Investors shrugged off slightly improved US home price data and the Chicago PMI to focus on the disappointing consumer confidence report. Near the close, the S&P500 is down 0.8%, continuing a two month sideways pattern. The consumer confidence report also knocked commodities, oil down 2.2% and copper down 2.1%. US 10yr treasury yields spiked over 10bp to 3.82% as recent long positions were squeezed and a large Oracle corporate bond issue was hedged, but the data reversed most of those losses to close +3bp.
The US dollar was moderately stronger on the selloff in risk. EUR, which had earlier ground higher to 1.4150, fell quickly to 1.4000. GBP spiked to 1.6745 at the London open, but slid thereafter to 1.6425, the negative surprise to the UK GDP revision (-2.2% q/q is the biggest contraction since 1958) helping it on its way. USD/JPY rose from 95.30 to 96.50, yesterday's poor Japanese jobs data denting the yen.
AUD fell from 0.8155 to 0.8040 on the broad-based flight from risk. An article from influential columnist Terry McCrann, suggesting no rate cut next Tuesday, had no currency impact.
NZD fell from 0.6550 to 0.6440, and the AUD/NZD cross rallied to a 1.2520 high
US Chicago PMI rose from 34.9 to 39.9 in June, with gains across all of the components - orders, production, prices paid and jobs. This survey has underperformed in the last couple of months, reflecting the region's exposure to the auto industry during the partial shutdowns by GM and Chrysler.
US NAPM Milwaukee rose from 43 to 50 in June, making it the second regional factory survey to suggest that activity is no longer contracting.
US Conference Board consumer confidence fell from 54.8 to 49.3 in June, against market expectations of a small gain. Present conditions fell from 29.7 to 24.8, while expectations fell from 71.5 to 65.5. Inflation expectations rose from 5.6% to 5.9%, which may explain some of the drop in confidence - there is evidence that consumers in this survey are more inflation-sensitive than in other surveys.
US Case Shiller house price index fell 0.6% in Apr, a much improved result compared to the 2%+ monthly declines seen since Oct last year. Indeed, prices actually rose in eight of the 20 cities covered in the survey. The annual rate of decline eased from 18.7% to 18.1%.
Japanese data: The Nomura manufacturing PMI improved from 46.6 to 48.2 and the small business confidence survey rose from 34.1 to 38.0. The unemployment rate rose to 5.2% in May (on expectations). The jobs-to-applicants ratio fell to 0.44 from 0.46, indicating that the economy is not generating anywhere near enough job opportunities to either absorb new entrants or the newly redundant. Real household spending is up 0.3%yr. Housing starts fell to an annualised level of 758k in May, well below expectations of an 800k rise. Construction orders also tumbled, down 41.9%yr in May after falling 25.9%yr in April.
Eurozone flash CPI estimate fell to -0.1%y/y in June, the first annual decline since the series began in 1996. Meanwhile, money supply growth slowed more than expected, with annual growth falling from 4.9% to 3.7%. These weak outcomes continue to provide ex-post justification for the ECB's monetary policy easing.
German unemployment rose by 31k in June, less than market forecasts. The unemployment rate ticked up to 8.3%.
UK Q1 GDP was revised from -1.9% to -2.4% in the final estimate, making it the largest quarterly drop since 1958. The biggest downward revisions were in construction and services, reflecting changes in the calculation methodology.
UK Nationwide house prices rose 0.9% in June, following a 1.3% rise in May. While the other myriad house price measures haven't shown the same degree of strength, there is growing evidence that the UK housing market is at least stabilising.
Currency market volatility is likely to be rise during the next 48 hours, a consequence of tonight's US ISM manufacturing survey, tomorrow's US payroll data, and the week ending a day early in the US. NZD could range as wide as 0.6350 to 0.6600 for the remainder of this week, with a bias towards the upside. Today's Westpac employment confidence report for Q2 (released at ) is not yet widely publicised, so market reaction may be minimal.
Daily Forex Market News Forex news reports can be found on the forex research
headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports
provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex
market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found
Forex News Real-time forex market news reports and features providing
other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the
headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest
forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less
recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines
and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports
from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."
Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.
Tue 17 July 2018 AA 08:30 GB- Employment A 13:15 US- Industrial Production AA 14:00 US-Powell Testimony Wed 18 July 2018 AA 08:30 GB- CPI A 12:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits AA 14:00 US-Powell Testimony Thu 19 July 2018 AA 1:30 AU- Employment AA 08:30 GB- Retail Sales A 14:30 US- EIA Crude A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless Fri 20 Jun 2018 A 12:30 CA- CPI/Retail Sales
John M. Bland, MBA co-founding Partner, Global-View.com
Global-View Affiliate Program
We are starting an affiliate program to market some of our products.
Send me an email if you would be interested or if you know someone who would like to be an affiliate. Generous commissions payout for those accepted.
Put the word "affiliate" in the email subject line.
Veteran FX Trader, Max McKegg, forecasts all the Major currencies and the Australasians; providing Daily and Medium Term Trading forecasts to subscribers, who include large Banks the world over, as well as individual traders in more than 30 different countries.
looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are
more critical things to consider than you might have thought.
We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View
has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've
seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.
The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.
The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.
Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by Global-View.com.
The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.
Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.
Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.
Global-View.com also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at Global-View.com. This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.
WARNING: FOREIGN EXCHANGE TRADING AND INVESTMENT IN DERIVATIVES
CAN BE VERY SPECULATIVE AND MAY RESULT IN LOSSES AS WELL AS PROFITS. FOREIGN
EXCHANGE AND DERIVATIVES TRADING IS NOT SUITABLE FOR MANY MEMBERS OF THE
PUBLIC AND ONLY RISK CAPITAL SHOULD BE APPLIED. THE WEBSITE DOES NOT TAKE
INTO ACCOUNT SPECIAL INVESTMENT GOALS, THE FINANCIAL SITUATION OR SPECIFIC
REQUIREMENTS OF INDIVIDUAL USERS. YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER YOUR FINANCIAL
SITUATION AND CONSULT YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISORS AS TO THE SUITABILITY TO YOUR
SITUATION PRIOR TO MAKING ANY INVESTMENT OR ENTERING INTO ANY TRANSACTIONS.