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Forex Blog = European market Update: Euro-Zone Q1 Employment falls by record amount; USD firmer after Russia noted the BRIC nations were not planning to discuss prospects for new global reserve curren

Today 05:47am EST/09:47am GMT

European market Update: Euro-Zone Q1 Employment falls by record amount; USD firmer after Russia noted the BRIC nations were not planning to discuss prospects for new global reserve currencies


*** ECONOMIC DATA ***

- (CH) China May Capital Goods Price Index (CGPI) Y/Y: -7.6%

- (FR) Bank of France survey: May retail sales M/M: -1.3%

- (CZ) Czech May PPI M/M: -0.4% v -0.1%e; Y/Y: -3.8% v -3.5%e

- (CZ) Czech Apr Export Price Index Y/Y: 2.0% v 4.00% prior; Import Price Index Y/Y: -1.3% v 0.4% prior

- (CZ) Czech Apr Retail Sales Y/Y: -2.0% v -3.0%e

- (TU) Turkish Mar Unemployment Rate: 15.8% v 15.6%e

- (SZ) Swiss May Producer & Import Prices M/M: -0.3% v 0.1%e ;Y/Y: -5.0% v -4.7%e

- (DE) Danish Wholesale Prices M/M: 0.4% v 0.4% prior; Y/Y: -8.6% v-7.1% prior

- (IT) Italian Q1 Labor Costs Q/Q: 0.1% v 1.0% prior

- (NO) Norwegian May Trade Balance: NOK22.2B v NOK24.4B prior

- (EU) Euro-Zone Employment: Q/Q -0.8% v -0.3% prior, Y/Y: -1.2% v 0.0% prior; largest declines since records began in 1991



*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***

- In equities news overnight: Equity markets in Europe followed Asian session weakness by opening to the downside, extending a two day negative trend. Weekend corporate and political news generally trended in a bearish fashion. Geopolitical stress on the Korean peninsula has intensified following new UN Security Council resolutions and the ongoing post-electoral fallout from
Iran's Presidential election continues. Dollar strength has continued following a G-8 Fin Min meeting over the weekend that saw Russian comments supporting the international role of the USD as a reserve currency. Paris has begun its annual air show in the midst of uncertain economic environment. EADs [EAD.FR] executive comments that the group could withstand cancellations of up to 1K units served to provide weight to the sector. Mining sector names underperformed broadly as commodities came off and speculation that Vedanata [VED.UK] would need to raise its bid for Asarco, that name led the FTSE100 to the downside. Expectedly negative May sales results out of Volvo [VOLVB.SW] dropped other heavy truck manufactures Daimler [DAI.GE], VW [VOW.GE] and Man [MAN.GE]. Bourse's continued their slide through the 3:00EST hour, breaking -1.00% mark by 3:30ET and approached -2.00% mark across the board by 4:00EST. Equity action continued to be driven by the same themes of USD strength, geo-political concern. Record declines in Euro-zone Q1 employment figures, below consensus expectations, did nothing to rally markets past 5:00EST. With low volumes in corporate, data and gov supply activities, market attention remained fixed on geo-political concerns and the on-going Korean and Iranian situations.


-In individual equities: EAD's [EAD.FR] CEO Gallois: Will focus on small and medium scale acquisitions; goal will be to preserve cash -Paris Air Show. Too soon to say when demand will recover, size of recession will be best judged in 2010. CEO Airbus: Not willing to sell aircraft at steep discounts simply to make 2009 volume goals. Remains possible that orders for 2009 could be significantly lower than 300 number. Still focusing on securing orders for 2009. Unit could cope with cancellations of up to 1K units. Seeking to avoid aircraft that are unsold. || Serco [SRP.UK] Has been awarded a £245M contract to provide air traffic control at airports in
Dubai - FT. || Wockhardt Limited [WPL.IN] Pfizer is in advanced talks to buy the company's biotech and veterinary units - Mint. || Ryan Air [RYA.UK]: In talks with Boeing and Airbus regarding an order for up to 300 more planes - Guardian. || Anglo American [AAL.UK]Some of the company's shareholders are putting pressure on the CEO to start merger talks with Xstrata - London Times. || Lloyds [LLOY.UK] ANZ Bank Considering bid for Lloyd's Insight Investment Banking stake -Sunday Times. || BP [BP.UK] May be targeting Paul Anderson as new Chairman -Sunday Telegraph. Anderson is currently a director at BHP Billiton. || Punch Taverns [PUB.UK] Interim statement: Trading in line with prior expectations; To raise £350M in share sales (88% of market cap), to make a tender offer for £275M of convertible bonds. || Pernond Richard [RI.FR] Group is shopping its Tia Maria unit -Sunday Times, article puts unit value at €200-275M. || Siemens [SIE.GE] CEO: Does not see the end of the global recession - Times interview. || Tomtom [TOM2.NV] Plans to raise €430M (46% of market cap) through combination of private placement and new rights issue - WSJ. || Holcim [HOLN.SZ] to purchase CEMEX Australian operations for A$2.02B. || Volvo [VOLVB.SW] Reports May Truck sales 9.5K v 9.2K (+3% m/m) -57% y/y. ||


