- Markets on both sides of the Atlantic are experiencing a fresh bout of risk aversion after North Korea test fired three short range missiles, the ECB left rates unchanged, and US June non-farm payrolls figures reaffirmed a dismal employment environment remains entrenched. European Bourses and US Indices are all moving out to new lows after the NY open weighed down by another 467K jobs lost last month. That number handily beat consensus expectations to the downside while weekly jobless claims remained above 600K for the 22nd straight week. The news enhanced the bid into the Greenback and government backed bonds, well also sending stocks and commodities lower. August crude is trading down 3.3% below $67 for the first time in more than a week. A move towards $66 would take oil to its lowest levels in nearly a month.
- US Treasury prices have found buyers following the data with the curve steepening on better demand at the short end. The 2-year cash yield has dropped below 1% for the first time in a month. The US benchmark yield as worked back below 3.5% which appears to be a bit of a battle ground heading into next week. Traders are awaiting a key refunding announcement from US Treasury where they will announce the quarterly 10-year TIPS auction along with the sizes of next week's regular monthly 3, 10 and 30-year sales.
- Stocks are being dragged lower across the board, but it is important to note the volumes are extremely light in front of the Independence Day holiday weekend. Commodity and economically sensitive names are being particularly hard hit. The OIH and XAU are each down more than 5% hurt by a firmer US Dollar. The DJ Transportations average is confirming today's weakness down 3% despite a premarket upgrade in the airlines. One standout group to the upside are the potash names. The stocks are generally moving higher on reports Uralkali reached an agreement in Russia to raise potash prices by up to 20%. Shares of Elan are also surging after announcing an agreement with JNJ for the purchase of their alzheimer's program.
- The USD continued its modest recovery as the holiday-shortened week drew to a close. Officials downplaying the reserve currency topic at next week's G8 summit initially aided the USD. Following the US payroll data, the risk aversion theme crept back into the overall sentiment and further favored the USD. EUR/USD tested the 1.4000 level as the mid- NY morning approached. The JPY also benefited from the decrease in risk appetite. The ECB maintained its interest rate at 1.0%, as expected and reiterated that the current interest rate level was appropriate but not necessarily the lowest.
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Mon 18 Dec
10:00 EZ- final HICP Tue 19 Dec
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
13:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
13:30 US- Current Account Wed 20 Dec
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
15:30 US- EIA Crude Thu 21 Dec
03:00 JP- BOJ Decision
13:30 CA- CPI & Retail Sales
13:30 US Weely Jobless
13:30 US- GDP Fri 22 Dec
09:30 US- GB- GDP
13:30 US- core PCE Deflator & Presonal Income
15:00 US- New Homes Sales
15:00 US- final University of Michigan
17:00 US- early Closes Mon 25 Dec
00:00 Christmas Holidays
Potential Trading Opportunities
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Mon--10:00 GMT-- EZ- final November HICP. flash data are rarely changed.
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium Tue --09:00 GMT-- DE- IFO Survey. Key report but usually not a market-mover
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium- Tue --13:30 GMT-- US- Housing Starts and Permits. Leading indicators of activity
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Wed --15:00-- US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing statistic
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