Wednesday June 24, 2009 - 11:00:27 GMT
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Black Swan Capital - www.blackswantrading.com
Bad day of the dollar
â€˘ Japanâ€™s export dropped 40.9 percent in May from a year earlier, more than Aprilâ€™s 39.1 percent decline, the Finance Ministry said today in Tokyo. (Bloomberg)
â€˘ The European Central Bank said it will lend banks 442 billion euros ($621 billion) for 12 months as it steps up efforts to unblock credit markets in the 16- nation euro region. (Bloomberg)
Key Reports Due (WSJ):
7:00 a.m. June 1 Mortgage Refinance Applications: Previous: -23.3%.
8:30 a.m. May Durable Goods Orders: Expected: -1.5%. Previous: +1.9%.
10:00 a.m. May New Home Sales: Expected: +2.6%. Previous: +0.3%.
10:30 a.m. June 1 U.S. Energy Dept Oil Inventories
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To know that you do not know is the best.
To pretend to know when you do not know is a disease.
FX Trading â€“ Bad day of the dollar
We were expecting at least one day of follow-through (actually more) on the green shoot to brown weed re-think, thinking it would benefit the dollar as it did on Monday, but no dice. It seems all attention is back on the Fed and quantitative ease and signs of recoveryâ€”QE and recovery both synonymous in tradersâ€™ minds to sell the greenback.
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Not to let the facts get in the way of anyoneâ€™s expectations, knowing weâ€™ve been steamrolled by real prices moved by real peoplesâ€™ expectations, but if you didnâ€™t notice in the Key News items above, we wanted to re-iterate and expand a bit:
Japan, one of the worldâ€™s MAJOR exporters, just posted a 40.9% DECLINE in exports for the month of May, compared to May last year.
o Steel, autos, and semiconductors led the slump
o Chinaâ€™s 4 trillion yuan ($585 billion) in stimulus measures havenâ€™t been enough to offset sales declines in the U.S. and Europe.
Durable goods orders at 8:30 and new homes sales at 10:00, with the verdict from the Fed is delivered at 2:15 p.m. today. Stay tuned.
Black Swan Capital LLC
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