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Forex Blog - European Market Update: IMF's Lipsky confirmed that the IMF would modestly raise 2010 growth forecast; EU Summit draft statement noted that the Euro-Zone economy was on course for 'sustai

Today 05:59am EST/09:59am GMT

European Market Update: IMF's Lipsky confirmed that the IMF would modestly raise 2010 growth forecast; EU Summit draft statement noted that the Euro-Zone economy was on course for 'sustainable' recovery without need for more fiscal stimulus

*** ECONOMIC DATA ***

- (GE) German Producer Prices M/M: 0.0% v 0.0%e; Y/Y:-3.6% v -3.6%

- (FR) French Q1 Final Wages Q/Q: 0.8% v 0.8%e

- (HU) Avg Gross Wages Y/Y: 3.6%e v 4.3% prior

- (NE) Netherlands Jun Consumer Confidence: -24 v -24e

- (IT) Italian Q1 Unemployment Rate: 7.3% v 7.3%e

- (UK) May Car Production -43% y/y, Commercial Vehicle Production -73.5% y/y - SMMT


*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***

- In equities news overnight: European Equity markets opened to a positive following muted pre-market trading. News flow from the Asian session again remained mixed with continued GDP upgrades for China but bearish/cautious central bank speak. On the open, in sector performance utilities outperformed with E.on [EOAN.GE] and ENEL[ENEL.IT] leading the way following a sector upgrade out of UBS. UBS downgrade of pan-European retailers added further weight to that sector following yesterdays disappointing UK retail sales number. UK listed names including Kingfisher [KGF.UK] and Home Retail [HOME.UK] led this sector underperformance. Interim trading reports out of UK home builder Talyor Wimpey [TW.UK] proved more bullish than expected noting signs of recovery in UK and US markets lifted sector names including Bovis [BVS.UK] and Bellway [BWY.UK]. Equity bourses turned negative by 3:15EST but rallied and moved through the unchanged mark at 3:30EST. With limited European data to affect the direction of equity trade, markets decoupled past 3:45EST with the CAC and FTSE pushing higher with strength in industrials as EAD's [EAD.FR] continued to announce new orders, mixed financials and earnings based equity strength (Carnival [CCL.Uk]). German equity markets continued to be weighed by automotive names [VOW.GE] and the approach of an equity weight rebalance set to come into effect on Monday. On the back of these forces the DAX underperformed and remained negative through 4:00EST. Trading remained subdued through the 4:00EST hour with heavy attention given to Iran's Khamenei Friday prayer speech (downplaying divisions, seeing continuity of Islamic Republic). Decoupling of equity markets continued as the DAX labored near the unchanged level, above and below zero on continued auto sector weight while the CAC and FTSE printed highs of +0.75% and +1.00% at 4:45EST before paring gains. Euribor fixings, coming in at 5:10EST at new lows provided comfort to concerns regarding BBA alterations over Libor structuring and equity markets quickly caught a bid. The DAX recovered its losses and moved to +0.25% while the FTSE printed +1.44% and the CAC +0.75%.


-In individual equities: Standard Charter [STAN.UK] Banking group is considering further listings in Asia -WSJ. CEO states that group is always looking for further listing locations, see India as primary candidate. || Taylor Wimpey [TW.UK] Provides trading update: Severe downside scenarios previously foreseen are now less likely to materialize. Net debt at £1.01B v £1.68B y/y, Order book at £971M v £562M y/y, Operate 337 outlets v 386 y/y. || British Land [BLND.UK] London Times: Israel's Property & Building in talks to take £100M stake in Broadgate. Property and Building is controlled by Billionaire Nochi Dankner stated that it was in the initial stages of buying a stake in Broadgate for £100M. Article noted that under the deal being proposed, the pair would also take on a sizeable part of the £2B of debt that is secured on Broadgate, which - along with the cash they are putting in - could give them a half-share in the 32-acre office development. || Air France: [AF.FR] CEO: Considering all options to face crisis; can not confirm speculation of partial employee unemployment plans. Outlook to remain difficult through Dec 2009, could cut up to additional 3K employees. || Daimler [DAI.GE] S&P lowers rating one notch to BBB+ from A-. || Porsche [PAH3.GE] Reports 9-month (August-April) sales €4.64B v €5.46B y/y, will not reach 2008 level sales in 2009. Delivered 53.6K units v 74K units y/y. || BMW [BMW.GE] Reportedly Chinese JV partner trading lower on the back of reports that Chinese gov does not plan to purchase BMW vehicles. ||

Fortis [FORB.BE] Update: Files court order asking Dutch state to force nationalized Fortis Capital Company to pay preferred stock holders €362.5M. || Strabag STR.AS: [CEO] To see flat revenue growth in FY09; Expect continued painful economic consolidation. To attempt to diversify operations outside of Europe. See coming construction crisis in Europe in 2012-2013. Russian markets remain a long way from full recovery. ||


