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Forex Blog - European Market Update: Official speak continues to be cautious on the global economic recovery; SNB again seen acting to curb CHF currency strength

Today 05:59am EST/09:59am GMT

European Market Update: Official speak continues to be cautious on the global economic recovery; SNB again seen acting to curb CHF currency strength



- (TT) Taiwan Central Bank keeps Benchmark Rate unchanged at 1.25%; as expected

- (CZ) Czech Central Bank left its Repo Rate unchanged at 1.50%; Not expected. Consensus was looking for a 25bps cut

- (US) Apr RPX Composite 28-day Y/Y: -19.7% v -21.8% prior; Index: 188.52 v 186.03 prior

- (SP) Spain May Producer Prices M/M: 0.1% v 0.0%e; Y/Y: -4.4% v -4.5%e

- (CZ) Czech June Consumer Confidence: -17.0 v -16.0 prior, Business Confidence: -9.0 v -8.1 prior, Consumer & Business Confidence: -10.6 v -9.7 prior

- (SA) South Africa May PPI M/M: -1.1% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: -3.0% v -1.9%e

- (SW) Swedish June Consumer Confidence: -9.0 v -8.8e; Manufacturing Confidence: -31 v -30e; Economic Tendency Survey: 79.4 v 77.0 prior

- (RU) Russian Gold & Forex Reserves w/e Jun 19th: $407.1B v $406.6B prior

- (IT) Italian Jun Business Confidence: 69.3 v 70.0e; Retailers Confidence: 98.5 v 94.7 prior; Services Survey: -12 v -6 prior

- (NV) Netherlands June Producer Confidence: -15.0 v -16.5e

- (NV) Netherlands Apr Consumer Spending Y/Y: -3.6% v -3.0%e

- (NV) Netherlands Q1 Final GDP Q/Q: -2.6% v -2.8%e; Y/Y: -4.5% v -4.5%e

- (SW) Swedish May PPI M/M: -0.5% v -0.1%e; Y/Y: 2.9% v 3.5%e

- (IT) Italian May Trade Balance Non-EU: €555.0M v -€55.0M prior

- (PD) Poland May Retail Sales M/M: -2.1% v -3.3%e; Y/Y: +1.1% v -0.5%e

- (PD) Poland May Unemployment Rate: 10.8% v 10.8%e

- (HK) Hong Kong May Trade Balance (HKD) -11.5B v -18.4Be

- IATA: May International Air Passenger Traffic -9.3% y/y, Air Freight Traffic -17.4% y/y

- (EU) Apr Industrial New Orders M/M: -1.0% v 0.0%e; Y/Y: -35.5% v -32.8%e


- In equities news overnight:: Equity markets in Europe opened mixed with the CAC posting slight opening gains following a strong close to Wednesdays trading. Wednesdays close was pushed higher following a better than expected US durable goods order (+1.8%). This positive sentiment, along with further merger rumors and some leaked RPX data rumors buoyed Asian equity markets and this strength looked set to flow back into European trade. This sentiment was not to last through the open as markets moved broadly below the -0.50% level by 3:15EST. Most notably, those mining and resource names that had traded markedly higher in
Asia led the market sector down move, this action in coordination with some significant GBP/CHF moves has raised further question regarding the possibility of on-going M&A in the sector. The announcement that Carl Svanberg would leave his post at Ericson [ERICB.SW] for BP [BP.UK] had significant effects on the tech and phone sector as Svanberg has been seen as a big name in the industry. Some rivals, including Alcatel Lucent [ALo.FR] and STMicro [STM.FR] moved higher on the back of the announcement. Markets bounced off lows just before economic data at 3:30EST. That data out of the Netherlands, Italy, France and Sweden came in broadly neutral and had little equity effect. Economic data at 4:00 had the same low effect as equities continued to push higher on further M&A chatter. Strong earnings out of H&M [HMB.SW] in the premarket furthered the up movement in retail names during this period of equity gains. Equities took a further leg up at 4:08EST following IATA comments regarding air travel figures for May, in specific airlines, led by Lufthansa [LHA.GE]. As with every other equity trend, however, this new found enthusiasm was only short term and markets turned south after muted Hong Kong data at 4:30EST and reports from Standard Charter [STAN.UK] that provided little new ongoing operation data. By 5:00EST, markets were negative across the board and CAC and DAX were just off session lows, down -0.75-90%. Volume in the European morning trade remained light, below averages for the FTSE, CAC and DAX. Into 5:00EST, markets continue to trend south with healthcare, basic resources and energy sector names leading downward trend.

