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Forex Blog - European Market Update: Euro-Zone PMI Manufacturing data continues trend of improvemnt; China PBoC advises sees "U" shape economic recovery takling hold

Today 06:06am EST/10:06am GMT

European Market Update: Euro-Zone PMI Manufacturing data continues trend of improvemnt; China PBoC advises sees "U" shape economic recovery takling hold


- (IN) India Jun Manufacturing PMI: 55.3 v 55.7 prior

- (IN) India May Trade Balance: Exports Y/Y: -29.2% v -33.2% prior; Imports Y/Y: -39.2% v -36.6% prior

- (RU) Russian Q1 Current Account: $9.1B v $10.8Be

- (GE) German May Retail Sales M/M: 0.4% v 0.0%e; Y/Y: -2.9% v -1.5%e

- (SW) Swedsh Swedbank June PMI Survey: 50.5 v 45.0e

- (HU) Hungary Jun PMI: 45.8 v 45.4 prior

- (TU) Turkey June Manufacturing PMI: 53.9 v 51.0 prior

- (SP) Spain June Manufacturing PMI: 42.8 v 39.8 prior

- (DE) Danish Retail Sales M/M: -0.2% v 0.5%e; Y/Y: -7.1% v -6.8% prior

- (SZ) Swiss June SVME PMI: 41.8 v 41.0e

- (CZ) Czech June PMI: 41.9 v 40.5 prior

- (IT) Italian June Final PMI Manufacturing: 42.7 v 42.5e

- (FR) French June Final PMI Manufacturing: 45.9 v 45.5e

- (GE) German June Final PMI Manufacturing: 40.9 v 40.5e

- (EU) Eurozone June Final PMI Manufacturing: 42.6 v 42.4e

- (UK) June PMI Manufacturing: 47.0 v 46.4e

- (UK) Apr Index of Services Q/Q: -1.2% v -1.6% prior

- (SA) South African Kagiso PMI: 37.9 v 39.3e

- 6:00 (IR) Irish June Unemployment Rate: 11.9% v 11.6% prior


- In equities news overnight: Equity markets in Europe started the 3rd Quarter with a sharply positive start. Equity futures recovered from a precipitous 1:00EST fall based on lower than expected June Indian manufacturing figures. Positive
UK earnings in the Retail sector from Marks & Spencer [MKS.UK] mirrored positive comments from Carrefour [CA.FR] lifted European pre-market futures trading. This sector performance was further aided by German May retail numbers, showing 3rd consecutive positive reading and ahead of expectations. Upward equity trending accelerated past 3:13EST following the release of Spanish June PMI's reading their best level in over 1-yr. Outside of Retail sector performance, heavy industrial took heart from comments out of ThyssenKrupp [TKA.GE] regarding ore negotiation and order volumes by trading higher. Oil and gas sector names along with basic resource firms rounded out the upward equity lift. Before 3:30EST, bourses passed the +1.00% mark and threatened the +2.00% line by 3:45EST. Equities steadied their advance by 4:00EST all trading around the +1.50% mark. This range was held in a tight bank through 4:00EST and into 5:00EST. Sector rotation remained in line with the opening moves as financials, energy and basic resource names held their positive trend levels. Volumes proved robust with the DAX and FTSE trading ahead of their average levels and the CAC only slightly lower. For the DAX, heavy volume printed in Commerzbank [CBK.GE] underscored this action as shares surged as high as 17% on the session. Rumor regarding Commerzbank has been rampant, focusing on possible removal of CEO and groups participation in a German Bad Bank Scheme (aided by note out of Morgan Stanley).

