Forex Blog - European Market Update: Continued 'green shoots' expectations lift equities, energy and metal markets; USD remains on the defensive ahead of weekend G8 summit
European Market Update: Continued 'green shoots' expectations lift equities, energy and metal markets; USD remains on the defensive ahead of weekend G8 summit
*** ECONOMIC DATA ***
- (CH) China May Industrial Output +8.9% y/y v +7.7%e (Unofficial) Due out on Jun 11th
- (FI) Finland Apr Industrial Production M/M: -3.5% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: -21.0% v -16.0%e
- (GE) German May Final CPI M/M: -0.1% v -0.1%e; Y/Y: 0.0% v 0.0%e
- (GE) German May Final CPI EU Harmonized M/M: -0.1% v -0.2%e; Y/Y: 0.0% v -0.1%e
- (FR) French April Industrial Production M/M: -1.4% v -0.2%e; Y/Y: -18.8% v -16.9%e
- (FR) French April Manufacturing Production M/M: -0.5% v -0.2%e; Y/Y: -19.7% v -18.1%e
- (SP) Spain May CPI M/M: 0.0% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: -0.9% v -0.8%e
- (SP) Spain May CPI EU Harmonized M/M: 0.0% v 0.0%e; Y/Y: -0.9% v -0.8%e
- (SP) Spain May CPI (Core Index) M/M:-0.1 % v 0.1%e; Y/Y: 0.9% v 1.0%e
- (TU) Turkey May Capacity Utilization: 70.4% v 68.4%e
- (DE) Danish May CPI M/M: 0.3% v -0.1% prior; Y/Y: 1.3% v 1.4% prior
- (DE) Danish May CPI EU Harmonized M/M: 0.4% v -0.1% prior; Y/Y: 1.1% v 1.1% prior
- (SW) Swedish Apr Industrial Production M/M: -2.1% v -2.8% prior; Y/Y: -21.2% v -20.5e
- (SW) Swedish Apr Industrial Orders M/M: 0.4% v 0.0% prior; Y/Y: -30.0% v -20.6% prior
- (SW) Swedish Activity Index Level: 102.4 v 97.5 prior
- (IT) Italian Apr Industrial Production M/M: 1.1% v 0.8%e; Y/Y: -24.2% v -24.4%e
- (NO) Norway May CPI M/M: 0.2% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: 3.0% v2.7%e
- (NO) Norway May Underlying CPI M/M: 0.3% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: 2.9% v2.7%e
- (NO) Norway May Producer Prices (incl oil) M/M: 6.5% v -0.6% prior; Y/Y: -2.9% v -4.7% prior
- (UK) Apr Total Trade Balance: -Â£3.0B v-Â£2.4Be; Trade Balance non EU: -Â£4.1BB v -Â£3.5Be; Visible Trade Balance: -Â£7.0B v -Â£6.4Be
- (UK) Apr Industrial Production M/M: +0.3% v -0.1%e; Y/Y: -12.3% v -12.4%e
- (UK) Apr Manufacturing Production M/M: 0.2% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: -12.7% v -12.6%e
- (IT) Italian Q1 Final GDP Q/Q: -2.6-2.4%e; Y/Y: -6.0%e
-In equities: Data, both official and rumored, out of Asia provided a strong equity lift for pan-European markets. Specifically, continued speculation that China's May industrial output will come in ahead of the +7.7% expectations, this time out of the Ming Pao daily continue to point towards signs of global economic recovery. Additional data, including strong Australian consumer confidence (with the largest m/m increase in 22-yrs) and improving Malaysian industrial production numbers underpinned a strong Asian equity trading session. This equity appetite rolled over and through the European pre-market. Disappointing French industrial production numbers were taken in-stride at 2:45EST and equity markets opened +1% across the board in Europe. Within 15min, by 3:15EST Europe's major bourses pushed above the +1.6% mark with out performance in industrial, export, automotive and basic resource names (driven by Asian data). Traders looked forward to FTSE UK Index rebalance announcements at the end of today's session and Balfour Beatty [BBY.UK] and Cobham's [COB.UK] were members of a short list trading in the red on the back of speculation they may be kicked from the index. Strong earnings out of Spanish retailer ITX [ITX.SP], operator of the Zara label provided a lift to European retailers including H&M [HMB.SW] and Next [NXT.UK] as hopes for better than expected consumer spending levels continued. Oil, holding above the $70 handle lifted the European energy complex providing a significant boost to the heavily energy dominate Russian MICEX and RTS exchanges. Continued positive industrial production data out of Italy at 4:00EST and then the UK at 4:30EST for the month of April maintained an equity rally being elevated by industrial and resource supply names. With this sector performance, the miner heavy FTSE100 and industrial heavy DAX30 slightly outperformed French and Benolux markets. Conference comments out of Siemens just past 5:00EST reiterating FY09 pretax guidance pushed German equities above the +2% mark. Moving into the NY morning, equity markets in Europe, India and South Africa remain well bid with US futures trading above 950 in the front month S&P future contract.