-In individual equities: Suedzucker [SZU.GE] Reports Q1 Net profit €65M v €122M y/y, Op profit €88M v €63M y/y, Rev €1.41B v €1.47B y/y; reaffirms FY09 outlook. Expects FY2010 op profit €400M v €410.8Me, Rev €5.9B v €5.9Be. ||H&M [HMB.SW] Reports Q2 Net SEK4.2B v SEK4.2Be, Rev (ex VAT) SEK26.5B v SEK26.7Be. GM 61% v 62.9% y/y, May SSS -9.0% v -9.0%e y/y, May total store sales flat v +0.9%e y/y, May total stores at 1.8K v 1.6K y/y. || Standard Charter [STAN.UK] Issues Trading Update: Continued to deliver strong performance in the first five months of the year, with record levels of income and profit. States: Group is currently tracking towards a strong first half of the year, based on record income and profits to the end of May. || BP [BP.UK] Selects Carl Henric Svanberg as new Chairman, effective
Jan 1 2010, Formerly CEO of Ericsson. || DS Smith [SMDS.UK] Reports FY09 Adj Pretax £72.5M v £111.0M y/y, Rev £2.11B v £1.97B y/y. || DSG International [DSGI.UK] Reports Prelim FY09 Pretax £50.5M v £64.4Me, R £8.4B v £8.4Be. || Bouygues [EN.FR] Unit awarded €335M contract for port construction in Morocco. || Alcatel Lucent [ALU.FR] Planning to sell €500M in convertible bonds - French press. || Wendel [MF.FR] Has completed debt restructuring, for Materis, covenants reset after revised business plan. States that liquidity measures are now secure through 2013. €36M has been injected into the unit. || Lufthansa [LHA.GE] CFO: Volumes for logistics may have reached bottom, no clear improvement is in sight. May cut short haul capacity by 11%, total groundings seen at 25 in 2009 as part of capacity reductions. || Kuka [KU2.GE] May consider job cuts as it looks for measures to reduce costs -FTD. || Fraport [FRA.GE] Might be awarded $1.5B contract to build and operate airport terminal in St. Petersburg, Russia - Vedomosti. || SGL Carbon [SGL.GE] To sell €190M in sr unsecured notes to institutional investors. || Skanska [SKAB.SW] Awarded SEK1.7B contract for hospital construction in US. || Arcadis [ARCAD.NV] To merge with Malcolm Pirnie; Issuing 5.74M million new shares (9% of current shares outstanding) to finance merger. || Barry Callebaut [BARN.SZ] Reports 9-month Rev CHF3.64B v CHF3.61B y/y. Confident over reaching financial targets. || Givaudan [GIVN.SZ] Rights issue placed at CHF420/share (36% discount from Wed close). Rights for approx 99.7% of placement exercised. || Fomento de Construcciones [FCC.SP] Reportedly willing to sell minority holdings in business and services unit to infrastructure funds -Expansion. ||

- Speakers: ECB's Provopoulos commented that the 'Green shoots' are not necessarily a sign of any rapid return to the growth front. Uncertainty remained high on global, European economic outlook. He did see signs of stabilization in the
US and in Europe |||China Central Bank (PBOC) issued a Monetary Policy Report: and stated that its economy was recovering, but reiterating it was not yet on "solid footing". It again stressed that it is in a critical period for the economy. The PBoC noted that liquidity remained abundant in banking system. Have some concern over rapidly rising loan growth and would strengthen coordination between monetary and fiscal policies. |||German BGA Export Union warned against US and Chinese protectionist measures. The BGA labeled such measures as 'poison' for global trade |||Polish Central Banker Czekaj commented that a policy bias shift to 'neutral' policy bias was possible. He did conceded that further interest rate cuts were possible if inflation slowed but that such interest rate cuts would be no bigger than 25bps. He forecasted that Czech Q3 GDP as negative but FY09 growth to be above Zero percent level ||| Polish Central banker Trenkner commented that there were no needs to cut interest rates immediately and stated that an interest rate hike later in 2009 might be more appropriate ||| Japan Top Fin Min official Sugimoto stated that Japan and South Korea to conduct talks on Global economy and Asian region || World bank Economist Lin noted that the current e Economic crisis cannot be solved without addressing global excess capacity issues. He commented that the "Green shoots" arising were results of government stimulus packages and not due to fundamental improvements. He commented that policy of currency depreciation would not increase export demands ||| IMF's Lipsky stated that confidence seemed to be recovering and that it would likely to revise growth projections slightly upwards, particularly for 2010. There were continued uncertainty about pace and timing of any economic recovery and highly likely to be sluggish ||| ECB's Noyer commented that the economic crisis showed need for coordinated global action and better need for collective liquidity supply.

