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Forex Blog - European market Update: Euro-Zone June Consumer Prices recorded its first annual decline; UK Q1 GDP revised lower to 50-year lows

Today 05:54am EST/09:54am GMT

European market Update: Euro-Zone June Consumer Prices recorded its first annual decline; UK Q1 GDP revised lower to 50-year lows



- (SZ) Swiss UBS Consumption Indicator: 0.772 v 0.912 prior

- (SA) May M3 Money Supply Y/Y: 7.3% v 8.3%e; Private Sector Credit Y/Y: 5.7% v 8.1%e

- (UK) Jun Nationwide House Prices M/M: 0.9% v 0.5%e; Y/Y: -9.3% v -10.8%e

- (HU) Hungarian Q1 Current Account: -€591M v -€1.5Be

- (FR) French Q1 Debt €1.41T v €1.33T prior; equates to 79.2% of GDP

- (FR) French May Producer Prices M/M: -0.3% v -0.2%e; Y/Y: -7.8% v -7.5%e

- (SP) Spain Q1 House Prices ToT Homes Q/Q: -2.7% v -3.1% prior, Y/Y: -7.6% v 5.4% prior

- (CZ) Czech May Preliminary Industrial Output: -21.7% v -18.0%e

- (HU) Hungarian May Producer Prices M/M: -2.0% v -1.9% prior, Y/Y: 6.2% v 6.0%e

- (TU) Turkish Q1 GDP Y/Y: -13.8% v -11.9%e

- (SP) Spain Apr Current Account: -€3.6B v -€6.5B prior

- (DE) Danish Q1 GDP Q/Q: -1.1% v -1.6%e; Y/Y: -4.1% v -4.0%e

- (SW) Swedish May Retail Sales M/M: +0.2% v -0.6%e; Y/Y: +4.4% v 1.8%e

- (SW) Swedish Apr Wages non-manual workers Y/Y: 2.3% v 3.1% prior

- (GE) German June Unemployment Change: 31K v 45Ke; Unemployment Rate: 8.3% v 8.3%e

- (IT) Italian May PPI M/M: -0.2% v 0.1%e; Y/Y:-6.7% v -6.5%e

- (NO) Norwegian May Credit Indicator Growth: 7.5% v 7.7%e

- (NO) Norwegian May Retail Sales M/M: 1.9% v -0.2e; Y/Y: -1.0% v -3.2%e

- (CZ) Czech May Money Supply Y/Y: 7.3% v 7.9% prior

- (EU) Euro-zone M3 Y/Y: 3.7% v 4.6e; 3M Ave: 4.5% v 4.9%e

- (UK) Q1 Final GDP Q/Q: -2.4% v -2.1%e; Y/Y: -4.9% v -4.3%e

- (UK) Q1 Current Account: -£-8.5B v -£6.7Be

- (UK) Q1 Final Total Business Investment: -7.6% v -5.5%e; Y/Y: -9.7% v -6.8%e

- (IT) Italian June Prelim CPI (incl tobacco) M/M: 0.1% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: 0.5% v 0.7%e

- (IT) Italian June Prelim CPI- EU Harmonized M/M: 0.2% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: 0.6% v 0.6%e

- (EU) Euro-zone June CPI Estimate Y/Y: -0.1% v -0.2%e; First negative reading since Euro launch

- (IR) Irish Q1 GDP Q/Q: -1.5% v -7.1% prior, Y/Y: -8.5% v -7.5% prior

- (SA) South Africa Q2 BER Consumer Confidence: 4 v 5e


- In equities news overnight: Mixed equity sentiment out of Asia pointed towards a lower European open and pre-market trend. This weight was lifted by UK June Nationwide house prices that were not only ahead of expectations, but a positive read. This figure pushed future trading higher and European markets opened on a positive footing led by the FTSE100. In first trades, sector and regional performance was secondary to individual equity news with broadly mixed performance. Expectations for German June unemployment and Euro Zone CPI weighed on equity trading and markets turned south within ten minutes of trading, the FTSE went negative at 3:15EST while the DAX and CAC sliding into the red just past 3:20EST. Though mixed, weakness in Consumer Goods and Consumer Services underperformed with Carrefour [CA.FR] trending lower throughout its analyst day. Equities trended sharply lower ahead of the German employment figures. Equities printed their session lows ahead of the official release at 4:00EST. With the change at 31K, better than expectations (though widely seen as effect of accounting rule changes), equity markets recovered off their lows. Trading remained hesitant up to the
UK final GDP release at 4:30EST. This figure, below previous readings at -2.4% stunted the upward trend. For the remainder of the 4:00EST hr, markets hovered in negative territory before moving through the unchanged line (for the DAX and CAC) at 5:00ET after Euro-zone CPI readings. This spike, while temporary highlights a continued positive trending with the CAC and DAX effective flat on the session with the FTSE only slightly performing at -0.25% as of 5:15EST. In light volumes, equities held this trend and level through 5:30EST as European bourses pushed halfway through the final trading day of Q2.

