- Some of the most high profile US financial institutions are back in the
spotlight this morning with a fresh round of capital raising following the
Fed's updated guidelines for repaying TARP. Technical moves are also part of
the mix, after the DJIA surged into positive territory for the year around
10amEST, after breaking through the 200-day moving average. All three leading US
equity indices popped higher on these developments (the S&P500 broke above
its 200-day MA yesterday morning) and then immediately pulled back a bit. The
National Association of Realtor's April pending home sales are also a factor,
blowing out expectations (6.7% v 0.5%e) for the biggest upwards move since late
2001. The NAR's chief economist noted that buyers are responding to very
favorable market conditions and the first-time buyer tax credit, since buyers
have to finalize their purchase by November 30 to get the tax chit. Commodity
prices were initially consolidating even backing up slightly, but the late NY
morning saw a fresh round of weakness the Dollar which in turn supported
prices. July crude holding around $68.50 little changed on the day. Spot gold
is up $4 just below $980.
- US Treasury prices opened for floor trade on the upside as yields retreated
from yesterdays run at the multi-month highs made last week. The US
benchmark spread is back towards 170 basis points though, as prices came off
and yields rose following the better than expected pending home sales data. The
10-year is hovering around unchanged with a yield of 3.67%.
- Morgan Stanley and JP Morgan are in the market selling shares today in order
to pay back TARP funds. Morgan Stanley sold 80.2M shares at $27.44/shr for a
total of around $2.2B, while JP Morgan is selling 142M shares at $35.25/shr for
a total of around $5B. Bank of America updated investors on its capital raising
process, noting that has raised almost all of the $33.9B required by the
government in the stress tests. Regional bank KeyCorp also boosted its common
stock offering a bit higher, up to $1B from $750M. Deutsche Bank and Moody's
have both made bearish comments on the big banks. In a note, DB insisted that
banks aren't done raising capital, while Moody's see many banks as continuing
to be unprofitiable in 2009 and will need to continue their capital raises. BAC
is outperforming its rivals in early trading, keeping in positive territory,
while the other leading banks are well into the red. Note also that Fed
Governor Plosser told the FT that the Fed should not be involved in financing
toxic assets that date from the bubble era, calling the move a "bridge too
- In other equity news, shares of Cardinal Health are down 9% after the firm
raised its dividend and reaffirmed FY09 guidance at their investor's day.
Shares of ABC and MCK fell a hair in sympathy, but are nearly back to even mid
morning. PBG is up 3% or so after raising their forecast for Q2, although the
company also trimmed its 2009 outlook. LGF is down 10% after reporting a
larger-than-expected loss for FY09. UNFI is up 15% after outperforming
estimates in its Q3 earnings.
- In currencies, the dollar is continuing to hit multi-month lows against the
European pairs thanks to growing concerns about central banks diversifying
reserves away from the greenback. Russian President Medvedev brought up the
idea of replacing USD as reserve currency with a basket of currencies again, an
idea that was floated ahead of the London G20 summit back late March. The comment
was evidently preparing the way for the upcoming summit of BRIC nations (Brazil,
and China) to
discuss common issues. Dealers are keenly aware of recent comments from a
Brazilian minister in late May, to the effect that BRIC nations would discuss
the USD and might take actions to lessen dependence on it (most likely by developing
a currency basket).
- EUR/USD hit fresh 2009 highs as it tested the 1.4280 level where there were
reports it met some stealth selling by the Bank of International Settlements
(BIS). The euro consolidated its gains following some sources comments about
the ECB policy meeting on Thursday. The ECB is reportedly planning to consider
more asset purchases, while commentary from ECB members indicates the bank
remains wary of all the "green shoots" talk. The bank still has room
to lower interest rates but the timing of any rate moves has not been
specified. The yen weakened following April pending home sales, which helped to
bring another shot of risk appetite into the market. EUR/JPY is around 137.10,
up 40 pips from its opening level in Asia while GBP/JPY
climbed near the 159 handle.
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Mon 19 Feb 2018
00:00 CN, US- Holiday Tue 20 Feb 2018
00:00 CN- Holiday A 10:00 US- ZEW Survey Wed 21 Feb 2018
00:00 CN- Holiday A All Day flash PMIs A 15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales A 15:30 US- EIA Crude AA 19:00 US- Fed Meeting Minutes Thu 22 Feb 2018 A 09:00 DE- IFO Survey A 09:30 GB- GDP AA 13:30 CA- Retail Sales A 13:30 US- Weekly Jobless Fri 23 Feb 2018 A 10:00 EZ- Final HICP AA 13:30 CA- CPI
John M. Bland, MBA co-founding Partner, Global-View.com
Veteran FX Trader, Max McKegg, forecasts all the Major currencies and the Australasians; providing Daily and Medium Term Trading forecasts to subscribers, who include large Banks the world over, as well as individual traders in more than 30 different countries.
looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are
more critical things to consider than you might have thought.
We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View
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The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.
The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.
Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by Global-View.com.
The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.
Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.
Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.
Global-View.com also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at Global-View.com. This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.
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