- Speakers: IMF's Lipsky confirmed that the IMF would modestly raise 2010 growth forecast for global economy from its +1.9% view from April. IMF to unveil its new forecasts in early July but G8 sources put the 2010 GDP outlook at 2.4% ||| ECB's Gonzalez-Paramo noted that economic recovery was less certain without reforms as financial regulators have failed without doubt ||| ECB's Bini Smaghi commented that one must resist nationalism in push for financial oversight reforms. He noted that there were signs of stabilization in financial markets. ||| BBA stated that it had no targets for number of additional banks that could join LIBOR panels ||| Polish Central Banker Skrzypek commented that that central bank remained towards an easing bias and that inflation was not a significant problem. He did note that the central bank might not use its monetary policy tools over commodity-led inflation. He expected a positive GDP reading for 2009. The central banker noted that the IMF credit line was an 'insurance policy' and was not expecting to use the line ||| EU Summit draft statement noted that the Euro-Zone economy was on course for 'sustainable' recovery and to reject further calls for additional stimulus measures. The EU seeks a for 'credible' exit strategy. EU applauded Latvia planned budget cuts and calls for 'rigorous implementation' of such cuts. It urged swift payment of next aid installment for Latvia. Lastly the EU to call Pan-European risk board and watchdogs in 2010 ||| (HU) Hungary Central Banker Chief Simor noted that the market environment remained uncertain ||| World Steel Association: May Global output 95.6M tons v 89M tons m/m


- In Currencies: The EUR/USD continues to consolidate within the 200 pips range of 1.38 to 1.40 with reported sovereign names on each end of the bounders. Euro was initially firmer after EU draft statement noted 'sustainable' recovery in the Euro-Zone. Dealers were still trying to understand the implications of the LIBOR changes announced on Thursday. UBS Analyst noted that the Dollar FX rate might be supported by the increase in LIBOR panels and ECB refi tender.

- The JPY was softer against its major pairs as the IMF and EU Summit comments fueled risk appetite.

- CAD and AUD firmer as well on the back of higher crude oil prices. Aussy also aided by an analyst call that the RBA could raise interest rates before year-end.


- In Energy: Royal Dutch Shell [RDSA.UK] Announced natural gas discovery in Norwegian Sea with the discovery made at a record depth. The find estimated between 10 to 100 billion standard cubic meters ||| PetroChina [PTR] FT reported that the company was negotiating possible investment in Ineos' refinery in Grangemouth, Scotland. A purchase by the co. would be its first move into refining in Europe. NYMEX July crude up over 50 cents just under the $72/barrel mark.


- In Fixed Income Supply: The boost to risk appetite stemming from IMF and EU comments has put government bond markets under pressure this morning. Gilts have lead the way down on a cross markets basis, and yield curves on both sides of the Atlantic are exhibiting bear steepening biases. Ten year Gilts are yielding 3.875% at the time of writing, with the 10y Note yielding 3.84% and the Bund at 3.576%. To avoid the wrath of the bond vigilantes, the French debt agency announced it would sell up to €4B in 30y OAT's via a syndicate of banks next week, a trend that is gathering steam following the UK's 25y Gilt auction earier this week. Three month Euribor fixed at a new record low of 1.22%, whilst Usd swap spreads narrowed back below 50bps following clarification on changes to Libor from the BBA. The BBA noted that allowing additional banks to join the panel which calculates Libor "will not affect the way in which current contributors formulate their rate submissions."


- Credit crisis: S&P reduced its risk assessment on Japanese banks to 2 from 3 as it noted that risks have moderated. S&P commented that Japanese banks could withstand cyclical downturn and absorb credit losses of nonperforming assets as their loan portfolios have improved in the past few years ||| Irish press article that the IMF's projections on the Irish budget deficit and medium-term recovery are worse than Gov't estimates. IMF is believed to have calculated that the "structural" deficit could be as much as 10% of GDP or €18B versus Irish Govt estimate of 8%. Article noted that the IMF believes correcting this would require very difficult choices on public spending and would endorse the widespread view that most of the correction must now come on the spending side, rather than through more tax rises |||


- Geopolitical: Iran''s Supreme Leader Khamenei ruled out fraud behind President''s Ahmadinejad victory


*** NOTES ***

- Quiet European session on the data front but some supportive economic comments providing some momentum on the green shoot scenario.

- EU Summit- draft statement: Economy on course for 'sustainable' recovery; reject further stimulus measures. Calls for 'credible' exit strategy

- IMF to modestly raise 2010 growth forecast for global economy to +2.4% from its Apr view of +1.7%


***Looking Ahead*** Triple Witching expiry of stock index futures, stock index options and single stock options.

i- 8:00 (PD) Polish May Producer M/M: 0.1%e v -0.6% prior, Y/Y: -6.6%e v -12.4% prior

- 8:30 (CA) Canadian Apr Retail Sales M/M: 0.1%e v 0.3% prior, Retail Sales less Autos M/M: -0.1% v -0.2% prior

- (RU) Russian May Unemployment Rate: 10.3%e v 10.2% prior

- (RU) Russian May Retail Sales M/M: No expectations v -0.2% prior, Y/Y: -6.2%e v -5.3% prior

 

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