Â·SNB wants to
prevent appreciation of franc, confirms willingness to intervene
Â·FOMC will try to
dampen interest rate hike expectations
US dollar: changing patterns
In the course of the last two weeks, the US currency has firmed somewhat. EUR-USD was still
around 1.42 in the first week in June. After having fallen
below 1.38 for a time, the euro is now back at around 1.39 again. Like the
euro, most major currencies lost ground against the dollar, particularly the
Swedish krona, the zloty and the Canadian dollar. USD-JPY climbed over 98
temporarily,but relinquished its gains at the beginning of the week. It is
currently around 96, as it was in the first week in June.
At its bi-annual media conference, the Swiss National
Bank confirmed that it would maintain its very expansive monetary policy stance
and that it was willing to prevent the appreciation of the Swiss franc against
the euro. However, the remark that there was no clearly defined intervention level
seems to have prompted the markets to test EUR-CHF below the 1.50 level.
Reportedly, this led to intervention later that day in support of the euro. At
any rate, it recovered to around 1.51 again towards the end of the week. The
Canadian central bank has also intervened during the last few days â€“ albeit
only verbally â€“ to prevent the Canadian dollar from strengthening. Moreover,
the BoC governor confirmed thebankâ€™s intention to keep interest rates at 0.25% until
the middle of 2010, and even hinted at the possibility of additional quantitative
USD: Between interest rate rise
expectations and crisis fears
Market reactions in the forex market are not following
a set pattern at the moment. On the release of the US labour market report for May, which indicated that
the pace of job losses was slowing significantly, the US currency firmed. This is a sign that things are
getting back to normal: the slight improvement in the labour market figures
fuelled speculation that the Fed could start to raise interest rates sooner
than expected â€“ possibly even as early as 2009. The yield on 2- year T-notes
shot up from below 1.00% to over 1.30%, even rising over 1.40% for a short
time. Furthermore, the interest rate disadvantage to equivalent euro papers
narrowed by about 25 points, which would normally serve to strengthen the
At the beginning of this week, however, economic optimism
began to wane. After having
risen the previous two months, the New York Empire
Manufacturing Index dropped from â€“4.5 to â€“9.4 in June; US industrial production
fell again in May, by 1.1%, and is thus heading for a contraction of 3% or more
in the current quarter; moreover, weak housing starts and building permits show
that residential construction, unlike existing homes transactions, has not yet
bottomed out. In this environment, equity markets, which had not gone up since
the beginning of June as it is, began to tumble. The bond markets regained lost
ground. And how did the dollar react? The greenback continued to strengthen.
The movement here was clearly following the â€śsafe havenâ€ť pattern again: when
the crisis seems to be escalating, market participants become risk-averse and flock
into the dollar.
The anxious mood lifted somewhat after it was reported
on Thursday that the Philly Fed Index had surged to just below zero (â€“2.2 from â€“22.6).
Some market participants also saw the decline in continuing claims as a good
sign, even though it is not clear whether it signified an increase in employment
or merely that less people had a right to claim unemployment benefit.
Uncertainty is still rife, however; within the space
of a few days, the markets alternate between
diametrically opposed scenarios. The Federal Open
Market Committeeâ€™s regular meeting is
scheduled for next Wednesday. There are not expected
to be any announcements on monetary
policy measures. The Fed will leave interest rates on
hold and continue with its quantitative measures. Markets will be focusing more
on the statement, particularly with regard to the longer-term interest rate
outlook. We are expecting the Fed to confirm the signs that the economic
downturn is slowing and to state that things are also improving in financial
markets. However, the emphasis will probably be on allaying fears of inflation rising
and interest rates being raised accordingly in the near future, in particular
by pointing out the extremely low level of capacity utilisation. The gist of
the last statement is likely to be reiterated, i.e. that given the economic
situation, exceptionally low interest rates are justified for some time to
It is very hard to predict how forex market players will
react to this message. In normal circumstances, a downward correction of
interest rate expectations would have a negative impact on the dollar. The
reaction will largely depend on whether a mood of economic scepticism or
optimism predominates in the markets.