-In individual equities: Fiat [F.IT] US Supreme Court has allowed Chrysler asset sale to proceed. || Barclays [BARC.UK] Reportedly BlackRock is approaching deal on BGI sale for $12-14B. The figure is better than the $11-13B speculated by FT sources on Jun 5th. Deal is said to be a combination of cash and stock. || Siemens [SIE.GE] Firm reiterates its FY09 guidance targets, see total group's profits to exceed â‚¬6.6B v â‚¬6.1Be ||Lloyds [LLOY.UK] In negotiations to sell a stake in Insight Investment Management for as much as Â£300M - FT. Sale of stake reportedly to be made to team of investors including Abdallah Nauphal who is the managing director of Insight Investment Management. ||BAA [FER.SP] BAA unit reports May traffic figures, UK airports handled a total of 11.8M passengers in May (-7.3% y/y). Heathrow airport passengers -3.9% y/y, Demand conditions remain weak but are not changing materially, Outlook remains challenging. || BHP Billiton [BLT.UK] Sees metallurgical coal contract prices decreasing 58% from 2008. Note: Metallurgical coal sales made up 6.7% of BHP's total revenue in FY08. || Remy Cointreau RCO.FR: Reports FY09 Net â‚¬86.1M v â‚¬79.8Me, Op profit â‚¬137M v â‚¬138Me. To pay dividend of â‚¬1.30/shr (+50% y/y). Sees little visibility in key markets. || EADs EAD.FR: May seek to open an assembly line in India in 3-4 years - Economic Times. The plan may involve an investment of $600M. || Heidelberger Druckmaschien [HDD.GE] Exec: Sees negative cash flow from operations in 2009 -conf call. Sees losses increasing in Q1 2009 v Q4 2008. Continue to examine all refinancing operations. Expect state aid of â‚¬300M and guarantees of â‚¬550M for refinancing operations. ||ITX [ITX.SP] Reports Q1 Net â‚¬184M v â‚¬186Me, Rev â‚¬2.34B v â‚¬2.3Be. Sales at constant exchange rates +9% from May 1st to June 7th. Maintains guidance for store expansion, investment. Q1 gross margin 56.9% v 57.8% y/y. ||
- Speakers: ECB's Papademos commented that de-leveraging and weak loan demand still constraining credit supply as credit still contracting in some areas ||| ECB's Liikanen stated that countries must avoid "debt spiral" once economic situation stabilizes. He expressed more concern about longer-term economic outlook than just 1-year picture. ||| ECB's Quaden commented that one must remain 'very accommodative' in order to avoid a depression. The magnitude of financial crisis was diminishing as the collapse of international trade had likely hit its trough. Consumer and business confidence were becoming stable in many countries. He noted that a clear exit strategy was needed from accommodative policy once growth returns |||BoJ Chief Economist noted that the US economic growth might turn positive on quarterly basis in H2 of this year. The economist also observed that US long-term rate moves were thus far consistent with economic fundamentals ||| German Labor Dept stated that 2009 unemployment seen averaging 3.7M and 2010 unemployment seen at 4.5M. The agency added that the unemployment rate of increase would pick up steam in Q3 period this year. ||| Sweden's central bank, Riksbank, announced it has decided to borrow â‚¬3B from the ECB in a move made to ensure that its banking sector is well prepared to ensure financial stability ||| EU leaders draft statement calling for further regulation of the financial markets. The draft urged all parties to accelerate efforts to support economic recovery ahead of Sept G20 summit. It noted that the banking sector remained under stress and that credit flows continued to be constrained. Must remain alert to possible further measures for financial sector
- Geo-political: Russian Military reportedly has information on North Korean plans to launch a ballistic missile
- In Currencies: The USD remained vulnerable throughout the session against its European counterparts. The commodity-dollar relationship was intact as both energy and metals moved higher on continued reports that China's Industrial Production data for May would exceed the 7.7% expectations. The USD session losses accelerated on alleged comments from the French Finance ministry in which currencies rates would not likely be discussed at upcoming G8 summit this weekend in Italy. The logic was ming that no central bankers would not be attending the meeting. EUR/USD tested 1.4140 level before retracing to 1.4110 area. The Euro failed to react negatively to comments from the Swedish central bank in its activation of a currency swap line with the ECB to ensure financial stability of its banking/financial sector. In other major pairs, the GBP/USD tested back above the 1.6410 area for most of the morning. USD/CHF moving towards the 1.0700 level while USD/JPY moved higher towards the 98 neighborhood.
