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Forex Blog - European Market Update: German ZEW Economic Sentiment registers highest reading since May 2006; Russian President to bring up reserve currency issue at BRIC summit today

Today 05:53am EST/09:53am GMT

European Market Update: German ZEW Economic Sentiment registers highest reading since May 2006; Russian President to bring up reserve currency issue at BRIC summit today

*** ECONOMIC DATA ***

- (EU) EU 25 New Car Registrations: -4.4% v -11.9% prior

- (SP) Spain Apr House Transactions Y/Y: -47.6% v -24.3% prior

- (TU) Turkish May Consumer Confidence: 83.3 v 80.8 prior

- (SZ) Swiss Q1 Industrial Production Q/Q: -13.1% v -11.8%e; Y/Y: -9.5% v -10.0%e

- (NV) Netherlands Apr Trade Balance: €2.4B v €2.5B prior

- (NV) Netherlands Retail Sales Y/Y: -6.0% v -6.0% prior

- (SW) Swedish May Average House Prices: SEK1.87M v SEK1.77M prior

- (IT) Italian May Final CPI M/M: 0.2% v 0.2%e ; Y/Y: 0.9% v 0.9%e

- (IT) Italian CPI - EU Harmonized M/M: 0.2% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: 0.8% v 0.8%e

- (HK) Hong Kong May Unemployment Rate: 5.3% v 5.4%e

- (UK) May CPI M/M: 0.6% v 0.3%e; Y/Y: 2.2% v 2.0%e; CPI Core Y/Y: 1.6% v 1.5%e

- (UK) May RPI M/M: 0.6% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: -1.1% v -1.5%e; RPI Ext Mortgages Y/Y: 1.6% v 1.3%e; Retail Price Index: 212.8 v 212.0e;

- (EU) Euro-zone CPI M/M: 0.1% v 0.0%e; Y/Y: 0.0% v 0.0%e; Core Y/Y: 1.5% v 1.6%e

- (GE) German June ZEW Survey- Econ Sentiment: 44.8 v 35.0e; Current Situation: -89.7 v -92.6e

- (EU) Euro-zone June ZEW Survey: 42.7 v 34.0e

- 5:00 (EU) Euro-zone Q1 Labor Costs Y/Y: 3.7% v 3.0%e



*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***

- In equities news overnight: European equity markets snapped a 3-session negative open trend in this morning's sessions. Following a lower Asian equity trading session on the back of a stronger JPY negatively affecting Nikkei listed exporters and rollover financial weakness from the NY session. European futures trading initially pointed towards a lower open but as comments leaked, and then were confirmed out of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization encouraged USD weakness, futures and bonds turned direction. Comments from Russian PM Putin that reserve currency, trade settlement and swap currency conversations would be raised at SCO meeting rallied the EUR, GBP and JPY in its USD pair. This translated into a equity rise of approx 0.20% across European bourses. Initial sector performance saw real estate and property management names such as Hammerson [HMSO.UK] trading higher following a positive JP Morgan note on revised contracts and sector performance. A strong trading statement out of Tesco [TSCO.UK] lifted the retail and grocer names in the UK, France and Germany. Lower than expected Swiss industrial production at 3:15EST accelerated an equities retracement and bourses fell from their +.50% levels into negative territory by 3:30EST. Equity markets bounced above and below the unchanged mark through 4:00EST. Stronger than expected UK May CPI and RPI at 4:30EST halted a market slide. The sessions key data point, German and EU ZEW survey's for June beat expectations and provided a further equity lift. ZEW comments that slump was near its bottom and that results provide a positive signal for future results pushed the CAC and DAX out of negative territory. At this time, the FTSE printed new session highs as financial and food retailers recovered their earlier gains. Volumes on exchanges remained light averaging 20% below 30-session levels.


-In individual equities: Tesco [TSCO.UK ] Provided Interim Trading Statement: Q1 UK Like-for-Like Sales 4.3% in line with analyst estimates. Group Sales +12.6% y/y, International sales were higher by 20.1% y/y. || Whitbread [WTB.UK] Provided Q1 interim statement with revenues up 2.5% y/y but its like-for-like sales down 2.7% y/y. || Punch Taverns [PUB.UK] Announced Convertible Bond Tender for £275M in bonds due 2010. || EAD [EAD.FR] Qatar Airways signed $1.9B order for 24 A320 aircraft. || Thales [HO.FR] Australian unit was awarded contract for 14 Bushmasters from the Netherlands. || Deutsche Bank [DBK.GE] Deutsche Post seeking to cut stake held in firm by Deutsche Bank to 0 in the course of the next few weeks. DPW provides no comment on who might purchase stake currently held by DBK. || Fraport [FRA.GE] Reported May traffic Passenger numbers 4.4M v 4.3M m/m, Aircraft movements 40.7K v 38.4K m/m, Airfreight tons 146.3K v 135K m/m, Airmail tons: 6.6K v 6.5K m/m. || E.On [EOAN.GE] Firm might cut 6K European based jobs, shift 3K to outside contractors (approx 9.6% of workforce) -Die Welt. Article noted that job cuts would be part of €1.5B cost savings initiatives. || Anheuser-Busch InBev [ABI.BE] Possible suitors for the company's assets in Central Europe included KKR, TPG and CVC Capital - FT. || TNT [TNT.NV] Purchased stake in regional mail units of Von Holtzbrinck Publishing Group. || (UK) UK government is working on a plan to use Northern Rock's own funds to buy back debt from the bank's bondholders - London Times. The move could release billions of pounds of capital for the lender. Northern Rock has about £2B in subordinated debt, Granite (the bank's off-balance sheet funding program) has about £30B in outstanding loans and the bank owes about £9B through its covered bonds program. ||


