Forex Blog - European market Update: Euro-Zone Industrial production declines by record amount and bucks China's and India's trend in data series; USD sentiment recovers as Japan stands by its US Trea
European market Update: Euro-Zone
Industrial production declines by record amount and bucks China's and India's trend in data series; USD sentiment recovers as Japan stands by its US Treasury investment
*** ECONOMIC DATA ***
- (IN) India Apr Industrial Production Y/Y: 1.4% v -0.1%e
- (GE) German Wholesale Price Index M/M: 0.1% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: -8.9% v -9.0%e
- (FR) French Apr Current Account: -â‚¬3.1B v -â‚¬3.2B prior; Central Gov't
Balance: -â‚¬71.9B v -â‚¬ 43.7B prior
- (FR) French May CPI M/M: 0.2% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: -0.3% v -0.2%e
- (FR) French May CPI EU Harmonized M/M: 0.1% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: 0.3% v -0.2%e; CPI
Ex Tobacco Index: 118.18 v 118.14
- (HU) Hungarian Apr Final Industrial Output M/M: -5.1% v -5.1% prior; Y/Y:
-25.3% v -25.3% prior
- (HK) Q1 Industrial Production Y/Y: -10.2% v -10.6% prior; Producer Price Y/Y:
-1.4% v 3.9% prior
- (EU) Euro-zone Apr Industrial Production M/M: -1.9% v -0.4%e; Y/Y: -21.6% v
-19.8%e; Sharpest drop on record
- (IR) Irish Apr Industrial Production M/M: -5.4% v 3.0% prior; Y/Y: 3.1% v
- In equities: -In equities: Equity markets extended a two day streak of
down-side openings in Europe. Positive sentiment out of Asian equities,
including an 8-month high close on the Japanese Nikkei failed to initially
translate into Euro markets. The equity story of the morning remained focused
on a finalized agreement between Barclays [BARC.UK] and BlackRock [BLK]. Under
the terms BlackRock agreed to acquire Barclays Global Investors, including
iShares business for a 19.9% stake plus $6.6B in cash, which is an implied
value of $13.5B. The acquisition will give the new BlackRock Global Investors
AUM of over $2.7T (greater than the US Fed). On the open, shares of Barclays
traded -1.45% as the name paired some of its week long run-up gains. Equity
markets continued their indecisive nature with the FTSE100 turning positive by
3:30EST and the CAC and DAX coming off their lows. Equity leaders remained mixed,
most names trading higher on the back of analyst actions. In sector
performance, defensive healthcare names outperformed, comments out of
GlaxoSmithKline [GSK.UK] regarding emerging markets operations pushed the
sector. Markets trended above and below the unchanged mark in a tight range
through the 3:00EST and 4:00EST hr. Euro-zone industrial production at 5:00EST
broke a wave of positive economic data that had been seen out Europe,
the US and Asia
for some weeks. Coming in below expectations at -1.9% m/m, the disappointing
industrial number provided some equity weight. The DAX30, with its heavy
exposure to industrials and exporters continued its slide in negative territory
declining to -0.35%. The CAC and FTSE slowly trended lower and by had entered negative territory. Volumes
on equity bourses remained low with the FTSE -8%, the DAX -38% and the CAC
-In individual equities: GlaxoSmithkline [GSK.UK] CEO stated that the company
was planning to lower prices for many of its top medicines in emerging
markets.The plan to lower prices follows the company's successful pilot program
in the Philippines. The CEO of the company said a 60% cut in the local price of
the company's cervical cancer drug had increased sales eightfold. The WSJ
reported that company rejected Russian demands for a 15% cut in its HIV drugs.
|| Vedanta Resources [VED.UK] To launch $1B in convertible bonds (about 34% of
market cap). Bonds are expected to have a coupon of 4.50% to 5.50% payable
semi-annually in arrear and will be convertible into fully paid ordinary shares
of US$0.10 of the Company ("Ordinary Shares"). The conversion price
is expected to be set at a premium of between 35% to 45% to the volume weighted
average price of the Ordinary Shares on the London Stock Exchange between
launch and pricing. || 3i [III.UK] Announced pricing of Rump Placement at
277p/share. Received valid acceptances in respect of 523,362,379 New Ordinary
Shares, representing approximately 96.55 per cent of the total number of New
Ordinary Shares offered to Shareholders, pursuant to the 9 for 7 Rights Issue.
|| Allergy Therapeutics [AGY.UK] To raise up to Â£22.4M in share sale (approx
158% of current market cap). Azure Ventures has conditionally agreed to invest
Â£12.5M in the Company by way of a subscription for 104.2M New Ordinary Shares
at a price of 12p/shr (31% discount).|| Regal Petroleum[ RPT.UK] Announces
Proposed Placing to raise approximately $100M (approx 40% of market cap).
