Tuesday June 30, 2009 - 12:17:55 GMT
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FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com
FX Thoughts for the day : 30-JUN-2009 - 1216 GMT
EURO, JAP YEN and EURO-YEN
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Our comments on Dollar-Swiss, Sterling Pound and Australian Dollar are given below
USD-CHF @ 1.0793/99...Looks bearish; holding Short
R: 1.0813 / 1.0834-70 / 1.0917
S: 1.0695 / 1.0586 / 1.0554
Dollar-Swiss has traded in a very narrow range 1.0780-1.0828 during the day and is looking to come down towards the lower end of the medium term range at 1.0640. We are holding a Short in this anticipation. For now, the Resistance near 1.0870 is likely to be honoured over the next few days which may keep the pair pressured downwards.
In the medium term, the pair is moving in a channel ranged between 1.0640-1.1030 over the last several days and unless this breaks, one may buy on dips and sell on rallies.
USD 10K Short at 1.0812, SL 1.0894, TP 1.0680
GBP-USD @ 1.6586/90...Support at 1.6550
R: 1.6665-6700 / 1.6781 / 1.6916
S: 1.6585-50 / 1.6500 / 1.6467-41
Cable has risen sharply before the UK GDP numbers as it became a victim of "buy the news, sell the fact". It rose to record a high of 1.6744 and we got stopped out as it reversed most of the surge after the GDP data release. Whether this would be just a spike or a not, the pair has been able to chalk out the path for itself breaking past the important Resistance level of 1.6600-80. There's an immediate Support near 1.6550 immediately. If this holds, it can once again attempt to move higher. But a break of this Support is likely to target the lower end of the range in which the pair has been traversing over the last several days.
In the medium term, However, Cable looks good for a rise towards 1.70+.
AUD-USD @ 0.8143/47...Immediate Resistance region: 0.8140-80
R: 0.8140-80 / 0.8232-36 / 0.8462
S: 0.8087-50 / 0.8005 / 0.7983
Aussie has risen towards the Resistance region of 0.8140-80 as mentioned in the morning. A rise past this Resistance owing to rise in commodties does not look unreasonable even as the pair may possibly find Resistance next near the 3rd June High of 0.8266. If this Resistance region proves strong enough, the pair may move down towards 0.8050 during the US session.
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