Thursday January 20, 2005 - 00:58:40 GMT
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FX-Strategy - www.fx-strategy.com
Forex: Daily Forecast for the U.S. Dollar vs Japanese Yen 20th January 2005 Price:
Resistance: 103.17 ... 103.39 ... 103.84 ... 104.13
Support....: 102.69 ... 102.39 ... 102.15 ... 101.67
Slightly mixed - looking for breaks
Price reversed from just above our 101.90 target and is now pressuring the 102.98 high. This looks to break and should lead to gains through to 103.33-39 but we feel this should hold and cause a move back lower again. Thus only above 103.40 would trigger further gains towards 103.85 at least and possibly 104.13. Further resistance is found around 104.50 and 105.17.
Price is currently pressuring the 102.98 high and looks likely to break through and move to the next resistance at 103.33-39. Cautiously we feel this could provide a good selling opportunity with tights stops at 103.85. A beak back below 102.95 would hold and below 102.69 would encourage losses back to the 102.15-30 area. Further support found at the 101.67 low.
Elliott Wave Comments:
17th January 2005
With the drop from 1.8936 to below 1.8644 we are considering a more bearish structure now. This will mean that 1.9548 will have completed the move higher and as such we are in a bearish decline. The initial drop to 1.8644 may well have completed Wave (iii) though we feel that this is more likely to represent Wave (a) of Wave (iii). We consider the correction to 1.8936 could well have completed Wave (iv) but with daily cycles finding a low around now we that it may have been Wave a of Wave (iv) which is occuring within a complex correction. This implies a flat, expanded flat or triangle and we need to proceed with caution until the pattern is more strongly developed.
19th January 2005
The low at 101.67 yesterday appears to favor a short Wave -c- to complete Wave (iii) and while normally we would expect a 50% pullback of Wave (iii) we note that yesterday's retracement ended at 102.98 which marked a 38.2% retracement. This could have completed Wave (iv) but we feel that there is more chance of seeing a sideways consolidation for a day or two in the form of a triangle to end around 102.50 which would then imply a Wave (v) target around the 99.75 area - which is where the weekly and daily targets lie. However, given that this low is expected to be the major low for the year any drop below 101.20 would be sufficient to complete the basic pattern lower. Thus care should be taken once below 101.20.
(c) FX-Strategy Inc 2005
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