- Speakers: Russian President Medvedev to raise reserve currency issue at today's BRIC meeting according to a Kremlin economic aide. The official noted that the summit would discuss trade settlements in local currencies such as Russian Ruble, Chinese Yuan, commodity currencies, and the precious metal of gold. Noted that the IMF Special Drawing Rights (SDR) basket needs to be expanded. The summit would also address reserve investments and FX swap agreements as the global economy did not need 'currency turbulence'. The official noted that a cautious approach would be needed for a world reserve currency. The aide also noted that 2010 was too early for free float of Russian Ruble currency and the decision depends would depend on an economic recovery ||| Russian President Medvedev commented that the global economy cannot rely on single reserve currency and needs new reserve currencies ||| German DIHK Business Survey cuts Germany's 2009 GDP view to -6.0% v -3.0% prior. It saw exports dropping by 19.0% and imports falling by 10.0% y/y. It noted that the industrial sector expectations were better than current conditions and added that the sector might have hit 'rock bottom' but a bumpy recovery was likely. |||NYU Economist Nouriel Roubini commented in a German newspaper interview that he believes ECB was 'underestimates' the economic crisis and added that the crisis was more severe in Europe than in US. Roubini noted that he was "more skeptical than most" on economic recovery prospects. Fed has acted more aggressively to counter economic crisis ||| Japan's Fin Min Yosano reiterated his support for the USD. Remains convinced USD would remain key reserve currency and saw US maintaining a strong dollar policy. || BoJ Gov Shirakawa commented that exiting temporary steps depend on market and economic conditions. He noted that central banks agreed that maintaining stimulus measures too long would distort markets. Japan bond yield rise reflected market hopes of hitting an economic bottom. The BOJ noted that both Commercial Paper and corporate bond issuances have improved significantly . He urged caution of economy, price downside risks for a while. The BOJ would watch the July Tankan survey to better assess the economic conditions


- In Currencies: The EUR/USD tested the key 1.3740/50 level in Asia and moved firmly back over the 1.38 pivot level following a Kremlin economic aide comment that Russian President Medvedev would again raise the reserve currency issue at today's BRIC meeting. Overall sentiment on FX trading seemed to believe that range trading would prevail rather then new seeing any new price trends develop. Lower volatility was also painting a similar picture. The EUR/USD tested the 1.3880 level during the European morning on the back of the Russian comment. Today's Russian comments contrast those of the Russian Finance Minister Kudrin following the weekend G8 summit in Italy. Dealers debated as to which comments are more important those of Medvedev (a politician) or Kudrin (fin min). The German ZEW data beat expectations giving the Euro further upside momentum in the session as EUR/USD tested 1.3920. The hard economic data painted a different picture for the Euro-Zone, but remained ignored for the time being. The German DIHK Business Survey cuts its Germany's 2009 GDP view to -6.0% v -3.0% prior while the French budget minister stated that the 2009 deficit to GDP ratio could hit the at 6% level, which is well-above the Maastrict Stability Pact term of 3%. Dutch 2010 Budget deficit forecasted at 6.7% according to its Gov't Agency CPB. As the day moves into the NY session, trading was likely to be choppy as "headline roulette" would provide numerous conflicting comments out of the BRIC summit and key US economic releases.

- The JPY was initially firmer during the European morning. Dealers too keen interest in the observation that Japans public pension fund (worlds largest) commented that it might sell JGBs to cover payments noting this could signal the "beginning of the end" for Japan as capital exporter. Thus Japan seen keeping more of its money at home. USD/JPY tested 96.10 and EUR/JPY declined to 132.70 before climbing back into positive territory for the session.

- The GBP maintained a form tone against the major pairs, aided by its higher CPI and RPI inflation data, with both series exceeding expectations. GBP/USD moved back above the 1.6450 level while it continued to advanced against the Euro as the cross tested 0.8440 in the session for fresh six-month lows.


