- In equities news overnight: European equity markets snapped a 3-session
negative open trend in this morning's sessions. Following a lower Asian equity
trading session on the back of a stronger JPY negatively affecting Nikkei
listed exporters and rollover financial weakness from the NY session. European
futures trading initially pointed towards a lower open but as comments leaked,
and then were confirmed out of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization encouraged
USD weakness, futures and bonds turned direction. Comments from Russian PM
Putin that reserve currency, trade settlement and swap currency conversations
would be raised at SCO meeting rallied the EUR, GBP and JPY in its USD pair.
This translated into a equity rise of approx 0.20% across European bourses.
Initial sector performance saw real estate and property management names such
as Hammerson [HMSO.UK] trading higher following a positive JP Morgan note on
revised contracts and sector performance. A strong trading statement out of
Tesco [TSCO.UK] lifted the retail and grocer names in the UK,
France and Germany.
Lower than expected Swiss industrial production at 3:15EST accelerated an
equities retracement and bourses fell from their +.50% levels into negative
territory by 3:30EST. Equity markets bounced above and below the unchanged mark
through 4:00EST. Stronger than expected UK May CPI and RPI at 4:30EST halted a
market slide. The sessions key data point, German and EU ZEW survey's for June
beat expectations and provided a further equity lift. ZEW comments that slump
was near its bottom and that results provide a positive signal for future
results pushed the CAC and DAX out of negative territory. At this time, the
FTSE printed new session highs as financial and food retailers recovered their
earlier gains. Volumes on exchanges remained light averaging 20% below
-In individual equities: Tesco [TSCO.UK ] Provided Interim Trading Statement:
Q1 UK Like-for-Like Sales 4.3% in line with
analyst estimates. Group Sales +12.6% y/y, International sales were higher by
20.1% y/y. || Whitbread [WTB.UK] Provided Q1 interim statement with revenues up
2.5% y/y but its like-for-like sales down 2.7% y/y. || Punch Taverns [PUB.UK]
Announced Convertible Bond Tender for Â£275M in bonds due 2010. || EAD [EAD.FR]
Qatar Airways signed $1.9B order for 24 A320 aircraft. || Thales [HO.FR]
Australian unit was awarded contract for 14 Bushmasters from the Netherlands.
|| Deutsche Bank [DBK.GE] Deutsche Post seeking to cut stake held in firm by
Deutsche Bank to 0 in the course of the next few weeks. DPW provides no comment
on who might purchase stake currently held by DBK. || Fraport [FRA.GE] Reported
May traffic Passenger numbers 4.4M v 4.3M m/m, Aircraft movements 40.7K v 38.4K
m/m, Airfreight tons 146.3K v 135K m/m, Airmail tons: 6.6K v 6.5K m/m. || E.On
[EOAN.GE] Firm might cut 6K European based jobs, shift 3K to outside contractors
(approx 9.6% of workforce) -Die Welt. Article noted that job cuts would be part
of â‚¬1.5B cost savings initiatives. || Anheuser-Busch InBev [ABI.BE] Possible
suitors for the company's assets in Central Europe
included KKR, TPG and CVC Capital - FT.|| TNT [TNT.NV] Purchased stake in
regional mail units of Von Holtzbrinck Publishing Group. || (UK)
is working on a plan to use Northern Rock's own funds to buy back debt from the
bank's bondholders - London Times. The move could release billions of pounds of
capital for the lender. Northern Rock has about Â£2B in subordinated debt,
Granite (the bank's off-balance sheet funding program) has about Â£30B in
outstanding loans and the bank owes about Â£9B through its covered bonds
- Speakers: Russian President Medvedev to raise reserve currency issue at
today's BRIC meeting according to a Kremlin economic aide. The official noted
that the summit would discuss trade settlements in local currencies such as
Russian Ruble, Chinese Yuan, commodity currencies, and the precious metal of
gold. Noted that the IMF Special Drawing Rights (SDR) basket needs to be
expanded. The summit would also address reserve investments and FX swap
agreements as the global economy did not need 'currency turbulence'. The
official noted that a cautious approach would be needed for a world reserve
currency. The aide also noted that 2010 was too early for free float of Russian
Ruble currency and the decision depends would depend on an economic recovery
||| Russian President Medvedev commented that the global economy cannot rely on
single reserve currency and needs new reserve currencies ||| German DIHK
Business Survey cuts Germany's 2009 GDP view to -6.0% v -3.0% prior. It saw
exports dropping by 19.0% and imports falling by 10.0% y/y. It noted that the
industrial sector expectations were better than current conditions and added
that the sector might have hit 'rock bottom' but a bumpy recovery was likely.
