With no major economic data to drive the Forex markets in
any particular direction, some investors used todayâ€™s Treasury auction and
technical factors to drive the U.S. Dollar lower. Others were more sensitive to
the rise in the commodity markets.
The Euro closed up
against the Dollar today.Despite news
debt rating was reduced because of credit and banking issues, this market
remained firm throughout the day.
traders were leveling off recent short positions because of the U.S. Treasury
auctions.Investors were concerned that
yields would rise which would increase the debt burden on the U.S.
Last week a shift in
sentiment took place which made the U.S. Dollar a more attractive
investment.The change in sentiment
occurred following the release of the better than expected U.S. Non-Farm
Payroll report.This could mean that
investors may begin to buy the Dollar and sell the Euro on the perception that
economy will recover from the recession first.Recently traders had been selling the Dollar on good news.
weekâ€™s reversal top was confirmed by follow through selling on Monday.Now it appears this market will have to
retrace the first leg down.If sellers
come in at 1.4070 to 1.4133 then take this as a sign this market is ready to
roll over to the downside.
If a top is in then
expectations are for a corrective move down to 1.3610. If the market takes out
1.4337 then 1.3804 will become a new higher bottom and the uptrend will
The USD CAD broke on Tuesday as traders took profits
following a five-day rally.The recent
strength has been triggered by chatter that the Fed may have to raise rates as
the economy begins to heat up.Todayâ€™s
weakness was triggered by speculation that the talk of a rate hike may have
been premature.In addition, traders
were hesitant to add on to positions in the face of another round of Treasury
Strength in the oil complex also drove the USD CAD
lower.Global investors are betting on
inflation and buying commodities to protect themselves.Heavy speculation by funds is helping to
support the rise in crude oil.Traders
will be watching inventory supply numbers for any sign of a drawdown.This would also be a signal that demand is
increasing as the economy recovers.
Technically, last weekâ€™s closing price reversal bottom was
confirmed on Monday by the follow-through buying.The weak close led to another sell-off on
Tuesday.The main trend remains down but
holding a correction back to 1.1040 to 1.0980 will be a sign that the buying is
greater than the selling at current levels.
Tuesday trading action took the market into this range, now
it is up to the buyers to step up and start another up move.If buyers step in, then look for a rally to
drive this market to at least 1.1413.
If this market fails to hold 1.0980 then look for a break to
the low at 1.0783.A failure to hold
this test would resume the downtrend and make 1.1290 a new main bottom.
In other Forex markets, the easing of political tensions
helped revive the rally in the GBP USD.Better economic numbers are needed however to take this market to the
Increased trader appetite for higher yielding assets helped
support the rise in the AUD USD and NZD USD.Both of these markets are coming off of weekly closing price reversal
tops which have been confirmed.The current
retracement must fail or these pairs may start to decline.
The next two days will be critical to the U.S. Dollar.Traders will be watching to see if yields
remain reasonable during the next two auctions.Any substantial spike in yields may put pressure on the Dollar as
traders will question whether the U.S. can pay its debt.Although the financial markets are indicating
the Fed is not likely to raise rates soon, this rumor may not go away as it
still may prove to be true if another economic report shows the U.S.
economy is beginning to recover.
Disclaimer: Trading foreign
exchange on the margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable
for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as
for you. Before deciding to trade foreign exchange you should carefully
consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite.
The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your
initial investment and therefore should not invest money that you cannot afford
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Mon 19 Feb 2018
00:00 CN, US- Holiday Tue 20 Feb 2018
00:00 CN- Holiday A 10:00 US- ZEW Survey Wed 21 Feb 2018
00:00 CN- Holiday A All Day flash PMIs A 15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales A 15:30 US- EIA Crude AA 19:00 US- Fed Meeting Minutes Thu 22 Feb 2018 A 09:00 DE- IFO Survey A 09:30 GB- GDP AA 13:30 CA- Retail Sales A 13:30 US- Weekly Jobless Fri 23 Feb 2018 A 10:00 EZ- Final HICP AA 13:30 CA- CPI
John M. Bland, MBA co-founding Partner, Global-View.com
Veteran FX Trader, Max McKegg, forecasts all the Major currencies and the Australasians; providing Daily and Medium Term Trading forecasts to subscribers, who include large Banks the world over, as well as individual traders in more than 30 different countries.
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