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Wednesday June 17, 2009 - 12:13:39 GMT
FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com

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FX Thoughts for the day : 17-JUN-2009 - 1211 GMT

EURO, JAP YEN and EURO-YEN
---------------------------
Read our current comments and trade recommendations on EUR-USD, USD-JPY and EUR-JPY by registering at
http://www.kshitij.com/fxthoughts/fxthoughts.shtml#register

Our comments on Dollar-Swiss, Sterling Pound and Australian Dollar are given below
-------------------------------------------------------------


USD-CHF @ 1.0846/48...Support at 21-DMA
R: 1.0907 / 1.0956 / 1.0997
S: 1.0830 / 1.0814-00 / 1.0770
Dollar-Swiss has fallen during the day and our Limit Buy order at 1.0850 has got executed. We would aniticpate an increase. However, the currencies seems to have prepared themselves for upcoming US economic data releases as they now rest on/ face Resistance from some important short term levels. Dollar-Swiss is resting on the 21-DMA. A rise could take it towards 1.0964-1.1000 Resistance region while a break of the 21-DMA Support is likely to reverse the short term buoyant trend and take Support at 1.0770. We shall have to watch among the rest, the US housing starts data. To see the chart, click on:
http://www.kshitij.com/graphgallery/chfcandle.shtml#candle

Holding:
USD 10K Long at 1.0695, TSL 1.0790 (up from 1.0770), TP Open
USD 10K Long at 1.0850, SL 1.0790, TP Open
 

GBP-USD @ 1.6464/68...Rose sharply
R: 1.6650-65 / 1.6778 / 1.6847
S: 1.6421 / 1.6360 / 1.6328-03
Cable has risen sharply towards 1.65 and is likely to next target 1.6665, the previous high of 3rd June 2009. Though it had dipped earlier towards 1.6209, the Support at 1.6131 was not tested. It had been Supported on the 200-MA on the 4-H chart. A lot depends on the data releases for today. The Projected Max High for the day has already been breached. A rise past 1.6665 could be very bullish next targetting 1.6778-6813. With Crude having gone back above 72, the Cable too seem to be looking very buoyant now.

 
 
AUD-USD @ 0.8011/16...Indecisive
R: 0.8069 / 0.8154
S: 0.7974 / 0.7942-34 / 0.7853
Aussie has risen sharpy contrary to our expectations ahead of the Housing Starts. It has in the process broken above the 8- and 13-DMAs. It seems to have made the double top. So, one might now want it to come down sharply. But there could be the danger of triple top. But we would not bet too much on that.

Presently, it has Resistance at 0.8069. A rise past this is likely to take it towards 0.8200 while a sharp fall could make it fall towards 0.7853 being the Projected Max Low for the day.


Happy Trading!
 

 

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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

Wed 18 Oct
12:30 US- Housing Starts & Permits
14:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 19 Oct
01:30 AU- Employment
08:30 GB- Retail Sales
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 20 Oct
12:30 CA- Retail Sales & CPI
14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales

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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue-- 08:30 GMT GB- CPI top tier confirmation of Inflation.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT DE- ZEW Survey second most important German monthly Survey.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT EZ- final HICP revision to flash report. Revisions are usually minor.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 13:15 GMT US- Industrial Production. Top output indicator.



  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 12:30 GMT US- Housing Starts and Permits revision to flash report. Useful housing leading indicator.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 14:30 GMT US- EIA Crude. Top WTI inventory measure.



  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 01:30 GMT AU- Employment. Top economic indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 02:00 GMT CN- GDP. Top economic indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Thu-- 08:30 GMT GB- Retail Sales. Top consumption indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 12:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless. Employment Indicator.



John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

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