|||NYU Economist Nouriel Roubini commented in a German newspaper interview that
he believes ECB was 'underestimates' the economic crisis and added that the
crisis was more severe in Europe than in US. Roubini
noted that he was "more skeptical than most" on economic recovery
prospects. Fed has acted more aggressively to counter economic crisis ||| Japan's
Fin Min Yosano reiterated his support for the USD. Remains convinced USD would
remain key reserve currency and saw US maintaining a strong dollar policy. ||
BoJ Gov Shirakawa commented that exiting temporary steps depend on market and
economic conditions. He noted that central banks agreed that maintaining
stimulus measures too long would distort markets. Japan
bond yield rise reflected market hopes of hitting an economic bottom. The BOJ
noted that both Commercial Paper and corporate bond issuances have improved
significantly . He urged caution of economy, price downside risks for a while.
The BOJ would watch the July Tankan survey to better assess the economic
- In Currencies: The EUR/USD tested the key 1.3740/50 level in Asia and moved
firmly back over the 1.38 pivot level following a Kremlin economic aide comment
that Russian President Medvedev would again raise the reserve currency issue at
today's BRIC meeting. Overall sentiment on FX trading seemed to believe that
range trading would prevail rather then new seeing any new price trends
develop. Lower volatility was also painting a similar picture. The EUR/USD
tested the 1.3880 level during the European morning on the back of the Russian
comment. Today's Russian comments contrast those of the Russian Finance
Minister Kudrin following the weekend G8 summit in Italy.
Dealers debated as to which comments are more important those of Medvedev (a
politician) or Kudrin (fin min). The German ZEW data beat expectations giving
the Euro further upside momentum in the session as EUR/USD tested 1.3920. The
hard economic data painted a different picture for the Euro-Zone, but remained
ignored for the time being. The German DIHK Business Survey cuts its Germany's
2009 GDP view to -6.0% v -3.0% prior while the French budget minister stated
that the 2009 deficit to GDP ratio could hit the at 6% level, which is
well-above the Maastrict Stability Pact term of 3%. Dutch 2010 Budget deficit
forecasted at 6.7% according to its Gov't Agency CPB. As the day moves into the
NY session, trading was likely to be choppy as "headline roulette"
would provide numerous conflicting comments out of the BRIC summit and key US
- The JPY was initially firmer during the European morning. Dealers too keen
interest in the observation that Japans public pension fund (worlds largest)
commented that it might sell JGBs to cover payments noting this could signal
the "beginning of the end" for Japan
as capital exporter. Thus Japan
seen keeping more of its money at home. USD/JPY tested 96.10 and EUR/JPY
declined to 132.70 before climbing back into positive territory for the
- The GBP maintained a form tone against the major pairs, aided by its higher
CPI and RPI inflation data, with both series exceeding expectations. GBP/USD
moved back above the 1.6450 level while it continued to advanced against the
Euro as the cross tested 0.8440 in the session for fresh six-month lows.