- In Currencies: The European morning saw some broad GBP selling with Middle Eastern and Swiss names cited for the move. GBP/USD declined by over 100 pips from its opening levels seen in
Asia to test 1.6320 before consolidating.

- The CHF consolidated its recent losses following the unconfirmed rumor of SNB intervention on Wednesday. If the SNB wanted to make a real point , it would act again at higher levels. At the time of this writing, the CHF was moving to session lows in choppy trading on renewed intervention speculation. USD/CHF tested the 1.10 area while EUR/CHF was at 1.5380 before sharply falling to below 1.5330 area.

- The EUR/USD maintained a consolidating tone and hovered around the 1.3940 to 1.3980 area during the morning.

- In Energy:
UK paper Guardian reported that Nigeria was "running out of crude oil" to supply its refineries. Nigerian militants have held a string of attacks against oil facilities and pipelines in the oil rich Niger Delta region. These attacks have forced foreign oil companies to shut at least 133K bpd of oil production in the last month. Aug NYMEX crude futures up 30 cents just below the $69/berrel mark.

- In Fixed Income Supply: September Bunds have shrugged off yesterday's moves in US Treasuries, and after initially opened offered, have steadily ticked higher to test positive territory at the time of writing. There has been good buying in the short end and belly in
Germany, and the resulting steepening bias is being replicated in both Treasuries and Gilts. Euribor fixings improved sharply across the board, following the unprecedented take up of yesterday's inaugural 12 month refi operation by European Banks . Three and six month Euribor both fell by around 5bps to fix at new record lows of 1.15% and 1.35% respectively. Ahead of the Treasury's 7y note auction the new note is yielding 3.39%, implying roughly a 3bps roll. The UK sold £500M 2037 linkers in a mimi tender, with an extremely strong bid-to-cover of 3.37 times.

*** NOTES ***

- World Bank, IMF, China Central Bank and ECB all continue to be cautious on the global recovery front.

- Chinese Senior Researcher for the ruling Communist Party Li Lianzhong recommended gold buying on expected USD decline

- California state govt plans to tap reserve fund again (second time in 6 months) to meet debt service costs

- HKMA's Yam: US, Hong Kong economies require a long time to stabilize; Hong Kong economy is dependent on US recovery

- (US) Radar Logic: April 2009 25-MSA RPX Composite house price index +1.2% m/m, first increase since June 2007; YoY: -20%. Home prices increased on a month-over-month basis in 18 of the 25 metropolitan statistical areas covered by the report.

- China Foreign Ministry: Google [GOOG] had 'seriously' violated Chinese regulations

***Looking Ahead***

- (SA) South African Rate Decision: 50bps cut to 7.00%e (current Interest Rate is 7.50%)

- 8:00 (BR) Brazil May Unemployment Rate: 9.0%e v 8.9% prior

- 8:30 (US) Q1 Final GDP Q/Q: -5.7%e, GDP Price Index: 2.8%e, Core PCE Q/Q: 1.5%e

- 8:30 (US) Initial Jobless Claims w/e Jun 20th: 600Ke v 608K prior, Continuing Claims w/e Jun 13th: 6.714Me v 6.687M prior

- 9:00 (US) RPX Apr Composite 28dy Y/Y: No expectations v -21.80% prior

- 10:00 (US) Fed's Bernanke to testify at house Oversight committee on BoA/ Merril deal

- 11:00 (US) Fed to conduct coupon purchase of notes maturing between 08/15/2026 - 05/15/2039

- 13:00 (US) Treasury's $27B 7y Note Auction


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