The U.S. Dollar felt pressure overnight because of stronger
Asian and European stock markets and struggled even more after the release of
the ADP Employment Services Report.
The move into equities overnight triggered more demand for
higher yielding assets and kept pressure on the low yielding U.S. Dollar.The move was a surprise because of tomorrowâ€™s
U.S. Unemployment Report.Some traders
felt the rally was overdone because of thin trading conditions ahead of the
Wednesdayâ€™s ADP Employment Services Report encouraged more
selling pressure on the Dollar as the actual report fell 26,000 jobs short of
pre-report guesses.The actual number of
jobs lost was 473,000 versus a guess of 498,000.
Despite being better than expected, this report showed that
the labor market is still worsening while the whole U.S. economy may be showing
signs of improvement.Investors realize
that labor is a lagging indicator and that improvements may not be seen for
months.Nonetheless, this number showed
that tomorrow the unemployment rate may hit 10%.
The EURUSD poked its head over a main top at 1.4177 to
technically turn the main trend to up.There was no acceleration to the upside following this move which leads
me to believe that thin market conditions helped to contribute to the attempted
The European Central Bank meets tomorrow.Traders expect the ECB to leave interest
rates unchanged at 1.0% even though earlier in the week, the Euro Zone reported
negative inflation.Instead of cutting
rates, the ECB may be considering an alternative stimulus plan to help revive
the economy.Traders will be glued to
the comments after the report to help gauge future movement of this currency
Among investor concerns is the price level of the Euro.Some investors fear the ECB will take action
if the rise in the Euro shows that it has had a negative effect on Euro Zone
Traders continued to react negatively to the report showing
the U.K. economy had its biggest drop since 1958.The recession currently being felt by Britain
is now even deeper than previously estimated.The Bank of England is on record warning people that the road to
recovery will be long and hard.
After posting a new high for the year yesterday, the GBP USD
closed lower and followed through to the downside today.The short-term weakness is no threat to the
uptrend, but a close under 1.6522 on Friday will reverse the week to down and
could lead to selling pressure next week.
The USD JPY continued its slow grind higher on Wednesday,
but weakened into the close as traders took precautions ahead of tomorrowâ€™s
U.S. Non-Farm Payroll Report.Some
traders lightened up their positions while others bucked the trend and went
short in anticipation of a worse than expected employment number.
Traders are estimating that tomorrowâ€™s U.S. Non Farm Payroll
Report will show a loss of 365,000 jobs in June.This figure would push the U.S. Unemployment
Rate to 9.6%.Because of Fridayâ€™s U.S.
market holiday, it is hard to say whether traders will be around to trade the
number or if they will wait until Monday to trade the news.Either way, the initial reaction should be
volatile especially if the guesses miss by a lot.
Disclaimer: Trading foreign
exchange on the margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable
for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as
for you. Before deciding to trade foreign exchange you should carefully
consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite.
The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your
initial investment and therefore should not invest money that you cannot afford
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Tue 17 July 2018 AA 08:30 GB- Employment A 13:15 US- Industrial Production AA 14:00 US-Powell Testimony Wed 18 July 2018 AA 08:30 GB- CPI A 12:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits AA 14:00 US-Powell Testimony Thu 19 July 2018 AA 1:30 AU- Employment AA 08:30 GB- Retail Sales A 14:30 US- EIA Crude A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless Fri 20 Jun 2018 A 12:30 CA- CPI/Retail Sales
John M. Bland, MBA co-founding Partner, Global-View.com
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