- In Energy: Russia
Gazprom [GAZP.RU] Guided 2010 gas output at 507 BCM compared to 550BCM seen in
2008. Company expected its output to remain depressed until through 2012 as it
guided510 bcm in 2011 and 523 bcm in 2012. ||| WSJ reported that Lukoil
[LKOH.RU] Executives to visit Iraq
to discuss Saddam era business deals. Article stated that no new deals were
expected at meeting, but seen as opening discussions regarding operations ||
China might adjust its domestic fuel prices at the end of June, if the
international crude oil price is at more than $70/bbl according to Chinese
- In Fixed Income Supply: Government Bonds have experienced a wild ride this
morning in Europe, swinging back and forth between gains and losses as the
session wore on. Gilts were aggressively offered following stronger than expected
UK CPI and RPI data, dragging Bunds and Treasuries down along the way. The
negative sentiment for bonds was further exacerbated by stronger than expected
Eurozone CPI numbers as well as the strongest reading in the German ZEW Survey
of Economic Sentiment since May of 2006, but healthy bidding returned to Gilts
and Bunds following an encouraging sale of â‚¬1B in 3 and 7year Irish supply.
Treasuries are weaker across the curve with the expectation of the Long Bond,
which has posted some decent gains in overnight trade. At the time of writing
the Long Bond yields 4.549%, down 1.2bps on the session, with futures T-Bond 2
ticks in the black at 115-06
- Credit crisis: WSJ: IMF recommended that Swedish banks increase their capital
bases to protect against further spillover from economic turmoil in the Baltics
Feature notes that the IMF concerns contrast Swedish Financial Supervisory
Authority, who last week said that local stress tests proved domestic banks
were adequately capitalized ||| Moody's reported that the global financial
crisis continues, the availability of reliable external funding continues to be
a question mark for many corporate issuers in Europe, the Middle East and
Africa (EMEA). Moody's noted that liquidity remained fragile for the EMEA corporates
despite significant bonds issuance to date. The report saw the next 12 months''
total debt maturities are estimated to be around $615B. Moody''s expected that
around 14% of investment-grade issuers and 20% of speculative-grade issuers
will not have sufficient internal and external committed liquidity sources to
cover their next 12 months'' cash outflows, including but not limited to debt
*** NOTES *** Big data day today UK,
- German ZEW data exceeds expectations; UK
inflation above estimates
- Russian President reiterates his call for a new global reserve currency ahead
of the BRIC summit. A comment contradicts its Finance Minister from the weekend
G8. Dealers ponder if Medvedev (politician) comments as less important than
Kudrin (fin min) or even those of the Russian Central bank.
Iran gets ugly.
- BoJ unanimously leaves interest rates unchanged at 0.10%. It upgraded its
assessment of the Japanese economy as it begun to stop worsening. It did hint
caution that economic risks remain high.
- Japans public pension fund, the worlds largest might sell JGBs to cover
payments. Dealers were noting that this could mark the beginning of the end for
- Iran might recount votes in disputed election
- Key pivotal levels remain in view among with 1.40 in EUR/USD, $70 crude and
4.00% in the 10-year note
***Looking Ahead: ***
- 8:00 (BR) Brazil April Retail Sales M/M: -0.1%e versus 0.3% prior; Y/Y:6.5%e
versus 1.8% prior
- 8:30 (CA) Canadian Q1 Labor Productivity Q/Q: -0.4%e versus -0.5% prior
- 8:30 (US) May PPI M/M: 0.6%e (0.3% prior) Y/Y: -4.4%e versus -3.7% prior
- 8:30 (US) May PPI Ex Food & Energy M/M: 0.1%e versus 0.1% prior; Y/Y:
3.2%e versus 3.4% prior
- 8:30 (US) May Housing Starts: 485Ke versus 458K prior; Building Permits:
508Ke versus 498k prior
- 9:15 (US) May Industrial Production: -1.0%e versus -0.5% prior; Capacity
Utilization: 68.4%e versus 69.1% prior
- 12:00 (TU) Turkey Central bank Base Rate Decision. A 25bps cut to 9.00% is
- Brazil, Russia,
India & China (BRIC) Summit
commences in Russia
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Tue 17 July 2018 AA 08:30 GB- Employment A 13:15 US- Industrial Production AA 14:00 US-Powell Testimony Wed 18 July 2018 AA 08:30 GB- CPI A 12:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits AA 14:00 US-Powell Testimony Thu 19 July 2018 AA 1:30 AU- Employment AA 08:30 GB- Retail Sales A 14:30 US- EIA Crude A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless Fri 20 Jun 2018 A 12:30 CA- CPI/Retail Sales
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