- Speakers: ECB's Orphanides commented that uncertainty remained high and the global crisis was worst since 1945 when World War II ended. However, the ECB member noted that some positive signs are emerging. |||German Industry Association commented that it did not see large credit crunch issue but did concede that a rising liquidity shortage was a concern. |||EU's Verheugen reiterated his view that the worst of the global crisis was not over in a German press interview. Verheugen commented "The credit crunch remained a problem and the longer it lasts, the more difficult it becomes for companies,"||| German Chancellor Merkel noted that
Germany had no alternative to being an export-oriented economy. She added that a potential VAT rise after 2011 was possible to curb excess deficits ||| Polish Fin Min forecasts 2010 GDP growth of 0.5% and a 1.0% avg CPI for the period. ||| Philippines Central Bank Gov commented that scope remained to further cut interest rates as the downward trend in inflation seen to continue> he noted that the recent price rise in energy costs did not pose a significant risk to inflation ||| ECB's Tumpel-Gugerell stated that one cannot call an end to difficulties facing financial and key economies |||

In Currencies: The USD was firmer against its major pairs aided by weekend comments from the G8, particularly the Russian finance minister who noted that the G8 summit that it did not discuss the USD or US Treasuries with Tsy Sec Geithner. Also, According to top Kremlin aide Prikhodko, the leaders of the BRIC nations were not planning to discuss prospects for new global reserve currencies at their summit Tuesday. Russia had been the most vocal proponent of a new reserve currency. Also, helping the USD sentiment were comments from IMF Strauss-Kahn , who also noted that US dollar was not weak and market valued it correctly . The IMF added that it did not expect many changes in Dollar currency rate. This appeared to be a slight change of tune for the IMF on this topic. The EUR/USD moved below the 1.39 level and dealers are taking notice of KEY support at 1.3800.

- The session also took plenty of note of weekend press reports on the potential of
Germany entering into a credit crunch (see out credit crisis section below for details). The Euro was broadly weaker against the major pairs ant hit a fresh 6-month low against the GBP cross at 0.8460. |||


In Energy:
Iraq Oil Min: Oil price at $70/bbl is encouraging in bringing investment back into industry . Noted that if global economies recover quickly, $70/bbl will not support ongoing supply and demand balances. He expected that price of energy was expected to continue to rise || Indian Oil Minister commented that rising energy costs remained a 'cause of concern' for its country.


In Fixed Income: Softness in the equity complex and a break from supply have combined to benefit Government bonds this morning in
Europe. German , UK and US yield curves are all exhibiting a flattening bias thanks to better buying of longer dated issues, with UK 2s10s notably moving below 250bps for the first time in almost a month and US2s10s threatening the same level for the first time in a week. The UK DMO announced it would look to sell up to £5B in a new 25 year Gilt via syndicate tomorrow. Some major European corporate names announced plans for debt issuance with benchmark sized offerings from the likes of Lloyds, LaFarge and Axa all imminent. Three month euribor improved by 1 basis point to fix at 1.26%

Credit crisis: German Liquidity crunch is increasingly threatening the survival of companies according to German Chamber of Commerce and Industry (DIBK) President Driftmann - London Telegraph Ambrose Evans-Pritchard |||WSJ "Heard on the Street" noted that only 5 out of 41 European banks would require more capital under the criteria applied to banks under the US stress tests according to findings by Deutsche Bank. It noted that conditions tested include 4% threshold in Tier 1 common equity to risk-weighted assets and 6% level for Tier 1 capital to risk-weighted assets. Says that under Basel II, European institutions had higher incentive for more leverage, but also to keep assets carrying lower risk weighting. Cites greater exposure to corporate loans in Europe against greater use of more risky second-lien mortgage market in the US

*** NOTES ***

- Euro-Zone Q1 Employment falls the most on both Q/Q and Y/Y basis since record began in 1991

- Russian Fin Min commented after the G8 summit that it did not discuss the USD or US Treasuries with Geithner.

- Top Kremlin aide Prikhodko, the leaders of the BRIC nations are not planning to discuss prospects for new global reserve currencies at their summit on Tuesday.

- German Liquidity crunch is increasingly threatening the survival of companies according to German Chamber of Commerce and Industry (DIBK) President Driftmann - London Telegraph Ambrose Evans-Pritchard

- Former PBoC adviser Li Yang said he expected the global economy would need at least 5 years to fully get over the current recession


- Looking Ahead:

- 7:00 (GE) ECB's Weber attends meeting in Berlin

- 8:30 (CA) Canadian Apr Manufacturing Shipments M/M: -1.7%e (-2.7% prior)

- 8:30 (CA) Canadian Apr New Motor Vehicle Sales M/M: 0.0%e (6.3% prior)

- 8:30 (US) Jun Empire Manufacturing : -4.60e ( -4.55 prior)

- 8:45 (US) Fed's Tarullo speaks in North Carolina

- 9:00 (US) Treasury's Geithner speaks in New York

- 9:00 (US) Apr Net Long Term TIC Flows: $57.5Be ($55.8B prior) Total Net TIC Flows ($23.2B prior)

- 13:00 (EU) ECB's Constancio speaks in Portuguese parliament

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