-In equities: European equity markets opened on a mixed note, just as they
closed on Tuesday's session. On Tuesday, markets did rally sharply following US
pending home data following a broadly negative session. The CAC and FTSE closed
moderately negative, with the DAX moderately positive on Tuesdays close.
Despite a strong Asian trading session following surprise GDP figures out of Australia,
the FTSE opened to the downside with the CAC and DAX moderately positive.
Continental gains were erased in erratic trading with the CAC and DAX moving in
and out of negative territory. Equity movers were dominated by news flow,
rather than sector or macro news with Bouygues [EN.FR] trading lower on
disappointing Q1 earnings in France
and Amlin [AML.UK] trading lower on rights placement news to fund a former
Fortis unit acquisition in London.
Industrials, miners and financial names traded mixed following a wave of
analyst actions to the up and downside driving trading action. Markets
fluctuated for the first 30min of trading before selecting a downward trajectory
past 3:30EST with the FTSE -1.0% and the CAC and DAX -0.3-0.5%. Markets
continued trending downward into 4:00EST, taking a brief lift past 4:30EST as
the UK PMI services for May came in above 50 for the first time since April
2008. This lift was cut short by action in the currency market as a joint
Asian-gov statement in support of the USD, soon followed by a Chinese note
supporting US Treasuries halted the multi-day dollar skid. Commodities,
including oil and gold turned negative as the USD index ticked up and European
equity markets resumed their downward march by 5:00EST.
-In individual equities: Amlin [AML.UK] Acquired Fortis Corporate insurance for
â‚¬350M, placing 23.5M shares (about 5% of shares outstanding). ||SportsBet
[SBT.UK] Reported Q3 Pretax Â£8.3M v Â£8.4Me, Rev Â£43.8M v Â£42.7Me. It announced
3.1M share issue. || Bouygues [EN.FR] Reported Q1 net profit â‚¬160M v â‚¬160Me,
down from â‚¬225M y/y; It lowered 2009 forecast for Rev to â‚¬31.3B vs â‚¬31.7B
prior. || HSBC HSBA.UK: Weakness attributed to chatter that Saudi investor
selling stake. Reminder: May 2 - Fears continue that Saudi investor al-Sanea
may need to sell down Â£2B stake. || [BMW.GE] Reported May total US Sales
22,993, -27.7% y/y; vs 19,362 m/m. || Daimler [DAI.GE] Reports Mercedes Car division
May US Sales 16,303; -33.4% y/y; vs 15,910 m/m. || Porsche [PAH3.GE] Reported
May US sales 2,796 units, -29% y/y; vs 2,044 m/m. || VW [VOW.GE] Reported May
US Sales 19,568, -12.4% y/y; vs 16,289 m/m. || Deutsche Bourse [DB1.GE]
Reported May Average Daily Volume at 11.8M v 12.8M y/y (-8% y/y), May Eurex
7.4M v 9.3M y/y, May ISE 4.4M v 3.5M y/y, Total may trades at â‚¬111.9B v â‚¬167.9B
- Speakers: Joint statement issued by Indian, South Korean, Japanese Monetary
Authorities noted that any US sovereign rating cut would have little impact on
their respective FX reserve policy and that there were no alternative to USD as
reserve currency |||ECB's Nowotny stated that the ECB staff projections to be
released on Thursday would not provide "good numbers" and commented
that there would be "massively negative" GDP for 2009 and zero GDP
growth seen in 2010. He noted that negative inflation (not deflation) to
persist in Europe for a "few months" ||| ECB's
Mercier commented that a negative deposit rate was technically possible but
noted the ECB did not want to give the market such a signal at this time.
Central Bank was reviewing asset-backed securities as collateral . He noted
that that 'technically' negative interest rates have existed in both Japan and
Switzerland ||| Reportedly Chinese Central Bank sees US Treasury holdings as
'partnership' -unconfirmed source ||| Chinese State Council stated that the
foundation for economic recovery was not solid, global crisis has not yet
reached a bottom. The Cabinet noted that unemployment rate continues to incrase
while the rate of job growth was shrinking |||BoJ's Kamezaki commented that it
was too early to discuss exit strategies from its unconventional actions. Would
exit temporary policies only when market fully stabilizes and labels the
markets as still unstable. Fiscal health will be the key factor in determining
proper L/T rate decisions, which should be in line with economy and prices.
Increase in JGB supplies are seen as only one reason behind recent rise in yields.