-In individual equities: Marks and Spencer [MKS.UK] Reported Q1 UK Like for Like Sales -1.4% y/y v -2.7%e, Total Group Sales +2.9% y/y. Online sales +28% y/y, International sales +15.9% y/y, UK General Merchandise -2.4%y/y; Food -0.5% y/y. CEO: "Consumer confidence appears to be stabilizing. However, we remain cautious about the outlook for the remainder of this and next year and will continue to run the business accordingly. " || Sodexho [SW.FR] Reports Q3 Rev €3.77B v €3.39B y/y (€3.8Be); Confirms FY09 targets. Net debt to equity ratio amounted to 50% as of
28 February 2009. Targeting for FY09: organic revenue growth between 2% and 5%, consolidated revenue growth, at constant currency exchange rates, between 4% and 7%, operating profit of between €730-760M v €744.4Me. || ThyssenKrupp [TKA.GE] Order intake in June higher than May levels; seeking iron ore price cuts at greater than 30%. To raise prices for steel effective immediately by undisclosed amount. || EADS [EAD.FR] Reportedly awarded €2.5B Saudi contract -Le Point. Operations for some electronic defense border control programs. Article states that formal publication to be released later Wed afternoon. ||National Express [NEX.UK] Provides Trading Statement: Trading conditions throughout the H1 have remained challenging; CEO Richard Bowker to step down. All of businesses have experienced difficult market conditions, whether in reduced passenger volumes or in lower growth in yield. H1 Revenue expected +5% y/y, Higher fuel costs to add £11M to overall costs in H1. || Anite [AIE.UK] Reports FY09 Pretax £18.1M v £16.4Me, Rev £90.1M v £89.9Me. || Lloyds [LLOY.UK] UK banker Sir Win Bischoff is the leading candidate to become the new chairman - FT. || Anheuser Busch InBev ABI.BE: to sell 4 metal beverage container plants for $577M to Ball. Will subsequently enter long term supply agreement with Ball. || Cattles [CTT.UK] CEO to leave, effective immediately. || Aberdeen [ADN.UK] Closes acquisition of some Credit Suisse assets for final consideration of £297.6M. || Tesco [TSCO.UK] Company may be a potential bidder for Northern Rock - London Times. Current gov may be seeking to seel the nationalized lender at a profit prior to next election cycle to prove the merit and success of their 2008/09 rescue schemes. || BA [BAY.UK] Company wants to cut 5K jobs (11% of work force), institute pay freeze for 2 years - Sky News. || RBS [RBS.UK] Reportedly, Australia's ANZ Bank is in advanced talks to buy the firm's retail and commercial banking operations in at least 5 Asian countries. Targeting former ABN Amro assets in Hong Kong, Taiwan, Singapore, Vietnam and Indonesia. Update: Standard Charter continues to be interested in assets in China, India and Malaysia. || Balfour Beatty [BBY.UK] Joint venture company in South East Asia has been awarded a contract in excess of £120M. || Areva [EI.FR]Seeking to place 15% stake in transmission and distribution unit -CGT Official. Proceeds from sale of unit to be used to finance expansion in nuclear power operations. Seeking to move quickly on capital raising plan, in discussions with Mitsubishi Heavy amongst others. || Carrefour [CA.FR] Expects 1H operating profit down 28%; 1H like-for-like sales up 1.6%, ex-forex; total revenue up 0.2%. Aiming to cut costs by €500M; currently on track for goals in 2009. CEO sees stabilizing trends, but no improvement; on track for €4.5B in cost cutting by 2012. || BASF [BAS.GE] See effects of current crisis lasting for considerable period of time -Sueddeutshce.Group has no financing problems, some customers have been faced with financing problems. || Deutsche Euroshop [DEQ.GE] CEO: Group is interested in 2 Karstadt department stores from Arcandor. Targeting stores in Viernheim and Dessau to expand geographic exposure. || Toyota [TM] Fitch cuts long-term foreign and local currency issuer default ratings and sr unsecured debt ratings by 2 notches to A+ from AA; Outlook Negative. According to Fitch, fundamentals in the automobile industry are likely to remain weak in the medium-term, making it difficult for automakers to regain levels of profitability reached in the easy-credit-fuelled boom which came to an end in Q408. || Iberdrola [IBE.SP] Sells stake in Sagunto and Bahia De Vizcaya facilities for €200M to Rreef Infrastructure. || ING [INGA.NV] To combine Dutch insurance organizations; to cut 800 jobs in course of 3 yrs (less than 1% of workforce). Expect to invest €165M into new unit over 4 years. Will see positive P&L effects from restructuring as soon at 2010. || VoestAlpin [VOE.AS] CEO: says 10.3K workers on shortened work week an end of May; Does not see 'substantial' increase in short work, expects H1 loss , profit for FY2009/2010. ||

