Dollar slips. The S&P500 hovered around its flat open,
closing up 0.4%. The US Treasury said 10 big banks will repay about $68 billion
to the government, but the market was undecided whether that was positive (banks
in good shape) or negative (banks have less to lend) for the economy. The US
dollar index lost around 1.3%, which then helped metals - copper gaining 4.6%
and nickel 6.2%. Treasury bond supply concerns were absent at a 3yr auction,
foreign (e.g. central bank) bidders more noticeable. Of course the real test
will be the 10yr and 30yr auctions this week. The 2yr yield rallied by 10bp
while 10yrs did 2bp, in a part-reversal of the rate-hike-expectations
prevailing during the past few days.
EUR bounced from 1.3855 to 1.4100, a US investment bank's long-EUR trade recommendation
coinciding with a moderately positive tone in risk sentiment last night.
GBP rallied from around 1.6000 to 1.6360 in the
standout performance of the evening, helped by talk of inflows related to the
Barclay Global sale, improving housing data, and receding political volatility.
USD was weaker against even the yen, falling from 98.50 to 97.25.
AUD went for the ride with the other majors,
rallying from 0.7900 (London) to 0.8045 (late NY), opening in NZ at 0.8020.
NZD copied the action, gaining a cent to the
current 0.6270. AUD/NZD marched higher, from 1.2700 to 1.2800.
US wholesale inventories down 1.4%
in April. Another sharp rundown
in stocks at the start of Q2, following a downward revision to March from -1.6%
to -1.8%. No evidence at this early stage of a positive contribution to Q2 GDP
growth from inventory accumulation.
US IBD-TIPP economic optimism up from 48.6 to 50.8
in June. This first read on
consumer confidence this month shows a further modest gain, driven by all three
of the economic outlook, personal finances and federal policies.
Japan April leading composite index
rose 1.0, extending the 2.1
March rebound from prolonged sharp drop that saw it decline 9 of the 10 previous
month. The coincident composite index rose 1.0 in April, the first increase in
11 month. The April indices reflect recent hints of a bottoming out in the
sharp contraction in the manufacturing sector.
German industrial production down
1.9% in April. This weak
monthly outcome pulled annual growth down from -20.2% yr to -21.6% yr.
UK house prices update. The May RICS (surveyor) index rose to an 18
month high, with just 44.1% of respondents reporting lower house prices. The
DCLG (government) house price index improved from -13.6% yr to -13.0% yr. Both
add to the body of evidence suggesting the UK housing market may be stabilising.
UK BRC retail sales monitor very soft. May same store sales growth dropped from 4.6%
yr to -0.8% yr, confirming that April's strength was mostly Easter and hot
We have a negative NZD
bias for a 2-month outlook, having expressed that yesterday via the purchase of
a NZD put (USD call) option. The motivation for using an option was to remove
the daily noise from a medium-term structural trade. We have a target of around
0.55 in mind, but expect the path will be choppy. Today, the 0.6300 level
should cap the action,and a move to
0.6150 is our preferred scenario. Watch the terms of trade report this morning
- we think it could be much worse than the -3.8% q/q consensus.
Daily Forex Market News Forex news reports can be found on the forex research
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Tue 17 July 2018 AA 08:30 GB- Employment A 13:15 US- Industrial Production AA 14:00 US-Powell Testimony Wed 18 July 2018 AA 08:30 GB- CPI A 12:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits AA 14:00 US-Powell Testimony Thu 19 July 2018 AA 1:30 AU- Employment AA 08:30 GB- Retail Sales A 14:30 US- EIA Crude A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless Fri 20 Jun 2018 A 12:30 CA- CPI/Retail Sales
John M. Bland, MBA co-founding Partner, Global-View.com
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Veteran FX Trader, Max McKegg, forecasts all the Major currencies and the Australasians; providing Daily and Medium Term Trading forecasts to subscribers, who include large Banks the world over, as well as individual traders in more than 30 different countries.
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