USD favoured.US equities suffered at the open, marking time
until the final hour when a strong finish saw the S&P500 close down only
0.1%. Signals regarding weak consumer spending from McDonald's and Apple earlier
discouraged the 'shootists'. Banks fared positively throughout, closing 2.2%
higher. Ireland was downgraded by Standard & Poor's, to AA
(negative). Fitch, on the other hand, made supportive comments. Latvia was put on negative watch due to devaluation
risk. Commodities were largely stable, apart from copper losing 0.9%. US 3mth
Libor was 2bp higher at 0.65%, interrupting a three month long slide. US 10yr
treasuries were again punished, gaining 7bp, fears of a H209 policy rate hike
mounting. Rising expectations for higher US yields continued to deter USD shorts, and the
dollar index nudged 0.2% higher.
The Ireland downgrade hurt an already heavy EUR,
which fell 2 cents to 1.38 during the London session, but it rebounded to 1.3920 during the
NY session. GBP fell by a similar magnitude to 1.5805, but recovered
strongly to be ahead for the 24 hours at 1.6070. Supportive reports included
Lloyds expecting to repay bailout funds, and Barclays supposedly planning to
sell Barclays Global Investors to Blackrock. USD/JPY did nothing,
ranging sideways between 98.20 and 98.75.
AUD fell abruptly at the London open to 0.7830, only recovering to 0.7900
NZD closed the domestic session at 0.6280, falling
to 0.6150 before a recovery to 0.6200. The AUD/NZD cross ratcheted 50 pips
higher to 1.2750.
No US data to report
Euroland Sentix investor confidence
improves from -34 to -27 in June,
reflecting stronger reads on both the current situation and expectations.
However it is worth noting that in Dec 2008, both current and expectations were
around -42; six months on, expectations have risen more than 43 pts but the
current index is down a further 9 points. It seems that the stronger stock
market, and policy-makers' response to the financial crisis are raising hopes that
things can get better, even though respondents are clearly aware the current
growth picture in Europe is dire.
German factory orders flat in April. March was revised up slightly but the annual
rate continued to plunge, from -26.5% yr to -37.1% yr. Other back revisions
were unfavourable. These numbers imply further weakness ahead for German
factory output, currently down just -20.4% yr.
Canadian housing starts up 9.2% in
May. This followed a 20% fall
in April, so the trend is still downwards. Over the past year, starts fell
The downtrend since last Wednesday is intact and
targets 0.6130 initially. Selling rallies to 0.6250 is our preferred strategy
today, ultimately looking for a move below 0.6000. While New Zealand's event calendar is bare, Australia's business conditions survey at NZT is important for AUD, and some contagion is
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Tue 17 July 2018 AA 08:30 GB- Employment A 13:15 US- Industrial Production AA 14:00 US-Powell Testimony Wed 18 July 2018 AA 08:30 GB- CPI A 12:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits AA 14:00 US-Powell Testimony Thu 19 July 2018 AA 1:30 AU- Employment AA 08:30 GB- Retail Sales A 14:30 US- EIA Crude A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless Fri 20 Jun 2018 A 12:30 CA- CPI/Retail Sales
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