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Forex Blog - European Market Update: USD benefits from rising yields and European sovereign rating concerns.

Today 05:56am EST/09:56am GMT
European Market Update: USD benefits from rising yields and European sovereign rating concerns.

*** ECONOMIC DATA ***

- (SZ) Swiss May Unemployment rate: 3.4% v 3.5%e; Unemployment Rate SA: 3.5% v 3.6%e

- (TU) Turkey Apr Industrial production Y/Y:-18.5% v -18.0%e

- (CZ) Czech Apr Trade Balance (CZK): 12.0B v 11.3Be

- (CZ) Czech May Unemployment Rate: 7.9% v 8.0%e

- (DE) Denmark Apr Industrial Production Ex Ships M/M: 1.3% -2.4% prior; Industrial Orders Ex ships M/M: -14.3% v 48.0% prior

- (TT) Taiwan May Total Trade Balance: $3.2B v $2.3Be

- (CZ) Czech Q1 Current Account: €897.2M v €770.0Me

- SA) South African May House Prices -3.6% y/y- ABSA

- (EU) Jun Euro-Zone Sentix Investor Confidence: -27.0 v -31.0e

- (IN) India May cement output: 16.5M tons v 14.9M tons y/y

- (IC) Iceland Q1 GDP Q/Q: -3.6% v -0.9% prior; Y/Y: -3.9% v -1.5% prior

- (GE) German Apr Factory Orders M/M: 0.0% v 0.0%e; Y/Y: -37.1% v -33.0%e


*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***

-In equities: European equity markets snapped a two-day positive trend with a downside open. Equity market risk aversion broadly followed risk adverse EUR/USD and GBP/USD trades. For the Euro, weakness has been attributed to risk appetite in US Treasury yields and for the Pound, continued political uncertainty following last week's melt down in PM Brown's cabinet have continued. Equity markets pushed to losses over -1.00% by 3:15EST. Within the FTSE, mining names including Xstrata [XTA.UK] Rio Tinton [RIO.UK] and Kazakahmys [KAZ.UK] led the downward sector movement (paring last week's gains and on the back of USD effects on commodities) along with Lloyds [LLOY.UK] as it priced its rump offering at 38.43p/share. On continental bourses, currency dependent and industrial names including autos and airlines led the decline. Comments out of the IATA over the weekend predicting a -$9B 2009 loss for the airline sector added weight to Air France [AF.FR], BA [BAY.UK] and Lufthansa [LHA.GE]. Through the first 30min of trading, the only DAX30 listed share to trade higher was VW [VOW.GE], this weekend saw further speculation regarding the firm, Porsche [PAH3.GE] and financing options regarding the KfW fund and Qatar Sovereign Wealth Fund. Continued USD strength through 3:00 and 4:00 combined with light economic data provided little catalyst for further equity moves. As such, the FTSE and DAX settled into a range bound around the -1.00% mark while the CAC settled lower at -1.60%. Positive comments out of BMW [BMW.GE] regarding future sales outlook provided a slight lift to the German auto names past 5:15EST but equity markets as a whole remained to the downside, all trading -1.0% by 5:30EST.


-In individual equities: Barclays [BARC.UK] Confirms talks have been held with Blackrock over sale of iShares and broader asset management unit Barclays Global Investors (BGI). Reminder: back on 9 April Company announced sale of its iShares business to CVC Capital Partners for a total consideration of approximately $4.4B. The transaction is currently in "go shop" provision. Barclays may take 20% stake of BLK as part of the sale of Barclays Global Investors fund manager unit to Blackrock - Sunday Telegraph. || Lloyds [LLOY.UK] Seeking to place rump placement at 38.43p/share (42% discount from Friday's close). To redeem 3.48M preference shares from UK Treasury. To redeem additional 524K preference shares following rump placement. States that existing investors took 87% of rights offer (9B shares, approx 53% of current shares outstanding.) || Royal Dutch [RDSA.UK] CEO: Oil and gas cannot meet all additional demand; Oil price will surge without new investment, new "unconventional" energy source needed. Early signs of stabilization in gasoline and diesel demand in US and Europe. || BA [BAY.UK] CEO: Current downturn is the worst ever; No prospects of tie-up with Qantas being reopened. No change in taking aircraft deliveries. Says carriers can do nothing to stimulate traffic. Still very positive about Iberia merger. || CON.GE: A merged Continental and Schaeffler could be eligible for federal aid -Focus Magazine. Comments quoted from Prime Min of Lower Saxony. || Arcandor [ARO.GE] Reportedly German gov rejects aid request from special fund. Reminder: On May 5 -Has formally applied for €437M German State Rescue Aid Credit, application for State guarantees is unaffected by action. || Porsche [PAH3.GE] Reportedly continuing talks with Qatar Investment Authority -Focus Magazine. Investment from Qatar could either be direct investment in Porsche or in the companies options holdings in VW. Funds could be used to complete long attempted acquisition of VW . Article notes that decision on gov KfW €1.75B credit facility is expected this Friday. || Deutsche Post Bank [DPB.GE] Reportedly Deutsche Bank has raised stake to nearly 30% (25% +1 prior) -Handelsblatt. Analysts have noted that a stake of 30% would trigger a mandatory offer for firm. || BMW [BMW.GE] Reports May Group Sales 109.0K units v 101.6K units m/m. May sales -18% y/y. 5-month sales to May -21% y/y at 487.9K units. || IATA: Revises 2009 Global Net loss forecast to -$9.0B v -$7.4B prior, Revenue $448B v $528B y/y. Revises 2008 Net loss estimate to -$10.4B from -$8.5B prior. North American carriers are expected to show a loss of $1.0B. European carriers are expected to post losses of $1.8B with collapsing demand for premium services in all major markets served by the region's carriers. ||


