Wednesday January 26, 2005 - 01:54:32 GMT
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Forex: Daily Forecast for the U.S. Dollar vs Swiss Franc 26th January 2005 Price:
Resistance: 1.1958 ... 1.1986 ... 1.2012 ... 1.2040
Support....: 1.1911 ... 1.1875 ... 1.1850 ... 1.1825
While 1.1911 supports we are cautiously bullish for 1.2012 at least
The break above 1.1900 has provided a lift to 1.1971 from where a pullback is underway. While this holds above the 1.1911 Fibonacci support area we feel the risk lies more for a further rally to 1.2012 at least. We suspect this may hold. brach would imply a move to 1.2040 before lower again. Further resistance lies at 1.2083-92.
The break higher saw a marginal new high but price is once again struggling. However, only a break of 1.1900-11 would cause us to feel we have seen a further unsustainable high. Break of 1.1911 would imply losses back to 1.1875-85 and break there would allow losses to drift lower to 1.1850 and 1.1825-35 at least. Further support is found at 1.1788 and 1.1747.
Elliott Wave Comments:
26th January 2005
The break to a new high appears to confirm the bullish structure though this is by no means a clean wave count higher. However, following the bullish count we would expect to see a move to 1.2012 in Wave iii of Wave C followed by a short Wave iv and a Wave v which would then complete Wave c at around 1.2083-92. This would represent Wave c as 138.2% of Wave a and Wave -iii- being 138.2% of Wave -i-. This would then be followed by a correction in Wave -iv- and final rally in Wave -v- to 1.2130-40 where Wave (c) is equal to Wave (a) and Wave (iii) is 261.8% of Wave (i).
The only risk to this we see is a move below 1.1747-88 which would then appear to favor losses back down to 1.1625 in an expanded flat correction. However, we give this low risk weighting.
(c) FX-Strategy Inc 2005
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