- A big disappointment in the June Empire Manufacturing index spooked investors
before the open this morning, as the survey of manufacturing conditions in the
North East indicated much steeper declines than expected instead of another
sign of moderation. Major US
indices opened slightly to the downside and have headed steadily downwards in
mid morning trading. With things looking shaky, mid-morning comments from Fed
Governor Evans that there is a risk US
unemployment could get close to 10% added to the downward momentum. The ECB's
Papademos, Meredith Whitney, and NYU's Nouriel Roubini have added to the steady
chorus of cautious commentary as well. Equity weakness and the stronger dollar
have pushed front-month crude to session lows below $70. Bond markets are bid
up after TICS data that showed foreign countries have yet moved to
substantially cut US Treasury holdings. The US
10-year yield is back below 3.75% while the benchmark spread has narrowed back
below 250 basis points.
- Treasury Secretary Geithner and White House advisor Larry Summers filled in
more details on the Obama Administration's proposals to regulate derivatives
and securitized products in this morning's Washington Post. According to the
piece, the administration will propose that all derivatives contracts and
dealers be regulated and require originators to retain interests in
asset-backed securities. Systemically important firms will face
"stringent" supervision by Federal Reserve and a new Council of
Regulators with broader responsibility across the system. President Obama is
scheduled to announce a major overhaul of financial sector regulations on
- Bank of America
and Morgan Stanley are notable laggards this morning, with both down 2.5% or so
in early trading. Overnight Rochdale's Dick Bove said
BoA would suffer "horrific" loan losses, while the bank's May Master
Trust data showed net charge offs jumping to 12.50%, versus 10.47% in April. Capital
One's May Master Trust charge offs rose nearly 1% over April levels. Master
Trust data from the other leading credit card issuers is expected throughout
- Illinois Tool Works revised its Q2 earnings guidance slightly upwards and
reaffirms its revenue growth target after deciding to keep a business segment
that had been slated for divestiture.. Shares of the company are off nearly 3%,
weighing down competitors Snap-On, Stanley Works and Black & Decker as
well. Small semi manufacturer O2Micro joined the competition in raising
guidance, citing increased demand for LCD TVs. Shares of OIIM rose 10% in the
pre-market and have sustained gains in early trading. Struggling retailer
Limited Brands reduced the lower end of its 2009 earnings range and predicted
same-store sales would down 5% to 10% for the year. Note also that Canaccord
Adams has soured on all the smartphone exuberance, downgrading AAPL, NOK and
RIMM this morning.
- In currencies, the greenback has firmed up on weekend comments out of Russia
to the effect that there were no plans to discuss the reserve currency issue at
tomorrow's meeting of BRIC nations (Brazil,
Note also that French President Sarkozy said the G20 would have to address the
currency issue at some point. IMF's Lipsky commented that the USD would remain
the world's reserve currency for the foreseeable future. European currencies
were hampered by continued concern regarding the Continent's banking sector.
EUR/USD remains in the lower quarter of its session range throughout the NY
morning. Dealers are discussing the technical importance of 1.3800 in the pair,
with chatter circulating of euro sell stops building up below 1.3800 down
through the 1.3720 area.
- Not all the news was rosy for dollars, however. The April TIC data showed
global demand for US financial assets, with China,
trimming treasury holdings in a shift that may reinforce
concerns that demand for American debt will wane amid record deficits and the
decline of the dollar's reserve status. Risk aversion helped the JPY firm
against the majors, with EUR/JPY off 200 pips at 135.50, while GBP/JPY was
lower by 150 pips to test below the 160 handle during the New
York session. CAD and AUD were softer as the stronger
USD weighed upon most energy and metal markets. Additional weight hit USD/CAD,
sending the cross below the 1.13 level after the Bank of Canada said
significant stresses remain in financial markets and that risks to household
balance sheets have increased since December. AUD/USD is moving back below the
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Mon 23 July 2018 A 14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales Tue 24 July 2018 AFlash PMIs Wed 25 July 2018 A 08:00 DE- IFO Survey A 14:00 US- New Homes Sales A 14:30 US- EIA Crude Thu 26 July 2018 AA 11:45 EZ- European Central Bank Decision A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless A 12:30 US- Durable Goods Fri 27 July 2018 AA 12:30 US- GDP A 14:00 US- Final University of Michigan
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