Looking Ahead:

- 8:30 (CA) Canadian Apr Industrial Product Price M/M: 0.15 expected v 0.3% prior

- 8:30 (CA) Canadian Apr Raw Materials Product Price Index M/M: 6.5% expected v 12.1% prior

- 8:30 (CA) Canadian Mar GDP: -0.3% expected v -0.1% prior, Q1 GDP : -6.5% expected v -3.4% prior

- 8:30 (US) Apr Personal Income: -0.2% expected v -0.3% prior

- 8:30 (US) Apr Personal Spending: -0.2% expected v -0.2% prior

- 8:30 (US) PCE Deflator Y/Y: 0.4% expected v 0.6% prior, PCE Core M/M: 0.2% expected v 0.2% prior, Y/Y: 1.9% expected v 1.8% prior

- 10:00 (US) May ISM Manufacturing: 42.0 expected v 40.1 prior, Prices Paid: 35.0 expected v 32.0 prior

- 10:00 (US) Construction Spending M/M: -1.5% expected v 0.3% prior

- 10:00 (BZ) Brazil May Trade Balance FOB - Monthly: $2.5B expected v $3.712B prior

 

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