-In individual equities: HSBC [HSBA.UK] Chairman: Financial crisis remains far from over. || BP [BP.UK] Consortium led by BP has been granted contract for Iraqi Rumaila oil field . Details of bid not released, Earlier XOM dropped out of bidding for site. || British Airlines [BAY.UK] Pay negotiations between the airline and trade union leaders are entering a critical 48 hours - Guardian. British Airways is seeking to secure a deal ahead of Tuesday's deadline. || HMV [HMV.UK] Reports Prelim FY09 Pretax £63M v £62.1Me, Rev £1.96B v £1.9Be, LFL sales -0.4% y/y. UK & Ireland like for like sales up 1.9%, Waterstone's like for like sales down 3.8%. || BG [BG.UK] Reaches pact with BG Group for Joint Development of Its Haynesville Shale and Other Operations in East Texas/North Louisiana. Pursuant to a purchase and sale agreement (PSA), EXCO will sell BG Group a 50% interest in its producing and nonproducing assets in a large area of mutual interest (AMI) which encompasses most of EXCOs holdings in East Texas/North Louisiana, excluding the Vernon Field in Jackson Parish, Louisiana, the Redland Field in Bossier and Webster Parishes, Louisiana and the Gladewater and Overton Fields in Gregg, Rusk and Smith Counties in East Texas. ||
Antofagasta [ANTO.UK] Minera Esperanza achieves financial close. Minera Esperanza had signed definitive financing agreements for the $1B project financing of the Esperanza copper-gold project in Chile. || Arriva [ARI.UK] Provides interim trading statement: UK business unit continues to trade strongly. 5 month UK Business Revenues -5.2% y/y, has reduced commercially operated mileage by 3.3 per cent during the period to control costs whilst maintaining the viability of our network for future growth in the medium and longer term. || Yell Group [YELL.UK] Trading update: Q1 in line with estimates; Begins capital restructuring. Has embarked upon a process to comprehensively refinance the Group. Q1 revenues are expected to be around 11% lower, and Q1 EBITDA is expected to be around 20% lower than the comparable period last year. || Wolseley [WOS.UK] CEO Chip Hornsby has stepped down as Group Chief Executive with immediate effect. Ian Meakins will succeed Chip as Group Chief Executive with effect from 13 July 2009. || Peugeot [UG.FR] Reportedly increases bond issue to €575M from €500M prior. Over allotment was fully exercised. || GDF Suez [GSZ.FR] Acquires 20% in exploration and production in Azerbaijan gas block. Total and SOCAR to take 40% stakes each in operation. || Arcandor [ARO.GE] Reportedly, German government agrees to financial support equal to €50M for the company's Quelle unit. Quelle is the company's mail-order unit. || TomTom [TOM2.NV] Announces 4 for 8 rights issue to be placed at €4.21/share (51% discount from Monday's close). Reminder: 14 June 2009, we announced our intention to raise €430M (42% of market cap) in a fully committed/underwritten equity offering consisting of a €359M rights offering and a €71M private placement. ||

- Speakers: Bundesbank Zeitler commented that many economic indicators point towards stabilization later this year 2009. Zeitler added that he saw a gradual recovery in certain centers of crisis but there are doubts whether banks increased loan loss provision are enough to absorb downturn. He did note that the ECB government bond program was helping German Government || (JP) Japan Fin Min Yosano commented that one cannot assume that bond yields would stay at current low levels. Rise in long term bond yields were a largest concern when drafting the budget ||| German Labor Office chief Wiese commented that adjusted jobless would increase by 40K for July but was difficult to forecast further out. He noted that German unemployment would not rise to 5M in 2010 but would top 4M level. The agency noted that German companies' use of short work programs to protect jobs during the downturn had kept unemployment numbers from rising. ||| Russian Central Bank reiterates that it might lower interest rates by 150bps without large risks this year. It noted that discussions hinge on whether to cut rate in increments of 25bps or 50bps. Since late Mar, the Russian Central Bank (CBR) has been lowering its repo rate from the recent high of 13.0% seen back in Feb. Its most recent rate cut was back on Jun 4th when it lowered the Refi Rate by 50bps to 11.50%. During the height of the global economic crisis, the CBR increased interest rates numerous time to combat the outflow of capital and to maintain a stable currency ||
Japan PM Aso commented that monetary policy was not working well in deflationary environment ||