The BOJ member saw an economic recovery in near term, but the long term outlook
continued to remain uncertain. The Japanese economy continues to deteriorate
and its downside risks remain high. || Polish Central Bank Head Skrzypek
commented that the recent macroeconomic data has been more optimistic, and that
technically was not in crisis . he noted that Poland could sustain economic
growth in 2009 || Russian Presidential Aide Dvorkovich commented that Russia to
have stability in H2 of year and that a potential second wave of crisis can be
avoided || Indonesian Deputy Central Banker stated that it saw the Rupiah
currency appreciating further on the back of increased capital inflows into the
country. Inflation outlook and Rupiah currency allows scope for interest rate
cuts ||| German Auto VDIK reportedly considering raising 2009 sales outlook to
- In Currencies: USD and JPY currencies began the European morning maintaining
a soft tone on rising risk appetite as oil and metals maintained their uptrend.
European dealers were taking note of the positive Australian GDP reading
earlier today as the main catalyst for the renewed rising risk appetite .
EUR/USD hits fresh 5 month highs above 1.4335. Dealer chatter that the Bank of
International Settlements (BIS) was again seen selling Euros at 1.4330 area
capped the session gains. Comments from ECB's Nowotny about dismal staff
projections at tomorrows policy meeting weight upon the initial enthusiasm of
risk appetite and the Euro commenced its retracement process. The USD gathered
momentum following a joint statement by Indian, South Korean, Japanese Monetary
Authorities in which any potential US sovereign rating cut would have little
impact on their respective FX reserve policy. They also stressed that there
were no alternatives to USD as a reserve currency. EUR/USD proceeded slumped to
1.4212 from the 1.4285 level. GBP/USD fell 100 pips to 1.6545. Major
commodities reversed their earlier gain on the back of the advancing USD. NYMEX
crude probed the $69/barrel before dipping below the $68 handle while spot gold
tested $990/oz prior to the 'verbal intervention' to retrace below $981/oz.
Weak Euro-Zone GDP helped to maintain the weight in European currency pairs
(EUR, CHF, and GBP) against the USD.
-In Fixed Income: A pullback in equities and strong auction results have
combined to create a favorable market for Government bonds this morning in europe.
Germany sold â‚¬3.34B in 30y Buxls in an auction covered 2.2 times, well above
the 1.2 prior, whilst the UK sold Â£3.5B in 10y Gilts with healthy results. The
German yield curve has fallen off its steepest levels, with 2s10s currently at
221bps, having tested a EUR lifetime high above 225bps in early trade. 2s10s in
Gilts are right at record levels around 272bps, whilts Treasuries continues to
exhibit a flattening bias with better buying the belly and longer parts of the
curve. Yields on the 10y Note and the Bund have moved back below 3.60%, with
10y Gilts back below 3.80%. Three month Euribor fixed steady at 1.26%
- I n Energy: Norway Fin Min: Assessing oil funds active management
*** NOTES ***
- Verbal USD intervention by Far East monetary authorities buys the dollar some
time; BIS seen selling Euros at 1.4330 level
- Chinese Central Bank sees US Treasury holdings as 'partnership' with US
- European Service PMIs are mixed, UK climbs above the 50 level
- Russia May services PMI hits 7 month high of 46.6. and the RUB tests the
- BoJ: Mainly watching downside risks to economy and prices.
defies the wrath of the global recession as it GDP stays positive.
- Chinese Commerce Ministry say Foreign trade facing "unprecedented
- Looking Ahead: Focus now turning to the US jobs data
- 7:00 (US) MBA Mortgage Applications w/e May 29th: No expectations v -14.2%
- 7:30 (US) May Challenger Job Cuts Y/Y: No expectations v 47.0%
- 8:15(US) May ADP Employment Change: -525k expected v -491k prior
- 10:00 (US) ISM Non-manufacturing Composite: 45.0 expected v 43.7 prior
- 10:00 (UK) BoE to buy back Gilts in 5-10y maturity bracket
- 10:00 (US) Fed Chairman Bernanke testifies before house Budget committee in
- 10:15 (US) Fed coupon purchase of Notes maturing between May 2016- 2019
- Key European Central Bank decisions on Thursday (BOE and ECB)
- European parliamentary elections on Thursday
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Mon 19 Feb 2018
00:00 CN, US- Holiday Tue 20 Feb 2018
00:00 CN- Holiday A 10:00 US- ZEW Survey Wed 21 Feb 2018
00:00 CN- Holiday A All Day flash PMIs A 15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales A 15:30 US- EIA Crude AA 19:00 US- Fed Meeting Minutes Thu 22 Feb 2018 A 09:00 DE- IFO Survey A 09:30 GB- GDP AA 13:30 CA- Retail Sales A 13:30 US- Weekly Jobless Fri 23 Feb 2018 A 10:00 EZ- Final HICP AA 13:30 CA- CPI
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