Forex News Blog
Back to The Headlines
Thursday June 4, 2009 - 22:19:58 GMT
Share This Story
global-view.com - www.global-view.com
FX Blog- GVI Forex Month Ahead Interest Rate Outlook for June 4, 2009
Central Bank Policy Outlook -- Key Interest Rates
Global Interest Rates
The Global-View.com Monetary Policy Outlook is prepared weekly by the trading professionals at GVI Forex. For information on the GVI Forex Service Click Here
7 June 2009
Upcoming Central Bank Meetings -- Monetary Profiles
Bank of Japan- Tuesday June 16, 2009
BOJ target rate (0.10%) already virtually at zero. No rate cut is possible.
Japan invented Quantitative Easing.
BOJ has been starting to upgrade its economic assessment.
Swiss National Bank- Thursday June 18, 2009
Market expects a -50bp cut in the 0.50% target for three month CHF LIBOR.
Swiss National Bank headed for an effective zero interest rate policy (ZIRP).
SNB would like to weaken the CHF vs. the EUR.
Inflation not issue; economy slow.
U.S. Federal Reserve- Wednesday June 24, 2009
Market expects no further cuts in the 0 to 0.25% target range for the Fed funds rate.
The Federal Reserve effectively has embarked on a quantitative easing policy.
Inflation not an issue; economy slow.
Focus now turning to Fed pronouncements on the health of the economy.
GVI BOJ Policy Meeting Preview
- Decision: June 16, 2009
- Current Overnight Target Rate: 0.10%
- Expected decision: unch
- Japanese interest rates virtually hit their theoretical 0% floor (0.10%). The central bank surprised many on December 22 by taking a page from the Fed's playbook and throwing everything but the kitchen sink at its weakening economy and an overvalued currency.
BANK OF JAPAN Policy Objective: The Bank of Japan Law states that the Bank's monetary policy should be "aimed at, through the pursuit of price stability, contributing to the sound development of the national economy."
The chart above shows year/year core nationwide CPI and the reported BOJ goal of between 0% and 2% for this price index.
The chart above shows the current three month libor rate, the current BOJ overnight rate target and where the futures markets are currently trading three month rates for the specified periods in the future. The chart also includes comparisons of where these futures rates were trading most recently, a week ago and four weeks ago. The chart provides a view on where the markets feel Japanese interest rates are headed.
The chart above shows the Japanese overnight rate target, three month libor, and two- and ten-year bond yields over the past twelve months.
GVI Swiss National Bank Policy Meeting Preview
- Decision: June 18, 2009 at 13:00 GMT.
- SNB 3mo Swiss libor target: 0.25%
- Expected Decision: unchanged
- The SNB cut rates by another -25bps in March. A move something like a ZIRP (Zero Interest Rate Policy) is probable.
SWISS NATIONAL BANK Policy Objective: The National Bank equates price stability with a rise in the national consumer price index (CPI) of less than 2% per annum. In so doing, it takes account of the fact that not every price movement is necessarily inflationary. Furthermore, it believes that inflation cannot be measured accurately. Measurement problems arise, for example, when the quality of goods and services improves. Such changes are not properly accounted for in the CPI; as a result, inflation, as measured by the CPI, will be slightly overstated.
The chart above shows year/year CPI and the Swiss goal of less than 2% for this price index.
The chart above shows the current three month libor rate, the current three-month Euro-Swiss target and where the futures markets are currently trading three month rates for the specified periods in the future. The chart also includes comparisons of where these futures rates were trading most recently, a week ago and four weeks ago. The chart provides a view on where the markets feel Swiss interest rates are headed.
The chart above shows the Swiss three-month Euro-swiss rate target, three month libor, and two- and ten-year bond yields over the past twelve months.
GVI U.S. Feberal Reserve Bank Policy Meeting Preview
- Decision: June 24 at 18:15 GMT.
- Fed Funds rate: 0 to 25%
- Expected Decision: no change
- The Fed cut rates virtually to zero on December 16. It also threw in the kitchen sink with easing measures. A ZIRP (Zero Interest Rate Policy) and quantitative ease (QE) has arrived.
FEDERAL RESERVE Policy Objective: The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and the Federal Open Market Committee shall maintain long run growth of the monetary and credit aggregates commensurate with the economy's long run potential to increase production, so as to promote effectively the goals of maximum employment, stable prices, and moderate long-term interest rates.
The chart above shows year/year core PCE for the U.S. relative to its its reported "comfort zone for this key price index. Headline and Core CPI figures are also shown.
The above monthly U.S. employment chart is included because its the most closely followed data release each month, and because one of the objectives of the Fed is to maximize employment.
The chart above shows the current three month libor rate, the current Fed funds target and where the futures markets are currently trading three month rates for the specified periods in the future. The chart also includes comparisons of where these futures rates were trading most recently, a week ago and four weeks ago. The chart provides a view on where the markets feel U.S. interest rates are headed.
The chart above shows the U.S. Fed Funds rate target, three month libor, and two- and ten-year bond yields over the past twelve months.
John M. Bland is an author and co-founder and partner of Global-View.com. Prior to Global-View.com, he was a Vice-President and senior dealer in a forex inter-bank and futures trading arm of a subsidiary (ContiCurrency) of the Continental Grain Company in NYC. Previous to that, he was one of the early members of the Chemical Bank corporate advisory service in NYC, and also worked in international liability management for that bank. John holds an MBA from the Hass School at the University of California at Berkeley and a bachelors degree in International Economics from Berkeley.
Forex Trading News
Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research
headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports
provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex
market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing
other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the
headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest
forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less
recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines
and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports
from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."
Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.
Register To Test Your Amazing Trader
GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
Mon 23 July 2018
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium
A 14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
Tue 24 July 2018
Wed 25 July 2018
A 08:00 DE- IFO Survey
A 14:00 US- New Homes Sales
A 14:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 26 July 2018
AA 11:45 EZ- European Central Bank Decision
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
A 12:30 US- Durable Goods
Fri 27 July 2018
AA 12:30 US- GDP
A 14:00 US- Final University of Michigan
John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com
Global-View Affiliate Program
We are starting an affiliate program to market some of our products.
Send me an email if you would be interested or if you know someone who would like to be an affiliate. Generous commissions payout for those accepted.
Put the word "affiliate" in the email subject line.
Start trading with forex broker Markets Cube
Max McKegg's Daily Forex Trading Forecasts
Veteran FX Trader, Max McKegg, forecasts all the Major currencies and the Australasians; providing Daily and Medium Term Trading forecasts to subscribers, who include large Banks the world over, as well as individual traders in more than 30 different countries.
Request a TRIAL of Max's Forex Service.