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Wednesday June 10, 2009 - 10:18:27 GMT
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Forex Market Technical and Fundamental Recap

Today's Forex Analysis summary.

 

 

With no major economic data to drive the Forex markets in any particular direction, some investors used today’s Treasury auction and technical factors to drive the U.S. Dollar lower. Others were more sensitive to the rise in the commodity markets.

                                

The Euro closed up against the Dollar today.  Despite news that Ireland’s debt rating was reduced because of credit and banking issues, this market remained firm throughout the day.

 

Fundamentally, traders were leveling off recent short positions because of the U.S. Treasury auctions.  Investors were concerned that yields would rise which would increase the debt burden on the U.S. economy. 

 

Last week a shift in sentiment took place which made the U.S. Dollar a more attractive investment.  The change in sentiment occurred following the release of the better than expected U.S. Non-Farm Payroll report.  This could mean that investors may begin to buy the Dollar and sell the Euro on the perception that the U.S. economy will recover from the recession first.  Recently traders had been selling the Dollar on good news.

 

Technically, last week’s reversal top was confirmed by follow through selling on Monday.  Now it appears this market will have to retrace the first leg down.  If sellers come in at 1.4070 to 1.4133 then take this as a sign this market is ready to roll over to the downside. 

 

If a top is in then expectations are for a corrective move down to 1.3610. If the market takes out 1.4337 then 1.3804 will become a new higher bottom and the uptrend will resume. 

 

The USD CAD broke on Tuesday as traders took profits following a five-day rally.  The recent strength has been triggered by chatter that the Fed may have to raise rates as the economy begins to heat up.  Today’s weakness was triggered by speculation that the talk of a rate hike may have been premature.  In addition, traders were hesitant to add on to positions in the face of another round of Treasury auctions.

 

Strength in the oil complex also drove the USD CAD lower.  Global investors are betting on inflation and buying commodities to protect themselves.  Heavy speculation by funds is helping to support the rise in crude oil.  Traders will be watching inventory supply numbers for any sign of a drawdown.  This would also be a signal that demand is increasing as the economy recovers.

 

Technically, last week’s closing price reversal bottom was confirmed on Monday by the follow-through buying.  The weak close led to another sell-off on Tuesday.  The main trend remains down but holding a correction back to 1.1040 to 1.0980 will be a sign that the buying is greater than the selling at current levels.

 

Tuesday trading action took the market into this range, now it is up to the buyers to step up and start another up move.  If buyers step in, then look for a rally to drive this market to at least 1.1413. 

 

If this market fails to hold 1.0980 then look for a break to the low at 1.0783.  A failure to hold this test would resume the downtrend and make 1.1290 a new main bottom.

 

In other Forex markets, the easing of political tensions helped revive the rally in the GBP USD.  Better economic numbers are needed however to take this market to the 1.6663 top.

 

Increased trader appetite for higher yielding assets helped support the rise in the AUD USD and NZD USD.  Both of these markets are coming off of weekly closing price reversal tops which have been confirmed.  The current retracement must fail or these pairs may start to decline.

 

The next two days will be critical to the U.S. Dollar.  Traders will be watching to see if yields remain reasonable during the next two auctions.  Any substantial spike in yields may put pressure on the Dollar as traders will question whether the U.S. can pay its debt.  Although the financial markets are indicating the Fed is not likely to raise rates soon, this rumor may not go away as it still may prove to be true if another economic report shows the U.S. economy is beginning to recover.

 

By ForexHound.com the portal for Analysis, Education and exclusive timely market Gann Analysis

 

Disclaimer: Trading foreign exchange on the margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

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Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue-- 08:30 GMT GB- CPI top tier confirmation of Inflation.

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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT EZ- final HICP revision to flash report. Revisions are usually minor.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 13:15 GMT US- Industrial Production. Top output indicator.



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John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

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