Details of the number of Placing Shares and the Placing Price will be announced
as soon as practicable after the close of the book-building process. || Axa
[CS.FR]: To cut 560 jobs in its UK
operations (less than 1% of workforce) - Les Echos. || BMW [BMW.GE] Reportedly
BMW brand cars added to Chinese Gov't procurement list - Chinese media.
Broadcast noted that China,
which spent CNY80B on government vehicles last year and to purchase locally
made BMW cars. The broadcast noted that Volkswagen AG's Audi cars currently
dominate government car fleets, with no specific numbers provided. ||
- Speakers: Asia Development Bank's President Kuroda commented that Asian
currencies might rise if Asia recovers before the US.
He noted that Governments should not devalue their currencies. China's
economic slowdown might have already bottomed out due to its stimulus measures.
Japan, US and
EU will likely rebound in H2 of 2010 and support Asian growth and that Asian
growth to accelerate next year on policies supporting its domestic demand.
However, he cautioned that Asia cannot rely on US
consumption for growth in longer-term. Kuroda commented that deflation was a
concern for both developed and Asian countries. ||| ECB's Liikanen commented in
a newspaper interview that 2009 would be a difficult year for global economy.
He cautioned that any recovery would be slower after such a steep economic
decline ||| BoE's Fisher commented that its Q2 GDP growth would likely be
negative and worse than that reported back for Q1. He stressed that one must
not be complacent over UK
economic outlook and would likely to see 'many bumps in road ahead'. Issues in
financial sector pose major risks to growth and that growth could be limited if
banks cannot lend. On the positive side, there were signs that UK
output contraction could be slowing and the BOE member expected to return to
positive growth over the next year or so. Inflation woul likely continue to
decline throughout 2009. Household savings increase might also hurt recovery
but the Sterling currency decline would help UK
economic rebalancing ||| German Fin Min commented that one should not weaken EU
Maastricht Stability Pact. The ministry saw 2009 Federal net borrowing in the
range of â‚¬50-60B. It forecasted 2010 gross Federal borrowing around â‚¬330B |||
- In Currencies: The USD rebounded from its lowest levels of the week against
its major European counterparts that was prompted by the comments from the
Fed's Lockhart during the NY afternoon on Thursday. Lockhart noted that the
dollar's role as a reserve currency might decline on a relative basis over time,
but USD will remain reserve currency for quite some time. The USD formed a base
during the Asian session aided by comments from Japan's
Fin Min Yosano, who commented that Japan's
faith in US Treasuries was 'unshakable'. The USD recovery continued in Europe
as the Euro-Zone April Industrial Production fall by more than expected and
suggesting that the region's contraction continued to point towards economic
weakness. EUR/USD entering the NY morning just under the 1.4030 level. G8 fin
min meet in Italy.
Dealers noting that it was already pre mentioned by both French and German
officials that currencies would not directly be a topic without central bankers
-In Fixed Income: Government bonds have put in a solid performance this morning
in Europe, emboldened by the Japanese Finance Minister's
"unshakeable" support for the USD and treasuries ahead of the G8
meeting in Italy, as well as yesterdays encouraging Long Bond auction. Yield
curves have flattened substantially in both Bunds and Treasuries whilst in the UK
a bull steepning bias still persists. The 10y Bund yield is about 8bps lower at
3.615%, the 10y Gilt yield is about 6bps lower at 3.965% whilts the yield on
the 10y note is lower by about 6bps to fall below 3.80%. ||| There was a
plethora of European sovereign announcements as Spain,
Austria and france
announced new issues for next week. Germany
saw its 2010 Federal gross borrowing at â‚¬330B while its upper house passed a
law to limit new government borrowing.
- Geopolitical: Israel's
PM Netanyahu may accept the notion of a Palestinian state based on
"certain conditions" - Washington Times ||| UN Security Council will
vote on North Korea
resolution on Friday. The 15-member body was to meet at 11:00 am (1500 GMT) for
a likely vote on a draft resolution already agreed by its five veto-wielding
permanent members -- Britain, China, France, Russia and the United States --
plus Japan and South Korea. The text calls on UN member states to slap biting
sanctions, including tougher inspections of cargo suspected of containing
banned items related to North Korea's
nuclear and ballistic missile activities, a tighter arms embargo with the
exception of light weapons and new financial restrictions. ||| According to the
US official, there are "fresh indications" that North Korea may be
preparing a nuclear test (its third such test) as satellite surveillance has
detected activity such as vehicles moving at several sites in North Korea. The US
official said he suspects that North Korea
is preparing for a number of missile tests.
