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Friday January 21, 2005 - 10:55:21 GMT
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FOREX: US OPEN MARKET POINTS 01-21-05

Euro and Pound Part Ways

A tale of two cities tonight in the FX markets as euro gained strength from an unexpected jump in French Consumer Spending while pound dove after UK Retail data shocked to the downside. In their worst performance since December of 1981, UK Retail sales printed –1.0% versus 0.3% expected catching the market off-guard and sending cable tumbling nearly 100 points in less than twenty minutes. Despite retailers best efforts at discounting, sales declines at clothing shops and department stores led to a slump in the overall number as UK consumers weighed down by the highest interest rates amongst the G-7 nations pared their spending. Not all the data was negative as BBA Mortgage Lending figures rose above £5 Billion for the first time since September indicating that UK Housing market remains buoyant. Although pound bears certainly have the data on their side we note the caution from BOE Governor Mervyn King who stated yesterday, “Whatever the number turns out to be, it is foolish to put much weight on any one month's figure, especially at Christmas…The true meaning of the Christmas story would not be revealed until Easter and possibly much later.”

While the pound suffered, the euro shined as French consumers opened their wallets driving spending up 0.2% against and an expected decline of –0.6%. Several government initiates by the outgoing Finance Minister Nicholas Sarkozy that lowered some tax burdens, helped to stimulate demand in December. As result the euro found buyers and recaptured the 1.3000 figure in overnight trading.

Yesterday’s poor Philly Fed data in combination with a disappointing showing from the Empire State Manufacturing survey earlier in the week, may be some early warning signs that US economic growth has peaked. If that’s true, the case of the dollar bulls - based almost solely on the expectation of continuously rising US interest rates - may be severely compromised. As we’ve stated ad nausea this week, the dollar rally is much closer to the end rather than the beginning and tonight’s price action may indicate a turn in the pair for the near term.




FX Spot Overnight

- EUR regains 3000 French data lends support
- JPY slowly churns to 103.80 although Japanese data shows recovery
- GBP crumbles below 8700 after Retail Sales contract
- CHF back below 1900 following euro strength

Upcoming Events

- 13:00GMT – (08:00 AM EST) CAD Wholesale Sales m/m Nov Expected 0.3% Previous 0.2%
- 13:00GMT – (08:00 AM EST) CAD Wholesale Inventories m/m Nov Expected --- Previous -1.1%
- 14:45GMT – (09:45 AM EST) USD. U of Michigan Confidence (Jan P) Expected 97.5 Previous 97.1

 

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Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

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Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

Wed 18 Oct
12:30 US- Housing Starts & Permits
14:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 19 Oct
01:30 AU- Employment
08:30 GB- Retail Sales
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 20 Oct
12:30 CA- Retail Sales & CPI
14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales

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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue-- 08:30 GMT GB- CPI top tier confirmation of Inflation.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT DE- ZEW Survey second most important German monthly Survey.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT EZ- final HICP revision to flash report. Revisions are usually minor.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 13:15 GMT US- Industrial Production. Top output indicator.



  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 12:30 GMT US- Housing Starts and Permits revision to flash report. Useful housing leading indicator.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 14:30 GMT US- EIA Crude. Top WTI inventory measure.



  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 01:30 GMT AU- Employment. Top economic indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 02:00 GMT CN- GDP. Top economic indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Thu-- 08:30 GMT GB- Retail Sales. Top consumption indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 12:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless. Employment Indicator.



John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

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