-In Fixed Income: With equities bid and plenty of supply hitting the market, Government bonds have been offered this morning in Europe, with a bear steepening trend to yield curves in Bunds and Treasuries. Comments from the Bank of England's Barker provided a boost to the short end of the UK yield curve. Barker noted that rates could stay low for an extended period of time in the UK, in contrast to comments made yesterday by the BoE's Tucker. Subsequently, 2y gilts rocketed by over a full point, sending yields lower by 5.5bps to session lows of 1.45%. Germany tapped â‚¬4.9B of the 2.25% 5y Bobl with results right in line with prior auctions. Ahead of the Treasury's $19B Note auction, 10y cash yields have oscillated around 3.875% in Europe, with session highs of 3.89% in the wake of the equity open
- I n Energy: Russia Deputy PM Sechin commented that the country did not in its oil output for next three years. He did note that Russia planned to organize a seminar with OPEC next month. Lastly, he stated that Russia did not need to lower oil exports || British Petroleum [BP.UK] Released its FY08 oil market statistical review. World oil reserves declined for first time in 10 years. Global proven oil reserves in 2008 at 1.258T bbl versus 1.261T bbl y/y. Global oil consumption in 2008 -420K boe/d (largest yearly decline since 1982). The report noted that no OPEC nations' oil reserves grew in 2009. Saudi Arabia's reserves, at 264.1B v 264.2B y/y. It noted that declines in Russia, Norway, China and other countries offset increases in Vietnam, India and Egypt. World has enough reserves for 42 years at current production rates ||NYMEX Jul Crude tested above $71.50/barrel during the European morning, aide the the continued rumor of a better Chinese industrial production data (Official release on jun11th).
- Credit Crisis: UK press reporting that the UK Treasury was considering sale of nationalized lender Northern Rock at some point this fall. Times article noted that options open to Treasury include re-floating the company, remutualise the lender or sell the assets to another financial firm. UK Gov't hoping to turn a profit through sale of Northern Rock to prove the success of state actions to support the financial system without overly burdening the tax payer.
*** NOTES ***
- BoJ Chief economist: US growth may turn positive Q/Q during the second half of 2009. Long term rate moves are consistent with fundamentals.
- Swedish Central bank (Riksbank} to borrow â‚¬3B from the ECB to ensure financial stability in its banking sector (e.g. Latvia situation)
- Japanese MoF: Latvia not a major issue at upcoming G8 this weekend. G8 might discuss exit strategies from unconventional measures enacted. G8 unlikely to single out rising bond yields.
- French official believes that currency rates would not be discussed at upcoming G8 summit as central bankers will not be attending
- ECB's Liikanen Concerned about longer term economic outlook
- ECB's Quaden commented that one must remain 'very accommodative' in order to avoid a depression
- Russian military says info on North Korea plans to launch ballistic missile.
- Australia Consumer Confidence rises most in 22 years at +12.7%
- Oil above $71 as China's May Industrial production Y/Y expected to beat consensus expectations of 7.7% (Data official release on Jun 11th)
- British Petroleum's oil market statistical review: World oil reserves declined for first time in 10 years. Global proven oil reserves in 2008 at 1.258T bbl
- Looking Ahead: Focus on US trade figures today; U.S. has a $19B 10-year note sale
- 7:00 (EU) ECB's Gonzales - Paramo speaks in Madrid
- 7:00 (US) MBA Mortgage Applications w/e: no expectations v -16.2% prior
- 7:00 (SA) South Africa Apr Manufacturing Production M/M: -0.3% expected v 0.1% prior, Y/Y: -18.3% expected v -11.7% prior
- 8:30 (CA) Canadian Apr International Merchandise Trade: C$1.0B expected v C$1.1B prior
- 8:30 (CA) Canadian Apr New Housing Price Index M/M: -0.3% expected v -0.5% prior
- 9:00 (BE) Belgian Q1 Final GDP Q/Q: No expectations v -1.6% prior,
- 10:00 (US) Fed's Lacker speaks in North Carolina
- 11:00 (US) Fed to conduct coupon repurchase of notes maturing between 08/15/2019 - 02/15/2026
- 12:15 (US) Fed's Duke speaks in Cleveland
- 12:30 (EU) ECB's Stark speaks in Dusseldorf, Germany
- 13:00 (US) Treasury to sell $19B in 10y Notes
- 14:00 (US) Fed's Beige Book
- 14:00 (US) Monthly Budget Statement
- G8 summit in Italy this weekend
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