*** NOTES ***
-Fed's Lockhart commented late Thursday that the Dollar's role as a reserve
currency may decline on a relative basis over time, but USD will remain reserve
currency for quite some time
-Japan Finance Min Yosano: Japan's trust in US Treasuries was
- China May IP +8.9% v 7.7%, as rumored earlier this week; India Industrial
Production Y/Y at 1.4% and above consensus expectations of -0.1%. Euro-Zone
Industrial Prod data bucks the trend and falls more than estimates. The EU
record contraction pointing to continued economic
- German Bundesrat (Upper House) passes bill to limit new government borrowing
- Looking Ahead:
- 7:30 (EU) ECB's Trichet to speak in Bulgaria
- 8:30 (US) May Import Price Index M/M: 1.4% expected v 1.6% prior, Y/Y: -17.5%
expected v -16.3% prior
- 10:00 (US) June Preliminary University of Michigan Confidence: 69.5 expected
v 68.7 prior
All information provided by Trade The News (a
product of Trade The News, Inc. "referred to as TTN hereafter") is
for informational purposes only. Information provided is not meant as investment
advice nor is it a recommendation to Buy or Sell securities. Although information is taken from sources deemed
reliable, no guarantees or assurances can be made to the accuracy of any information provided. 1. Information can be inaccurate and/or incomplete
2. Information can be mistakenly re-released or be
delayed, 3. Information may be incorrect, misread,
misinterpreted or misunderstood 4. Human error is a business risk you are
willing to assume 5. Technology can crash or be interrupted without notice 6.
Trading decisions are the responsibility of traders, not those providing
additional information. Trade The News is not liable
(financial and/or non-financial) for any losses that may arise from any information provided by TTN. Trading securities
involves a high degree of risk, and financial losses can and do occur on a
regular basis and are part of the risk of trading and investing.
Forex Trading News
Daily Forex Market News Forex news reports can be found on the forex research
headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports
provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex
market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found
Forex News Real-time forex market news reports and features providing
other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the
headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest
forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less
recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines
and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports
from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."
Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.
GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium Mon 23 Apr 2018 A All Day- Flash PMIs AA 14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales Tue 24 Apr 2018 AA 01:30 AU- CPI A 08:00 DE- IFO Survey A 14:00 US- CB Confidence A 14:00 US- New Homes Sales Wed 25 Apr 2018 AA 14:30 US- EIA Crude Thu 26 Apr 2018 AA 11:45 EZ- ECB Decision A 12:30 US- Durable Goods A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless Fri 27 Apr 2018 AA 03:00 JP- Bank of Japan A 08:00 DE- Employment A 08:30 GB- GDP A 14:00 US- University of Michigan
John M. Bland, MBA co-founding Partner, Global-View.com
Veteran FX Trader, Max McKegg, forecasts all the Major currencies and the Australasians; providing Daily and Medium Term Trading forecasts to subscribers, who include large Banks the world over, as well as individual traders in more than 30 different countries.
looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are
more critical things to consider than you might have thought.
We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View
has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've
seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.
The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.
The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.
Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by Global-View.com.
The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.
Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.
Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.
Global-View.com also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at Global-View.com. This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.
WARNING: FOREIGN EXCHANGE TRADING AND INVESTMENT IN DERIVATIVES
CAN BE VERY SPECULATIVE AND MAY RESULT IN LOSSES AS WELL AS PROFITS. FOREIGN
EXCHANGE AND DERIVATIVES TRADING IS NOT SUITABLE FOR MANY MEMBERS OF THE
PUBLIC AND ONLY RISK CAPITAL SHOULD BE APPLIED. THE WEBSITE DOES NOT TAKE
INTO ACCOUNT SPECIAL INVESTMENT GOALS, THE FINANCIAL SITUATION OR SPECIFIC
REQUIREMENTS OF INDIVIDUAL USERS. YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER YOUR FINANCIAL
SITUATION AND CONSULT YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISORS AS TO THE SUITABILITY TO YOUR
SITUATION PRIOR TO MAKING ANY INVESTMENT OR ENTERING INTO ANY TRANSACTIONS.