- In equities news overnight: Equity markets in Europe followed Asian session
weakness by opening to the downside, extending a two day negative trend.
Weekend corporate and political news generally trended in a bearish fashion.
Geopolitical stress on the Korean peninsula has intensified following new UN
Security Council resolutions and the ongoing post-electoral fallout from Iran's Presidential election continues. Dollar strength
has continued following a G-8 Fin Min meeting over the weekend that saw Russian
comments supporting the international role of the USD as a reserve currency. Paris has begun its annual air show in the midst of uncertain
economic environment. EADs [EAD.FR] executive comments that the group could
withstand cancellations of up to 1K units served to provide weight to the
sector. Mining sector names underperformed broadly as commodities came off and
speculation that Vedanata [VED.UK] would need to raise its bid for Asarco, that
name led the FTSE100 to the downside. Expectedly negative May sales results out
of Volvo [VOLVB.SW] dropped other heavy truck manufactures Daimler [DAI.GE], VW
[VOW.GE] and Man [MAN.GE]. Bourse's continued their slide through the 3:00EST
hour, breaking -1.00% mark by 3:30ET and approached -2.00% mark across the
board by 4:00EST. Equity action continued to be driven by the same themes of
USD strength, geo-political concern. Record declines in Euro-zone Q1 employment
figures, below consensus expectations, did nothing to rally markets past
5:00EST. With low volumes in corporate, data and gov supply activities, market
attention remained fixed on geo-political concerns and the on-going Korean and
-In individual equities: EAD's [EAD.FR] CEO Gallois: Will focus on small and
medium scale acquisitions; goal will be to preserve cash -Paris Air Show. Too
soon to say when demand will recover, size of recession will be best judged in
2010. CEO Airbus: Not willing to sell aircraft at steep discounts simply to
make 2009 volume goals. Remains possible that orders for 2009 could be
significantly lower than 300 number. Still focusing on securing orders for
2009. Unit could cope with cancellations of up to 1K units. Seeking to avoid
aircraft that are unsold. || Serco [SRP.UK] Has been awarded a Â£245M contract
to provide air traffic control at airports in Dubai - FT.|| Wockhardt Limited [WPL.IN] Pfizer is in advanced
talks to buy the company's biotech and veterinary units - Mint. || Ryan Air
[RYA.UK]: In talks with Boeing and Airbus regarding an order for up to 300 more
planes - Guardian. || Anglo American [AAL.UK]Some of the company's shareholders
are putting pressure on the CEO to start merger talks with Xstrata - London
Times. || Lloyds [LLOY.UK] ANZ Bank Considering bid for Lloyd's Insight
Investment Banking stake -Sunday Times. || BP [BP.UK] May be targeting Paul
Anderson as new Chairman -Sunday Telegraph. Anderson is currently a director at BHP Billiton. || Punch
Taverns [PUB.UK] Interim statement: Trading in line with prior expectations; To
raise Â£350M in share sales (88% of market cap), to make a tender offer for
Â£275M of convertible bonds. || Pernond Richard [RI.FR] Group is shopping its
Tia Maria unit -Sunday Times, article puts unit value at â‚¬200-275M. || Siemens
[SIE.GE] CEO: Does not see the end of the global recession - Times interview.