- In Energy: Russia Gazprom [GAZP.RU] Guided 2010 gas output at 507 BCM compared to 550BCM seen in 2008. Company expected its output to remain depressed until through 2012 as it guided510 bcm in 2011 and 523 bcm in 2012. ||| WSJ reported that Lukoil [LKOH.RU] Executives to visit Iraq to discuss Saddam era business deals. Article stated that no new deals were expected at meeting, but seen as opening discussions regarding operations || China might adjust its domestic fuel prices at the end of June, if the international crude oil price is at more than $70/bbl according to Chinese press |||


- In Fixed Income Supply: Government Bonds have experienced a wild ride this morning in Europe, swinging back and forth between gains and losses as the session wore on. Gilts were aggressively offered following stronger than expected UK CPI and RPI data, dragging Bunds and Treasuries down along the way. The negative sentiment for bonds was further exacerbated by stronger than expected Eurozone CPI numbers as well as the strongest reading in the German ZEW Survey of Economic Sentiment since May of 2006, but healthy bidding returned to Gilts and Bunds following an encouraging sale of €1B in 3 and 7year Irish supply. Treasuries are weaker across the curve with the expectation of the Long Bond, which has posted some decent gains in overnight trade. At the time of writing the Long Bond yields 4.549%, down 1.2bps on the session, with futures T-Bond 2 ticks in the black at 115-06


- Credit crisis: WSJ: IMF recommended that Swedish banks increase their capital bases to protect against further spillover from economic turmoil in the Baltics Feature notes that the IMF concerns contrast Swedish Financial Supervisory Authority, who last week said that local stress tests proved domestic banks were adequately capitalized ||| Moody's reported that the global financial crisis continues, the availability of reliable external funding continues to be a question mark for many corporate issuers in Europe, the Middle East and Africa (EMEA). Moody's noted that liquidity remained fragile for the EMEA corporates despite significant bonds issuance to date. The report saw the next 12 months'' total debt maturities are estimated to be around $615B. Moody''s expected that around 14% of investment-grade issuers and 20% of speculative-grade issuers will not have sufficient internal and external committed liquidity sources to cover their next 12 months'' cash outflows, including but not limited to debt maturities.



*** NOTES *** Big data day today UK, EU, US.

- German ZEW data exceeds expectations; UK inflation above estimates

- Russian President reiterates his call for a new global reserve currency ahead of the BRIC summit. A comment contradicts its Finance Minister from the weekend G8. Dealers ponder if Medvedev (politician) comments as less important than Kudrin (fin min) or even those of the Russian Central bank.

Iran gets ugly.

- BoJ unanimously leaves interest rates unchanged at 0.10%. It upgraded its assessment of the Japanese economy as it begun to stop worsening. It did hint caution that economic risks remain high.

- Japans public pension fund, the worlds largest might sell JGBs to cover payments. Dealers were noting that this could mark the beginning of the end for Japan as capital exporter.

- Iran might recount votes in disputed election

- Key pivotal levels remain in view among with 1.40 in EUR/USD, $70 crude and 4.00% in the 10-year note

***Looking Ahead: ***

- 8:00 (BR) Brazil April Retail Sales M/M: -0.1%e versus 0.3% prior; Y/Y:6.5%e versus 1.8% prior

- 8:30 (CA) Canadian Q1 Labor Productivity Q/Q: -0.4%e versus -0.5% prior

- 8:30 (US) May PPI M/M: 0.6%e (0.3% prior) Y/Y: -4.4%e versus -3.7% prior

- 8:30 (US) May PPI Ex Food & Energy M/M: 0.1%e versus 0.1% prior; Y/Y: 3.2%e versus 3.4% prior

- 8:30 (US) May Housing Starts: 485Ke versus 458K prior; Building Permits: 508Ke versus 498k prior

- 9:15 (US) May Industrial Production: -1.0%e versus -0.5% prior; Capacity Utilization: 68.4%e versus 69.1% prior

- 12:00 (TU) Turkey Central bank Base Rate Decision. A 25bps cut to 9.00% is expected.

- Brazil, Russia, India & China (BRIC) Summit commences in Russia

 

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Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

Wed 18 Oct
12:30 US- Housing Starts & Permits
14:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 19 Oct
01:30 AU- Employment
08:30 GB- Retail Sales
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 20 Oct
12:30 CA- Retail Sales & CPI
14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales

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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue-- 08:30 GMT GB- CPI top tier confirmation of Inflation.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT DE- ZEW Survey second most important German monthly Survey.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT EZ- final HICP revision to flash report. Revisions are usually minor.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 13:15 GMT US- Industrial Production. Top output indicator.



  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 12:30 GMT US- Housing Starts and Permits revision to flash report. Useful housing leading indicator.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 14:30 GMT US- EIA Crude. Top WTI inventory measure.



  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 01:30 GMT AU- Employment. Top economic indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 02:00 GMT CN- GDP. Top economic indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Thu-- 08:30 GMT GB- Retail Sales. Top consumption indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 12:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless. Employment Indicator.



John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

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