Data surprises. US data from the Philadelphia Fed and the
leading index positively surprised the markets, the S&P500 jumping at the
open, and closing up 0.8%. Commodities remained unstirred, however, the CRB index
-0.1% on the day. US 10yr treasuries clearly responded, rising 16bp to 3.84%, a
record supply next week also contributing.
The US dollar, which had been stuck in
a 0.5% sideways range during the London session, lurched upwards a couple of hours ago
to be +0.5% on the day. It seems a move by the British Bankers Association to
expand the Libor fixing panel was behind the lurch, the reasoning being the new
panel members are expected to be of lower credit quality, which would raise the
Libor fixing rate; the market responded by pushing swap rates higher, in turn
supporting the dollar. EUR was contained in a sideways 1.3900 to 1.4000
range before the Libor news, falling to 1.3870 and settling just below 1.3900. GBP
saw a volatile range, falling from 1.6460 to 1.6190 during the London morning after a disappointing retail sales
report, before recovering to 1.6340. The CHF weakened against the USD
from 1.0760 to 1.0900 after the Swiss central bank intervened verbally and
supposedly via buying EUR/CHF. The Canadian central bank repeated its pledge to
hold rates until June 2010, and said the CAD was being closely watched,
with no obvious effect on the currency.
AUD ranged between 0.7925 and 0.8005 until the London afternoon, when it broke higher to 0.8050,
settling at around 0.8000.
NZD was similarly subdued until an afternoon
breakout to 0.6445, settling at 0.6400. AUD/NZD continued its week-long grind
lower, to a 1.2480 to 1.2540 range.
US Philly Fed jumps to -2.2 in June. The Philly Fed factory survey jumped 20 points
this month, and although the headline remained slightly negative, in the detail
shipments turned slightly positive. Orders also posted a dramatic improvement
although jobs were only marginally less weak. Whilst an undeniably up-beat
report, we would note that the NY Fed survey did exactly this a month ago in
May, before slipping back in June. Also, the last time the Philly Fed jumped
20+ points was in September last year; in October 2008 it fell 40 points (in
the aftermath of the Lehman's collapse).
US leading index posted back to back rises of over
1.0% in April-May. Going back
40 years, we cannot find a stronger two month performance. The May gains were
driven mainly by the supplier deliveries, interest rate spread, equities, money
supply and consumer expectations components. Coupled with the Philly Fed
survey, this result has reignited talk of US economic recovery.
US initial jobless claims hovered just above 600k for the second week running last week, but the
real news was that in the prior week, continuing claims fell a sizeable 148k,
their first decline since January this year. Clarification - continuing claims
have on occasion fallen this year, but the decline has subsequently been
revised away. So before we add this result to the growing swag of evidence
pointing to less deterioration in the labour market, we will need to wait for
next week's figures at the very least.
UK retail sales down 0.6% in May, pay-back for apparent April strength which was
due to distortions caused by the timing of Easter and warm weather. May's
annual pace of retail volume decline matches February's low point, and those
two months represent the slowest annual sales pace since 1992. Also, the June
CBI industrial survey only posted the mildest of improvements. Along with huge
public sector borrowing numbers in May and deceleration in money supply growth,
this added to the weak tone of the UK data.
Canadian headline CPI dipped to just
0.1% yr in May, its lowest
since 1994. However there was some upward on the core rate. As last year's late
cycle gasoline price rises drop out of the annual calculation, and this year's
CAD appreciation impacts on prices, the CPI should continue to moderate.
The NZD's short term strength could take it to
0.6470 today, which doesn't damage our medium-term view of a multi-month
decline to around 0.5500. US markets tonight could be volatile, given the
quadruple witching day, where several important futures and options contracts
expire simultaneously. Next week's data calendar is busy, including a number of
heavyweight releases such as GDP and the current account, and increased
volatility in the NZD is likely.
Daily Forex Market News Forex news reports can be found on the forex research
headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports
provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex
market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found
Forex News Real-time forex market news reports and features providing
other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the
headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest
forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less
recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines
and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports
from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."
Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.
Tue 19 June 2018 A 12:30 US- House Permits/Starts Wed 20 June 2018 A 14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales A 14:30 US- EIA Crude Thu 21 June 2018 AA 11:00 GB- Bank of England Decision A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless Fri 22 June 2018 AFlash PMIs
John M. Bland, MBA co-founding Partner, Global-View.com
Global-View Affiliate Program
We are starting an affiliate program to market some of our products.
Send me an email if you would be interested or if you know someone who would like to be an affiliate. Generous commissions payout for those accepted.
Put the word "affiliate" in the email subject line.
Veteran FX Trader, Max McKegg, forecasts all the Major currencies and the Australasians; providing Daily and Medium Term Trading forecasts to subscribers, who include large Banks the world over, as well as individual traders in more than 30 different countries.
looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are
more critical things to consider than you might have thought.
We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View
has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've
seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.
The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.
The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.
Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by Global-View.com.
The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.
Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.
Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.
Global-View.com also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at Global-View.com. This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.
WARNING: FOREIGN EXCHANGE TRADING AND INVESTMENT IN DERIVATIVES
CAN BE VERY SPECULATIVE AND MAY RESULT IN LOSSES AS WELL AS PROFITS. FOREIGN
EXCHANGE AND DERIVATIVES TRADING IS NOT SUITABLE FOR MANY MEMBERS OF THE
PUBLIC AND ONLY RISK CAPITAL SHOULD BE APPLIED. THE WEBSITE DOES NOT TAKE
INTO ACCOUNT SPECIAL INVESTMENT GOALS, THE FINANCIAL SITUATION OR SPECIFIC
REQUIREMENTS OF INDIVIDUAL USERS. YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER YOUR FINANCIAL
SITUATION AND CONSULT YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISORS AS TO THE SUITABILITY TO YOUR
SITUATION PRIOR TO MAKING ANY INVESTMENT OR ENTERING INTO ANY TRANSACTIONS.