|| Tomtom [TOM2.NV] Plans to raise â‚¬430M (46% of market cap) through
combination of private placement and new rights issue - WSJ. || Holcim
[HOLN.SZ] to purchase CEMEX Australian operations for A$2.02B. || Volvo
[VOLVB.SW] Reports May Truck sales 9.5K v 9.2K (+3% m/m) -57% y/y. ||
- Speakers: ECB's Orphanides commented that uncertainty remained high and the
global crisis was worst since 1945 when World War II ended. However, the ECB
member noted that some positive signs are emerging. |||German Industry
Association commented that it did not see large credit crunch issue but did
concede that a rising liquidity shortage was a concern. |||EU's Verheugen
reiterated his view that the worst of the global crisis was not over in a
German press interview. Verheugen commented "The credit crunch remained a
problem and the longer it lasts, the more difficult it becomes for
companies,"||| German Chancellor Merkel noted that Germany had no alternative to being an export-oriented
economy. She added that a potential VAT rise after 2011 was possible to curb
excess deficits ||| Polish Fin Min forecasts 2010 GDP growth of 0.5% and a 1.0%
avg CPI for the period. ||| Philippines Central Bank Gov commented that scope
remained to further cut interest rates as the downward trend in inflation seen
to continue> he noted that the recent price rise in energy costs did not
pose a significant risk to inflation ||| ECB's Tumpel-Gugerell stated that one
cannot call an end to difficulties facing financial and key economies |||
In Currencies: The USD was firmer against its
major pairs aided by weekend comments from the G8, particularly the Russian
finance minister who noted that the G8 summit that it did not discuss the USD
or US Treasuries with Tsy Sec Geithner. Also, According to top Kremlin aide
Prikhodko, the leaders of the BRIC nations were not planning to discuss
prospects for new global reserve currencies at their summit Tuesday. Russia had been the most vocal proponent of a new reserve
currency. Also, helping the USD sentiment were comments from IMF Strauss-Kahn ,
who also noted that US dollar was not weak and market valued it correctly . The
IMF added that it did not expect many changes in Dollar currency rate. This
appeared to be a slight change of tune for the IMF on this topic. The EUR/USD
moved below the 1.39 level and dealers are taking notice of KEY support at
- The session also took plenty of note of weekend press reports on the
potential of Germany entering into a credit crunch (see out credit crisis
section below for details). The Euro was broadly weaker against the major pairs
ant hit a fresh 6-month low against the GBP cross at 0.8460. |||
In Energy: Iraq Oil Min: Oil price at $70/bbl is encouraging in
bringing investment back into industry . Noted that if global economies recover
quickly, $70/bbl will not support ongoing supply and demand balances. He
expected that price of energy was expected to continue to rise || Indian Oil
Minister commented that rising energy costs remained a 'cause of concern' for
In Fixed Income: Softness in the equity complex and a break from supply have
combined to benefit Government bonds this morning in Europe.
German , UK and US yield curves are all exhibiting a flattening bias
thanks to better buying of longer dated issues, with UK 2s10s notably moving below 250bps for the first time
in almost a month and US2s10s threatening the same level for the first time in
a week. The UK DMO announced it would look to sell up to Â£5B in a new 25 year
Gilt via syndicate tomorrow. Some major European corporate names announced
plans for debt issuance with benchmark sized offerings from the likes of
Lloyds, LaFarge and Axa all imminent. Three month euribor improved by 1 basis
point to fix at 1.26%
Credit crisis: German Liquidity crunch is increasingly threatening the survival
of companies according to German Chamber of Commerce and Industry (DIBK)
President Driftmann - London Telegraph Ambrose Evans-Pritchard |||WSJ
"Heard on the Street" noted that only 5 out of 41 European banks
would require more capital under the criteria applied to banks under the US
stress tests according to findings by Deutsche Bank. It noted that conditions
tested include 4% threshold in Tier 1 common equity to risk-weighted assets and
6% level for Tier 1 capital to risk-weighted assets. Says that under Basel II,
European institutions had higher incentive for more leverage, but also to keep
assets carrying lower risk weighting. Cites greater exposure to corporate loans
in Europe against greater use of more risky second-lien mortgage market in the
*** NOTES ***
- Euro-Zone Q1 Employment falls the most on both Q/Q and Y/Y basis since record
began in 1991
- Russian Fin Min commented after the G8 summit that it did not discuss the USD
or US Treasuries with Geithner.
- Top Kremlin aide Prikhodko, the leaders of the BRIC nations are not planning
to discuss prospects for new global reserve currencies at their summit on
- German Liquidity crunch is increasingly threatening the survival of companies
according to German Chamber of Commerce and Industry (DIBK) President Driftmann
- London Telegraph Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
- Former PBoC adviser Li Yang said he expected the global economy would need at
least 5 years to fully get over the current recession
- 8:45 (US) Fed's Tarullo speaks in North Carolina
- 9:00 (US) Treasury's Geithner speaks in New York
- 9:00 (US) Apr Net Long Term TIC Flows: $57.5Be ($55.8B prior) Total Net TIC
Flows ($23.2B prior)
- 13:00 (EU) ECB's Constancio speaks in Portuguese parliament
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Tue 17 July 2018 AA 08:30 GB- Employment A 13:15 US- Industrial Production AA 14:00 US-Powell Testimony Wed 18 July 2018 AA 08:30 GB- CPI A 12:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits AA 14:00 US-Powell Testimony Thu 19 July 2018 AA 1:30 AU- Employment AA 08:30 GB- Retail Sales A 14:30 US- EIA Crude A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless Fri 20 Jun 2018 A 12:30 CA- CPI/Retail Sales
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