- In Currencies: The session saw plenty of data but the month-end and quarter-end conditions sapped liquidity. Talk of month end USD selling coupled with the higher oil both contributing to the gains seen in the EUR/USD pair this session as it tested 1.4150 ahead of the equity open. GBP rose by 100 pips to 1.6744 after Jun Nationwide house price data but retreated towards 1.6600 after the Q1` Final GDP reading was revised lower.

- The JPY was firmer against the majors ahead of the NY morning but off its best levels. Dealer chatter the Toshin demand was practically non-existent during the Asian session. One dealer noting that ¥170B in issues had less than ¥5B filled. Bank of Japan's tankan survey of corporate sentiment on Wednesday and an enlarged sale of 10-year notes on Thursday.

- In Energy: Bidding for Iraqi oil fields has commenced. A Consortium led by BP had been granted contract for Iraqi Rumaila oil field but details of bid were not released. || Venezuela Oil Min stated that he did not see need for OPEC to boost output production and mirrored members view that $75/bbl oil price was 'fair' price for the second half of 2009. The minister noted that the country was complying with OPEC output cuts || GDF Suez [GSZ.FR] Acquired 20% in exploration and production in
Azerbaijan. France's Total and SOCAR to take 40% stakes each in operation ||

- In Fixed Income Supply: Government bonds are undergoing some corrective selling this morning in
Europe after yesterdays aggressive buying into month and quarter end. UK and US yield curves are a touch flatter with more pronounced selling of shorter maturities but it's a different story altogether in Germany where the Bund is under pressure and the rest of the curve is bid. The Euro-Zone Cpi estimate posted its first negative reading on record in June, providing a boost to short dated European bonds ahead of the ECB's rate decision on Thursday. Three Month euribor improved for the 18th successive session to fix at another record low of 1.099%.

*** NOTES ***

- Dealers noting that there is plenty of data out during the trading day but the month-end and quarter-end conditions sapping liquidity conditions

- The data out in Europe was a 'mixed bag' with UK Nationwide House data keeping the 'green shoot' theory on the front burner but its Q1 Final GDP showed just how deep the crater is to crawl out of. headline q/q decline was the largest since Q2 of 1958. The annual decline was the largest since comparable records began in 1948

- German unemployment data continues to beat expectations but companies are shortening working hours to protect jobs

- Euro-Zone M3 data hinting that credit conditions remain quite tight

- Euro-Zone June Consumer Prices recorded its first annual decline

- AIG disclosed new risk on derivatives sold to European banks

***Looking Ahead***

- 8:00 (PD) Polish Current Account: -€79Me v -€5.12B prior

- 8:00 (SA) South Africa May Trade Balance (ZAR): -2.0Be v -1.5B prior

- 8:30 (CA) Canadian May Industrial Product Price M/M: -0.6%e v -0.5% prior' Raw Materials Price Index M/M: 2.0%e v -0.5% prior

- 8:30 (CA) Canadian Apr GDP M/M: -0.1%e v -0.3% prior

- 8:30 (CL) Chile May Total Copper Production: No estimate versus 425.9K tons

- 9:00 (US) Apr S&P/CaseShiller Home Price Index: no expectations v 139.99 prior, Composite 20 Y/Y: -18.63%e v -18.70% prior

- 9:45 (US) June Chicago Purchasing Manager Index: 39.0e v 34.9 prior

- 10:00 (US) June Consumer Confidence: 55.3e v 54.9 prior

- 10:00 (US) June NAPM Milwaukee: 45.0e v 43.0 prior

- 10:00 (TU) Turkey May Trade Balance: $ v -$3.4Be

- 11:00 (US) Treasury coupon repurchase ( 2016 - 2019's)


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