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Forex Blog - European market Update: China's PBoC reiterated its call for a super-sovereign currency; USD weakens while commodities rise

Today 06:02am EST/10:02am GMT

European market Update: China's PBoC reiterated its call for a super-sovereign currency; USD weakens while commodities rise



- (GE) German May Import Prices M/M: 0.0% v 0.3%e ; Y/Y:-10.4 % v -10.3e

- (FR) French Q1 Final GDP: -1.2% v -1.2%e; Y/Y: -3.2% v -3.2%e

- (FR) French Jun Consumer Confidence: -37 v -39e

- (SP) Spain April Mortgages on Houses Y/Y: -41.9% v -25.5% prior, Mortgages on Capital Loaned Y/Y: -41.3% v -26.7% prior

- (SW) Swedish May Trade Balance: SEK9.5B v SEK8.4B prior

- (SW) Swedish May Household Lending Y/Y: 7.9% v 8.0% prior

- (IT) Italian Hourly Wages M/M: 0.0% v 0.1% prior; Y/Y: 3.0% v 3.1%e

- (GE) June CPI - North Rhine Westphalia M/M: 0.3% v -0.1% prior, Y/Y: 0.1% v 0.1% prior

- (IT) Italian Apr Large Company Employment Y/Y: -1.3 % v -1.2% prior

- (SZ) Swiss June KOF Leading Indicator: -1.65 v -1.75e

- (GE) June CPI - Bavaria M/M: 0.4% v -0.1% prior, Y/Y: 0.4% v 0.3% prior


- In equities news overnight: European bourses opened broadly positive following a sharply positive pre-market session. This equity trend followed gains seen out of
Asia where automotive sector names traded higher following comments from Bridgestone [5108.JP] and energy sector names took a lift from a resumed crude price increase. On the open, financial names led the initial push. As Russian markets opened (2:00EST) financials moved sharply higher on continued chatter of a significant Russian gov intervention plan to alleviate troubled assets for the counties 55 largest banks. According to the FT, the Russian gov would take preference shares convertible after 10 years to boost capital levels. Swiss bank UBS [UBSN.SZ] announced expectations for another quarterly loss (Q2) and a widely expected CHF3.8B capital raise. Despite initial downside trades in the premarket, UBS opened positive and moved with the sector; out-performing financial names included Deutsche Bank [DBK.GE] that received an analyst upgrade. Additionally early upside movers included British Airways [BA.UK] following staff pay reduction speculation, EAD's [EAD.FR] following a Qantas Boeing [BA] cancellation and the pan-basic resource sector in commodity price gains. Equity markets zig-zagged through the 3:00EST hour but survived a downturn in financial names to hold positive levels across the board. Unconfirmed reports of a further Italian stimulus package at 4:40EST halted the equity slide with the Italian MIB popping 70pts. German state CPI's for June, coming in broadly in-line or ahead of expectations, allowed the DAX to moderately outperform its Euro rivals. Past 5:00EST, the DAX continued to outperform, at over +1.0%, the CAC +0.71% and the FTSE +0.90%. Trading volumes remained high with the CAC outperforming its average.

UBS [UBSN.SZ] Expects to incur net loss for Q2 (vs. Net gain CHF391.3Me); Plans to raise about CHF3.8B (9.3% of market cap) in share sale by selling 293.3M shares at CHF13/shr (last: CHF13.97. ). Tier-1 capital ratio seen higher at June 30 vs. March 31 (on 05/05 reported Quarter end BIS Tier 1 ratio 10.5%). || Boeing [BA]:
Australia's Qantas to defer the delivery of 15 787-8s by 4 years to mid-2013 ; Cancels orders to 15 Boeing B787-9 aircraft scheduled for delivery in 2014-15. Qantas says the cancellations will reduce group CAPEX by $3.0B. || Hannover RE [HNR1.GE] Reportedly nearing HK reinsurance deal; Targeting FY09 ROE at 3.4% to 3.9%. Continues to see strong demand for reinsurance projects. Will seek to focus international reinsurance operations in the UK, US and HK. - Plan no further stock investments until Q3 2009. || Barclays [BARC.UK] CNP Assurances buys 50% stake in Iberian insurance operations for €140M. Barclays could receive an additional €450M over the course of 12-yrs depending on the performance of unit. || Berkeley Group [BKG.UK] Reports FY09 Pretax £120.4M v £125.6Me, Rev £702.2M v £713.2Me, Announces management changes. || BA [BAY.UK] Reportedly 7K staff have applied for voluntary pay cut scheme (15% of workforce) -BBC, 800 have agreed to 1-month free work option. || Alstom [ALO.FR] Named preferred bidder for SNCF regional trains - La Vie Du Rail. Order could include placements for 1K trains that are planned to be used in regional operations. || GDF Suez [GSZ.FR] Firm has sold 32.8% stake in Middle Eastern United Power Company (private). Terms of agreement were not released. || Peugeot [UG.FR] S&P places BBB-/A3 rating on Watch Negative. || VW [VOW.GE] Spokesperson: Declines to comment on Suzuki chatter. || Tui Travel [TUI1.GE] Exec: Co will reach financial targets despite difficult market environment. To cut winter season 2009-10 prices by 5% on lower hotel prices and fuel costs. Says is confident in summer bookings decline will slow in coming months. To slightly lower winter season number of airline seats bookings. || ENI [ENI.IT] Completes retail bond sale; €1B in fixed rate and €1B in floating sold (3% of market cap). Received €5.8B in offers. || Fortis [FORB.BE] Fortis Capital confirms ruling against Fortis Holdings. Fortis Holdings must pay €362.5M to a group of preference shareholders of Fortis Capital. Update: Fortis NV has stated that it will immediately challenge the ruling. || Sabadell [SAB.SP] To sell €300-500M in convertible bonds (9% of market cap). || (RU) Russia is considering a financial rescue program designed to get bad loans off bank balance sheets - FT. Under the draft bill being considered on Friday the prefs would be convertible into ordinary shares in 10 years' time should the bank be unable to pay back the bond when it matures in 2019. The recapitalization funds would be limited to the top 55 banks in Russia. The draft bill says only banks with a minimum of $1.6B in assets would be eligible. Analysts said such a plan could allow banks to declare the true level of bad loans on their balance sheets, which, once cleaned up under the programme, would break the credit squeeze and allow them to start lending again in 2010. ||