- Speakers: BOE been in broad dialog on APF extension, to introduce secured commercial paper facility in near future . To purchase securities from companies making material contribution to UK economy |||Vice Fin Min Sugimoto commented that its Government would continue proper management of JGB issues ||| Turkish Econ Min commented that further sector-wide tax cuts are possible by June 15, 2009 when officials meet with the IMF. ||| UK City Min commented that he was "very confident" in UK Banks were in much stronger position |||


- In Currencies: The USD was firmer against the European pairs and supported amid the view that the rise in U.S. Treasury yields were due to rising risk appetite rather than concerns about the fiscal path of the U.S as $65B worth of U.S. Treasury auctions this week. EUR/USD tested 1.3855, off over 100 pips from its opening levels in Asia. USD/CHF was testing 1.0970 area on chatter that the BIS was buying USD in the session. S&P's cut Irish sovereign rating by a notch to "AA" from "AA+" and maintained a negative outlook.

- The GBP was again vulnerable due to continued uncertain political backdrop in the U.K. GBP/USD tested 1.5802, lower by 160 pips from its opening levels in Tokyo before retracing. EUR/JPY cross was lower by 150 pips at 156.00.

- The stronger USD continued to soften sentiment in both energies and metal commodities. Spot gold trading at $947.50, off around $8/oz while NYMEX Jul Crude oil was off $1.20 to $67.24/barrel. AUD and CAD currencies were softer on the back of weaker commodities. USD/CAD at 1.1270 while AUD/USD at 0.7845


-In Fixed Income: The curve flattening move which began in Treasuries on Friday has persisted in Europe this morning as steepeners continue to be unwound and short end yields shoot higher. German 2s10s have moved back below 200bps first the first time in a month whilst UK and US 2s10s have both crept back below 250bps for the first time in almost three weeks. The 10y Note has traded 19bps cheap to the Bund today, its worst levels relative to the European benchmark of 2009. European perhiperal Government Bonds were having a good morning until S&P downgraded Ireland, with the Bund/ 10y Irish yield spread sailing though 200bps


- I n Energy: IEA Tanaka commented the recovery in oil demand was taking place but the current price rise was happening too quickly. He noted that the OECD stocks to decline to 57 days from 63 days if OPEC maintained current production that the world needs $26.3T in new energy investment throughout 2030 ||


- Credit Crisis: S&P cuts Ireland sovereign rating by a notch to AA from AA+ and maintained a negative outlook.


*** NOTES ***

- UK political fall-out still developing

- Sovereign rating concerns resurface..in Europe this time as Ireland is cut once again by S&P


- Looking Ahead: Light data in session.

- 7:00 (BR) Brazil May FGV Inflation IGP-DI: 0.0% expected versus 0.0% prior

- 8:15 (CA) Canada May Housing Starts: 126.0K expected versus 117.6K prior

- 11:00 (HU) Hungary May Budget Balance: No estimate versus -604.1B prior

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All information provided by Trade The News (a product of Trade The News, Inc. "referred to as TTN hereafter") is for informational purposes only. Information provided is not meant as investment advice nor is it a recommendation to Buy or Sell securities. Although information is taken from sources deemed reliable, no guarantees or assurances can be made to the accuracy of any information provided. 1. Information can be inaccurate and/or incomplete 2. Information can be mistakenly re-released or be delayed, 3. Information may be incorrect, misread, misinterpreted or misunderstood 4. Human error is a business risk you are willing to assume 5. Technology can crash or be interrupted without notice 6. Trading decisions are the responsibility of traders, not those providing additional information. Trade The News is not liable (financial and/or non-financial) for any losses that may arise from any information provided by TTN. Trading securities involves a high degree of risk, and financial losses can and do occur on a regular basis and are part of the risk of trading and investing


 

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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

Wed 18 Oct
12:30 US- Housing Starts & Permits
14:30 US- EIA Crude
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01:30 AU- Employment
08:30 GB- Retail Sales
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Fri 20 Oct
12:30 CA- Retail Sales & CPI
14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales

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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue-- 08:30 GMT GB- CPI top tier confirmation of Inflation.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT DE- ZEW Survey second most important German monthly Survey.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT EZ- final HICP revision to flash report. Revisions are usually minor.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 13:15 GMT US- Industrial Production. Top output indicator.



  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 12:30 GMT US- Housing Starts and Permits revision to flash report. Useful housing leading indicator.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 14:30 GMT US- EIA Crude. Top WTI inventory measure.



  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 01:30 GMT AU- Employment. Top economic indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 02:00 GMT CN- GDP. Top economic indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Thu-- 08:30 GMT GB- Retail Sales. Top consumption indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 12:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless. Employment Indicator.



John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

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