- Speakers:
China's PBoC Advisor Fan Gang commented that China's current economic recovery was sustainable and would be "U" shaped. He noted that Chinese exports would be growing by end of 2009 (TTN Note: Chinese exports have declined for the last seven months). ||Bundesbank's Weber commented that he saw a gradual recovery in the economy. However, het stated that the country would not return to growth before mid-2010 ||| Polish Dep Fin Min Suchocka-Roguska stated that the YTD budget deficit close to PLN16.9B target ||| S&P affirmed Japan's AA/A-1 sovereign ratings. The agency noted that Japan has capacity to withstand increasing fiscal pressure and believes that the high level of fiscal deficits would not last and sees them returning to prior levels. ||| German Retail assoc HDE lowered its 2009 nominal retail sales view to -2% compared to their prior range of down 1.0% to unchanged. ||| Former BOE member Lomax commented that there were "significant risk' that credit squeeze would limit economic recovery and that neither the economic crisis nor recession have subsided just yet. He noted that any UK recovery would be 'bumpy' and that withdrawal of massive policy stimulus would be 'delicate'. He did concede that UK output was showing signs of stabilization || German Fin Min Steinbrueck reiterated the view that no credit crunch seen in Germany at this time, but confesses that a 'squeeze' seen in part of country. He did note that there could see difficulties in H2 of 2009 for financing and that banks needed to pass on ECB interest rate cuts

- In Currencies: The new month and quarter whimpered in with little enthusiasm as the risk appetite and risk averse sentiments continue to battle it out. The continued trend of better-than-expected PMI readings help to sooth the appetite for risk. The USD and JPY related pairs were softer as European equity markets rose in the session. The EUR/USD continues to have difficulties breaking below the 1.40 level and drifted towards the 1.4070 level during the morning. PBoC Advisor Fan Gang comments that
China would experience a "U" shape recovery seemed to provided additional optimism for risk appetite. USD/JPY was higher and tested the 97 handle during the morning.

- In Energy: Aug NYMEX crude futures were near their electronic session highs as the NY morning approach. Aug at $71.16/barrel and up around $1.25 in after-hours trading. Sentiment helped by the better-than-expected European Manufacturing PMI readings and constructive comments from a Chinese central bank advisor on the shape of the economic recovery.

- In Fixed Income Supply: German tapped €5B of the existing 10y Bund, with sluggish demand as auction drew the lowest bid-to-cover for German supply since February. Meanwhile, the
UK sold €5.25B in 5y Gilts with a strong cover ratio of 2.65 times. Gilts have subsequently outperformed on a cross markets basis with buying in all parts of the curve. There is steepening bias on both sides of the Atlantic with better buying of short end issues. Three month euribor improved another basis point to fix at 1.085%

- Geo-political Events: US State Dept Head of Policy Planning Slaughter stated that he hoped
US 'engagement' policy would work with Iran. However, he did not not exclude any potential 'confrontation' with the country

*** NOTES ***

- China's PBoC Advisor Fan Gang commented that China's current economic recovery was sustainable and would be "U" shaped

- (US) June Monster Employment Index M/M: 117 v 118

- Fed's Yellen: Worried about drag on economic recovery from rising oil prices, more worried Fed will tighten too soon

- China's PMI rises for the 4th straight month; India stalls

- Japan's Tankan rebounds less than expected to -48

***Looking Ahead***US employment picture to be the focus the next 24 hours

- 7:00 (US) MBA Mortgage Applications w/e Jun 26th: No expectations v 6.6% prior

- 7:30 (US) June Challenger job Cuts Y/Y: No expectations v 7.4% prior

- 8:15 (US) June ADP Employment Change: -395Ke v -532K prior

- 10:00 (BR) Brazil June Trade Balance: $43Be v $26.5B prior

- 10:00 (US) June ISM Manufacturing: 44.6e v 42.8 prior, Prices Paid: 47.0e v 43.5 prior

- 10:00 (US) May Construction Spending M/M: -0.6%e v 0.8% prior

- 10:00 (US) May Pending Home Sales M/M:0.0%e v 6.7% prior, Y/Y: No expectations 3.3% prior

- 10:00 (UK) BoE to conduct £3B 5-10y Gilt reverse auction

- 11:00 (US) Fed to conduct coupon purchase (2019 - 2026)


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