The US economic indicators at the beginning next week are
not likely to shed much light on the way things are going. Durable goods orders
will probably have declined in May, whereas home sales are expected to have
increased, partly as a result of tax incentives. In Europe,
the monthly series of sentiment indicators will be published, including the ifo
business climate index for June, French and Italian national business climate
indices, and the preliminary purchasing manager indices. They will probably have
improved, but are not likely to raise any great hopes of an upswing.
Rieke +49 69 718-4114
Grabbe / Klaus NĂ¤fken
report has been prepared by BHF-BANK Aktiengesellschaft on behalf of itself and
its affiliated companies (together "BHF-BANK Group") solely for the
information of its clients. The information and opinions in this document are
based on sources believed to be reliable and acting in good faith, but no
representation or warranty, express or implied, is made by any member of the
BHF-BANK Group as to their accuracy, completeness or correctness. Opinions and
recommendations are given in good faith but without legal responsibility and
are subject to change without notice. The information does not constitute
advice or personal recommendation, for which the duty of suitability would be
owed, but may facilitate your own investment decision. Moreover, you should
seek your own advice as to the suitability of an investment matter mentioned
herein. Investors are reminded that the price of securities and the income from
them can go down as well as up and that the past performance of an investment
or a market is not necessarily indicative for future results. This document is
for information purposes only. Descriptions of any company or companies or
their securities mentioned herein are not intended to be complete, and this
document is not, and should not be construed as, an offer to sell or solicitation
of any offer to buy the securities mentioned in it. BHF-BANK Group and its
officers and employees may have a long or short position or engage in
transactions in any of the securities mentioned in this document, or in any
related securities. This publication must not be distributed in the United
rights reserved. Please mention source when quoting from it.
Forex Trading News
Daily Forex Market News Forex news reports can be found on the forex research
headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports
provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex
market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found
Forex News Real-time forex market news reports and features providing
other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the
headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest
forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less
recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines
and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports
from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."
Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.
Tue 17 July 2018 AA 08:30 GB- Employment A 13:15 US- Industrial Production AA 14:00 US-Powell Testimony Wed 18 July 2018 AA 08:30 GB- CPI A 12:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits AA 14:00 US-Powell Testimony Thu 19 July 2018 AA 1:30 AU- Employment AA 08:30 GB- Retail Sales A 14:30 US- EIA Crude A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless Fri 20 Jun 2018 A 12:30 CA- CPI/Retail Sales
John M. Bland, MBA co-founding Partner, Global-View.com
Global-View Affiliate Program
We are starting an affiliate program to market some of our products.
Send me an email if you would be interested or if you know someone who would like to be an affiliate. Generous commissions payout for those accepted.
Put the word "affiliate" in the email subject line.
Veteran FX Trader, Max McKegg, forecasts all the Major currencies and the Australasians; providing Daily and Medium Term Trading forecasts to subscribers, who include large Banks the world over, as well as individual traders in more than 30 different countries.
looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are
more critical things to consider than you might have thought.
We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View
has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've
seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.
The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.
The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.
Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by Global-View.com.
The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.
Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.
Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.
Global-View.com also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at Global-View.com. This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.
WARNING: FOREIGN EXCHANGE TRADING AND INVESTMENT IN DERIVATIVES
CAN BE VERY SPECULATIVE AND MAY RESULT IN LOSSES AS WELL AS PROFITS. FOREIGN
EXCHANGE AND DERIVATIVES TRADING IS NOT SUITABLE FOR MANY MEMBERS OF THE
PUBLIC AND ONLY RISK CAPITAL SHOULD BE APPLIED. THE WEBSITE DOES NOT TAKE
INTO ACCOUNT SPECIAL INVESTMENT GOALS, THE FINANCIAL SITUATION OR SPECIFIC
REQUIREMENTS OF INDIVIDUAL USERS. YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER YOUR FINANCIAL
SITUATION AND CONSULT YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISORS AS TO THE SUITABILITY TO YOUR
SITUATION PRIOR TO MAKING ANY INVESTMENT OR ENTERING INTO ANY TRANSACTIONS.