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Wednesday June 3, 2009 - 15:52:24 GMT
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Forex Blog - US Market Update

Today 11:29am EST/03:29pm GMT
US Market Update Dow -70 S&P -11 NASDAQ -10.5

- US equity indices opened lower this morning as the morning's ADP job data spooked investors into taking profits after two days of strength. The May ADP employment change registered a slightly bigger decline than expected, while an extra 50K in job losses was added to the prior month's data. Nevertheless, the data is still showing big improvements over the 600K+ declines seen in the first three months of the year. Fed Chairman Bernanke is testifying before Congress this morning, telling legislators that the US cannot keep borrowing indefinitely to meet spending needs and warning that tax rates must ultimately be "set at a level sufficient to achieve an appropriate balance of spending and revenues." Front-month crude is well off recent highs, down nearly $2 around $66.75.

- Last night more details emerged concerning the Fed's tweaking rules under which banks may repay TARP funds. Among other things, JP Morgan, American Express and Morgan Stanley were all specifically told to raise more capital in order to pay back TARP, less than four weeks after they were told they had enough to deal with a deeper economic slump. Goldman Sachs was not asked to raise more capital since it had raised funds in April. There have been reports that Citigroup is looking to amend common share authorization up to 60B. Back in March there were various press comments speculating that Citi would look to boost its share authorization up to 40B to fulfill an exchange of preferred stock into common stock.

- Negative guidance calls from Aetna and Valero have dragged down both names and their respective sectors in early trading. Aetna cut its 2009 forecast to $3.55-3.70 from $3.85-3.95 thanks to rising medical costs and falling Medicare revenue. Wachovia and Credit Suisse cut their ratings on the name overnight. AET is off its worst levels in early trading, but still down 8%. Other managed care names were down on the news, with CVH, CI and HUM down 3% or so today. Valero offered Q2 earnings guidance of -$0.50, which compared very unfavorably with analysts' expectations for $0.74. Valero's Q2 has been adversely affected by extended downtime at its Delaware City and McKee refineries and by the continuation of weak sour crude oil discounts and lower diesel margins. Shares VLO are down 16%.

- Homebuilders Toll Brothers and Hovnanian are both heading in the same direction in early trading despite their divergent second-quarter results. TOL cut its quarterly loss to a bare minimum (ex write downs), beating analysts' estimates by a wide margins. The firms new contracts have nearly doubled, offering homes that some of the upswing seen in certain housing data is aiding the company. Toll's CEO said it appears some buyers are beginning to re-enter the new home market. Hovnanian's loss was bigger than expected, and its metrics did not quite show the improvements seen at Toll brothers. TOL is down 6% in the early going, while HOV is -10%.

- Tech journal Digitimes reported this morning that solar cell spot prices have fallen to $1.4/watt. According to the article, Chinese and Taiwan polycrystalline manufacturers were offering spot quotes of $1.4/W at last week's Intersolar 2009 trade fair. Recent research suggests the average industry manufacturing cost is around $1.8/watt. Solar names are giving up the gains of recent days on the news, with leading solar ETF TAN -5% on the news.

- In currencies, the greenback hit choppy trading in the New York session but held its firmer position as the ADP employment report prompted risk aversion and profit-taking ahead of the ECB decision tomorrow and Friday's US non-farms payroll report. The USD was wobbly as dealers debated the authenticity of a "joint statement" issued by several Asian monetary authorities; some have noted that reporters may have compiled the statement comments that were in fact made separately. Later in the New York session the back-month revision of the ADP numbers and the failed Latvia bond auctions prompted renewed USD buying against the major European pairs, with the Swedish Kroner especially weak given Swedish lending exposure to Latvia. This was tempered by comments from Bernanke that Treasury yields are rising on both deficit concerns as well as an improving economic prospects. The inability of the USD/RUB pair to sustain any downward momentum below the 30.50 level also aided the dollar, as the move cut the aggressive appetite for euros at the Russian Central Bank in its quest to smooth out its currency basket. The commodity currencies also retraced from their recent trend helped by weaker energy and metal weakness.

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Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

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Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

Wed 18 Oct
12:30 US- Housing Starts & Permits
14:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 19 Oct
01:30 AU- Employment
08:30 GB- Retail Sales
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 20 Oct
12:30 CA- Retail Sales & CPI
14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales

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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue-- 08:30 GMT GB- CPI top tier confirmation of Inflation.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT DE- ZEW Survey second most important German monthly Survey.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT EZ- final HICP revision to flash report. Revisions are usually minor.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 13:15 GMT US- Industrial Production. Top output indicator.



  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 12:30 GMT US- Housing Starts and Permits revision to flash report. Useful housing leading indicator.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 14:30 GMT US- EIA Crude. Top WTI inventory measure.



  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 01:30 GMT AU- Employment. Top economic indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 02:00 GMT CN- GDP. Top economic indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Thu-- 08:30 GMT GB- Retail Sales. Top consumption indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 12:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless. Employment Indicator.



John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

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