- Speakers:
China's PBoC reiterated its call for a super-sovereign currency. PBoC will push for less reliance on small set of reserve currencies. IMF should manage portion of foreign reserves of member countries. The Central Bank again cautioned that global economic uncertainty was increasing as Decline in its exports was adding to the banking sector risk. It saw both medium and long term inflation risks in China and added that Quantitative easing was a factor in rising expectations. |||ECB's Noyer: Recent stress tests confirm the solidity of French banking sector and reiterated that French banks have performed better than their global peers ||| EU's Almunia commented that interest rates near zero percent were not normal as risks of inflation could return when the euro zone economy recovered. He did note that the US economy was closer to recovery than Europe at this time. He was not worried about inflation but expressed some concern over the price of oil ||| Chinese Commerce & NDRC Ministries issue joint statement noting that the 'Buy local' policy did not discriminate against foreign cos. || Japan Fin Min Yosano commented that its 2009 GDP would be in line with estimates || German VDA confirmed that 2009 car sales would surpass year-ago levels |||

- In Currencies: Combination of factors helping to keep the USD sentiment on a soft tone. Dealers noting that a revival in stock markets and associated risk appetite has correlated with a fresh bout of dollar weakness coupled with higher oil prices as Nigerian militants continue to harass pipelines in the
Niger delta. China central bank again mentioned the reserve currency issue and this caused the USD to weaken across the board as the NY morning approachedEUR/USD tested the 1.4090 area and maintained a tight consolidation phase during most of the session. ||| Thai Dep PM: Likely to arrange currency swap with China and noted that the Bank of Thailand was studying the issue

- In Energy: Nigerian militant group MEND claims attack co.'s Afremo Field

***Note: Attack comes despite Nigerian President Umaru Yar'Adua granted amnesty to the militants operating in the Niger Delta region with a period of 60 days to accept it. ||| Russia's Gazprom [GAZP.RU] Vowed no repeat of last winter gas crisis and noted that they were holding talks with Ukraine's Naftogas about the issue.

- In Fixed Income Supply: With equities modestly bid, Bunds and Gilts are being offered with better selling of short dated issues leading to flatter yield curves on both sides of the channel. Italy sold €7.5B in 3 and 10y BTP's, right at the top of the range of expectations, with almost €3B in floating rate notes thrown in for good measure. Overnight deposits with the ECB surged to €143.4B, from €7.4B yesterday, showing demonstrable effects from the ECB's first 1 year refi operation on Wednesday. Euribor fixings, meanwhile, improved across the board , with both 3 month and 6 month fixing at a fresh record loss of 1.12% and 1.33% respectively.

- Former Fed Chairman Greenspan writes in the FT: that inflation posed a major threat to long-term economic recovery and its threat must be confronted. Inflation fears might soon be factored into longer-term
US government bond yields or interest rates. He stated that the need for governments to finance large fiscal deficits over the next few years could lead to political pressure on central banks to print money to buy much of the new debt.

***Looking Ahead***

- (GE) June CPI - Baden Wuttemburg M/M: % v -0.1% prior, Y/Y: % v 0.0% prior

- (GE) June CPI - Hesse M/M: % v 0.0% prior, Y/Y: % v -0.4% prior

- (GE) June CPI - Brandenburg M/M:% v -0.1% prior, Y/Y: % v -0.1% prior

- (GE) German June Prelim CPI M/M: % v 0.2%e; Y/Y: % v -0.1%e

- (GE) German June Prelim CPI - EU Harmonized: % v 0.2%e ; Y/Y: % v -0.1%e

- 8:30 (US) May Personal Income: 0.3%e v 0.5% prior, Personal Spending: 0.3%e v -0.1% prior

- 8:30 (US) May PCE Deflator Y/Y: 0.1%e v 0.4% prior,

- 8:30 (US) May PCE Core M/M: 0.1%e v 0.3% prior, Y/Y:1.8%e v 1.9% prior

- 10:00 (US) June Final University of Michigan Confidence: 69.0e v 69.0 prior

- (UK) Jun Nationwide House Prices M/M: 0.5% expected versus +1.2% prior; Y/Y: -10.8% expected versus -11.3% prior


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