Friday June 26, 2009 - 12:13:40 GMT
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FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com
FX Thoughts for the day : 26-JUN-2009 - 1212 GMT
EURO, JAP YEN and EURO-YEN
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Our comments on Dollar-Swiss, Sterling Pound and Australian Dollar are given below
USD-CHF @ 1.0838/40...Watch Support at 1.0835
R: 1.0915-53 / 1.1002-20
S: 1.0835 / 1.0805 / 1.0760
Dollar-Swiss has come off since the morning. The overall trend seems to be "ranged between 1.10-06". Within that, there is a crucial Support at 1.0835. Should that break, the market might fall more sharply towards 1.0803 (projected Max Low for the Day) and 1.0750. If and while the Support at 1.0835 holds, a rally back towards 1.0900-0950 might be seen.
USD 10K Long at 1.0860, SL 1.0800, TP 1.0950. As soon as the market trades 1.0900 hereafter, bring SL up to 1.0860.
GBP-USD @ 1.6488/91...Betting on a range
R: 1.6570 / 1.6606
S: 1.6420-10 / 1.6370-50
The Pound has risen further since the morning, after an intra-day dip to 1.6375, continuing the rally from yesterday's low near 1.6235. Overall, it is ranged
between 1.62-66 (maybe 1.6180-6680) for the last several days and is likely to remain ranged for the rest of the day.
In the bigger picture, there is Support at 1.6435 and Resistance at 1.6820, the latter being the 50% retracement of the fall from 2.0160 (Jul-08) to 1.3503 (Jan-09). If the Resistance at 1.6820 is broken, however, a further rise towards 1.70+ can take place.
Intra-day, while the Resistance at 1.6600-80 holds, a profit-booking fall back towards 1.64, or lower, might be seen.
Limit Sell Order:
Sell GBP 10K at 1.6600, SL 1.6690, TP 1.6300
AUD-USD @ 0.8068/74...Watch Resistance at 0.8080
R: 0.8080 / 0.8180-87
S: 0.8030-20 / 0.7985 / 0.7925
As mentioned in the morning, there is an important Resistance at 0.8080 today, which has held so far during the day. If and while it holds, a dip back towards 0.8000, or even 0.7950, might be seen.
In case of a break above 0.8080-8100, the Aussie may move up further towards 0.8180-87, the latter being the projected Max High for the Day.
In the bigger picture, the Aussie has been trending higher since the low of 0.6285 seen in March, earlier this year. There is Support at 0.7788 within this uptrend, as can be seen on the Weekly Candle on the following page:
Thus, in the bigger picture, while the Aussie remains above 0.7785, there might be chances of a further rise towards 0.82.
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