equities: European equity markets snapped a two-day positive trend with
a downside open. Equity market risk aversion broadly followed risk
adverse EUR/USD and GBP/USD trades. For the Euro, weakness has been
attributed to risk appetite in US Treasury yields and for the Pound,
continued political uncertainty following last week's melt down in PM
Brown's cabinet have continued. Equity markets pushed to losses over
-1.00% by 3:15EST. Within the FTSE, mining names including Xstrata
[XTA.UK] Rio Tinton [RIO.UK] and Kazakahmys [KAZ.UK] led the downward
sector movement (paring last week's gains and on the back of USD
effects on commodities) along with Lloyds [LLOY.UK] as it priced its
rump offering at 38.43p/share. On continental bourses, currency
dependent and industrial names including autos and airlines led the
decline. Comments out of the IATA over the weekend predicting a -$9B
2009 loss for the airline sector added weight to Air France [AF.FR], BA
[BAY.UK] and Lufthansa [LHA.GE]. Through the first 30min of trading,
the only DAX30 listed share to trade higher was VW [VOW.GE], this
weekend saw further speculation regarding the firm, Porsche [PAH3.GE]
and financing options regarding the KfW fund and Qatar Sovereign Wealth
Fund. Continued USD strength through 3:00 and 4:00 combined with light
economic data provided little catalyst for further equity moves. As
such, the FTSE and DAX settled into a range bound around the -1.00%
mark while the CAC settled lower at -1.60%. Positive comments out of
BMW [BMW.GE] regarding future sales outlook provided a slight lift to
the German auto names past 5:15EST but equity markets as a whole
remained to the downside, all trading -1.0% by 5:30EST.
individual equities: Barclays [BARC.UK] Confirms talks have been held
with Blackrock over sale of iShares and broader asset management unit
Barclays Global Investors (BGI). Reminder: back on 9 April Company
announced sale of its iShares business to CVC Capital Partners for a
total consideration of approximately $4.4B. The transaction is
currently in "go shop" provision. Barclays may take 20% stake of BLK as
part of the sale of Barclays Global Investors fund manager unit to
Blackrock - Sunday Telegraph. || Lloyds [LLOY.UK] Seeking to place rump
placement at 38.43p/share (42% discount from Friday's close). To redeem
3.48M preference shares from UK Treasury. To redeem additional 524K
preference shares following rump placement. States that existing
investors took 87% of rights offer (9B shares, approx 53% of current
shares outstanding.) || Royal Dutch [RDSA.UK] CEO: Oil and gas cannot
meet all additional demand; Oil price will surge without new
investment, new "unconventional" energy source needed. Early signs of
stabilization in gasoline and diesel demand in US and Europe. || BA
[BAY.UK] CEO: Current downturn is the worst ever; No prospects of
tie-up with Qantas being reopened. No change in taking aircraft
deliveries. Says carriers can do nothing to stimulate traffic. Still
very positive about Iberia merger. || CON.GE: A merged Continental and
Schaeffler could be eligible for federal aid -Focus Magazine. Comments
quoted from Prime Min of Lower Saxony. || Arcandor [ARO.GE] Reportedly
German gov rejects aid request from special fund. Reminder: On May 5
-Has formally applied for â‚¬437M German State Rescue Aid Credit,
application for State guarantees is unaffected by action. || Porsche
[PAH3.GE] Reportedly continuing talks with Qatar Investment Authority
-Focus Magazine. Investment from Qatar could either be direct
investment in Porsche or in the companies options holdings in VW. Funds
could be used to complete long attempted acquisition of VW . Article
notes that decision on gov KfW â‚¬1.75B credit facility is expected this
Friday. || Deutsche Post Bank [DPB.GE] Reportedly Deutsche Bank has
raised stake to nearly 30% (25% +1 prior) -Handelsblatt. Analysts have
noted that a stake of 30% would trigger a mandatory offer for firm. ||
BMW [BMW.GE] Reports May Group Sales 109.0K units v 101.6K units m/m.
May sales -18% y/y. 5-month sales to May -21% y/y at 487.9K units. ||
IATA: Revises 2009 Global Net loss forecast to -$9.0B v -$7.4B prior,
Revenue $448B v $528B y/y. Revises 2008 Net loss estimate to -$10.4B
from -$8.5B prior. North American carriers are expected to show a loss
of $1.0B. European carriers are expected to post losses of $1.8B with
collapsing demand for premium services in all major markets served by
the region's carriers. ||
- Speakers: BOE been in
broad dialog on APF extension, to introduce secured commercial paper
facility in near future . To purchase securities from companies making
material contribution to UK economy |||Vice Fin Min Sugimoto commented
that its Government would continue proper management of JGB issues |||
Turkish Econ Min commented that further sector-wide tax cuts are
possible by June 15, 2009 when officials meet with the IMF. ||| UK City
Min commented that he was "very confident" in UK Banks were in much
stronger position |||
- In Currencies: The USD was
firmer against the European pairs and supported amid the view that the
rise in U.S. Treasury yields were due to rising risk appetite rather
than concerns about the fiscal path of the U.S as $65B worth of U.S.
Treasury auctions this week. EUR/USD tested 1.3855, off over 100 pips
from its opening levels in Asia. USD/CHF was testing 1.0970 area on
chatter that the BIS was buying USD in the session. S&P's cut Irish
sovereign rating by a notch to "AA" from "AA+" and maintained a
- The GBP was again vulnerable due to
continued uncertain political backdrop in the U.K. GBP/USD tested
1.5802, lower by 160 pips from its opening levels in Tokyo before
retracing. EUR/JPY cross was lower by 150 pips at 156.00.
The stronger USD continued to soften sentiment in both energies and
metal commodities. Spot gold trading at $947.50, off around $8/oz while
NYMEX Jul Crude oil was off $1.20 to $67.24/barrel. AUD and CAD
currencies were softer on the back of weaker commodities. USD/CAD at
1.1270 while AUD/USD at 0.7845
-In Fixed Income: The
curve flattening move which began in Treasuries on Friday has persisted
in Europe this morning as steepeners continue to be unwound and short
end yields shoot higher. German 2s10s have moved back below 200bps
first the first time in a month whilst UK and US 2s10s have both crept
back below 250bps for the first time in almost three weeks. The 10y
Note has traded 19bps cheap to the Bund today, its worst levels
relative to the European benchmark of 2009. European perhiperal
Government Bonds were having a good morning until S&P downgraded
Ireland, with the Bund/ 10y Irish yield spread sailing though 200bps
I n Energy: IEA Tanaka commented the recovery in oil demand was taking
place but the current price rise was happening too quickly. He noted
that the OECD stocks to decline to 57 days from 63 days if OPEC
maintained current production that the world needs $26.3T in new energy investment throughout 2030 ||
- Credit Crisis: S&P cuts Ireland sovereign rating by a notch to AA from AA+ and maintained a negative outlook.
*** NOTES ***
- UK political fall-out still developing
- Sovereign rating concerns resurface..in Europe this time as Ireland is cut once again by S&P
- Looking Ahead: Light data in session.
- 7:00 (BR) Brazil May FGV Inflation IGP-DI: 0.0% expected versus 0.0% prior
- 8:15 (CA) Canada May Housing Starts: 126.0K expected versus 117.6K prior
- 11:00 (HU) Hungary May Budget Balance: No estimate versus -604.1B prior
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